Go Back   EcoModder Forum > EcoModding > Fossil Fuel Free
Register Now
 Register Now
 

Reply  Post New Thread
 
Submit Tools LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 05-24-2021, 07:17 AM   #1 (permalink)
EcoModding Apprentice
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Macon,GA
Posts: 149

Ruint Taco - '19 Toyota Tacoma SR Double Cab
90 day: 24.01 mpg (US)
Thanks: 86
Thanked 35 Times in 27 Posts
how much longer for the ICE now Americia's best selling Vehicle has gone electric?

I'm sure this has been discussed, but looking at this after Americias best selling vehicle turns 100% electric. Just my thoughts. If Ford can produce all the F-150 electrics to meet to demand, this a game changer. But, has I said elewhere, I think we will see a very limited supply.

But here is my point. there are 276 million cars in the USA

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/

And we can make and sell about 18 million a year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1951/

276 million divided by 18 million = 15.3 years, just to make and sell enough EVs to replace the ICE.

I think we are 7-8 years away from the point where Evs out number the sales of ICE.

This might be to simplitic, but I think we have at least 15 more years of ICE being the majority of vehicles on the road.

Also, there are remote areas where EVs will never replace ICE anytime soon. In areas where there is no GRID and not much sun, think Alaska, parts of Canada.

What's you best guess on when ICE will be 50% replaced?

__________________


Last edited by Vwbeamer; 05-24-2021 at 07:18 AM.. Reason: grammer
  Reply With Quote
Alt Today
Popular topics

Other popular topics in this forum...

   
Old 05-24-2021, 08:17 AM   #2 (permalink)
EcoModding Apprentice
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: Germany
Posts: 207

Aerospyder - '00 Toyota MR2 Spyder
Team Toyota
90 day: 39.67 mpg (US)

Simme - '83 IFA Simson Suhl S51
Motorcycle
Thanks: 21
Thanked 114 Times in 91 Posts
The average age of a car in the US was 11,9 years in 2020.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...projected-age/
The age has been increasing slowly by about 0,1 years every year.
So I'd assume the 50% mark will be reached in the late 2030s/early 2040s if EV sales increase further.
50% sales should be reached by mid/late 2020s as manufacturers are finaly releasing the kinds of vehicles average consumers would buy.

That's just a guess, don't take it too seriously.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Autobahnschleicher For This Useful Post:
Vwbeamer (05-24-2021)
Old 05-24-2021, 08:36 AM   #3 (permalink)
EV convert
 
oil pan 4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: NewMexico (USA)
Posts: 9,434

Sub - '84 Chevy Diesel Suburban C10
SUV
90 day: 19.5 mpg (US)

camaro - '85 Chevy Camaro Z28

Riot - '03 Kia Rio POS
Team Hyundai
90 day: 30.21 mpg (US)

Bug - '01 VW Beetle GLSturbo
90 day: 26.43 mpg (US)

Sub2500 - '86 GMC Suburban C2500
90 day: 11.95 mpg (US)

Snow flake - '11 Nissan Leaf SL
SUV
90 day: 141.63 mpg (US)
Thanks: 226
Thanked 3,087 Times in 2,408 Posts
Ahhhh no.
Every time a major manufacturer produces tens of thousands more electric vehicles that always causes battery shortages.
Last time I checked DoE expects 70% of new car sales to be straight gas burners in 2030.
I say go electric, the more gasoline we export the better.
__________________
1984 chevy suburban, custom made 6.5L diesel turbocharged with a Garrett T76 and Holset HE351VE, 22:1 compression 13psi of intercooled boost.
1989 firebird mostly stock. Aside from the 6-speed manual trans, corvette gen 5 front brakes, 1LE drive shaft, 4th Gen disc brake fbody rear end.
2011 leaf SL, white, portable 240v CHAdeMO, trailer hitch, new batt as of 2014.
  Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to oil pan 4 For This Useful Post:
Vwbeamer (05-25-2021)
Old 05-24-2021, 10:57 AM   #4 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Tampa, FL
Posts: 1,630

Volt, gas only - '12 Chevrolet Volt Premium
90 day: 38.02 mpg (US)

Volt, electric only - '12 Chevrolet Volt Premium
90 day: 132.26 mpg (US)

Yukon Denali Hybrid - '12 GMC Yukon Denali Hybrid
90 day: 21.48 mpg (US)
Thanks: 185
Thanked 381 Times in 273 Posts
My prediction is it will be relatively fast adoption, as we see with Tesla's, then it will flatten as gasoline becomes very cheap from relative over production.

EVs will still be superior in most ways and likely the preferred option but with cheap gas, ICE vehicles will be around for quite some time I believe.
__________________




  Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to ksa8907 For This Useful Post:
Vwbeamer (05-25-2021)
Old 05-24-2021, 10:03 PM   #5 (permalink)
High Altitude Hybrid
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Gunnison, CO
Posts: 599

Avalon - '13 Toyota Avalon HV
90 day: 41.06 mpg (US)

Prius - '06 Toyota Prius
Thanks: 380
Thanked 191 Times in 142 Posts
I would like to see a quick EV adoption, but I'm a bit skeptical it will be quick. I guess it depends mainly on who drags their feet and who doesn't, and the reasons behind those things.

