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how long?
Seems to me that, there's so much development happening, in every facet of the industry, that I wouldn't touch any prediction. Unknown quantities suddenly become known. Materials technology. Mass production capability. Innovation in materials processing. Work-arounds. Basic research. Alternate materials. Substitutes. On and on and on..................
Looking at photographs of the streets of New York City, New York. It took thirteen ( 13 ) years for motor vehicles to displace horse-drawn vehicles.
Carrots and sticks may determine the timeline.
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Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
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