One thing that's kind of good for EV's, at least I think, is the chip shortage. With lower vehicle sales it makes sense for car companies to sell the bigger, more luxurious, more expensive models. And that fits in with EV's right now since it's kind of hard to make a $15,000 economy EV that would sell well.

But who knows. EV's aren't superior in everything just yet. Infrastructure is a big one. I tried an EV once and know how frustrating it can be not being able to travel in certain directions due to complete lack of places to charge from.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2021, 06:45 AM   #6 (permalink)
EcoModding Apprentice
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Macon,GA
Posts: 149

Ruint Taco - '19 Toyota Tacoma SR Double Cab
90 day: 24.01 mpg (US)
Thanks: 86
Thanked 35 Times in 27 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
Ahhhh no.
Every time a major manufacturer produces tens of thousands more electric vehicles that always causes battery shortages.
Last time I checked DoE expects 70% of new car sales to be straight gas burners in 2030.
I say go electric, the more gasoline we export the better.
Batteries. that why I don't think we will see a huge number of electric F150's. My esitimate is the cost of the battery pack is $16000 to $20000 for Ford. with that cost I think Ford is losing money or breaking even on the F-150 Lightening, maybe making a small profit in the higher trim levels.
__________________

  Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2021, 08:06 AM   #7 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
redneck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: SC Lowcountry
Posts: 1,519

Geo XL1 - '94 Geo Metro
Team Metro
Boat tails and more mods
90 day: 72.22 mpg (US)

Big, Bad & Flat - '01 Dodge Ram 3500 SLT
Team Cummins
90 day: 21.13 mpg (US)
Thanks: 198
Thanked 1,215 Times in 607 Posts
.

If subsidies go away...

Sales will go away...


But fear not.

The government knows what’s best...

😉


>

.
__________________
Quote:
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

Winston Churchill.


Disclaimer...

I’m not a climatologist, aerodynamicist, virologist, physicist, astrodynamicist or marine biologist..

But...

I play one on the internet.

  Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2021, 12:49 PM   #8 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
aerohead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sanger,Texas,U.S.A.
Posts: 12,784
Thanks: 20,500
Thanked 6,308 Times in 3,907 Posts
how long?

Seems to me that, there's so much development happening, in every facet of the industry, that I wouldn't touch any prediction. Unknown quantities suddenly become known. Materials technology. Mass production capability. Innovation in materials processing. Work-arounds. Basic research. Alternate materials. Substitutes. On and on and on..................
Looking at photographs of the streets of New York City, New York. It took thirteen ( 13 ) years for motor vehicles to displace horse-drawn vehicles.
Carrots and sticks may determine the timeline.
__________________
Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
  Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to aerohead For This Useful Post:
freebeard (05-25-2021), Isaac Zachary (05-25-2021)
Old 05-25-2021, 05:35 PM   #9 (permalink)
EV convert
 
oil pan 4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: NewMexico (USA)
Posts: 9,434

Sub - '84 Chevy Diesel Suburban C10
SUV
90 day: 19.5 mpg (US)

camaro - '85 Chevy Camaro Z28

Riot - '03 Kia Rio POS
Team Hyundai
90 day: 30.21 mpg (US)

Bug - '01 VW Beetle GLSturbo
90 day: 26.43 mpg (US)

Sub2500 - '86 GMC Suburban C2500
90 day: 11.95 mpg (US)

Snow flake - '11 Nissan Leaf SL
SUV
90 day: 141.63 mpg (US)
Thanks: 226
Thanked 3,087 Times in 2,408 Posts
With out subsidies and government money my 2011 leaf was almost a $40,000 compact car.
The $40,000 compact car market doesn't exist.
__________________
1984 chevy suburban, custom made 6.5L diesel turbocharged with a Garrett T76 and Holset HE351VE, 22:1 compression 13psi of intercooled boost.
1989 firebird mostly stock. Aside from the 6-speed manual trans, corvette gen 5 front brakes, 1LE drive shaft, 4th Gen disc brake fbody rear end.
2011 leaf SL, white, portable 240v CHAdeMO, trailer hitch, new batt as of 2014.
  Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2021, 06:20 PM   #10 (permalink)
It's all about Diesel
 
cRiPpLe_rOoStEr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Posts: 9,632
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1,139 Times in 1,001 Posts
Besides range anxiety, recharging infrastructure and battery costs, weather and other environmental factors may keep it harder for EVs to dominate any market without any incentive or some other artificial way to push them down the throat of the average Joe.

  Reply With Quote
Reply  Post New Thread


Thread Tools




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.5.2
All content copyright EcoModder.com