Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead
1) The pure white powder snow phase of water has the highest reflective index ( albedo) as any natural surface. For any solar radiation falling on it, it reflects about 82.5% back to space, and absorbs 17.5%.
2) Global warming is such that, temperatures even at 18,600-feet elevation are warm enough to melt powder snow.
3) When the snow melts, and then re-freezes at night, it becomes an ice phase of water, with a reflective index of only 73%, absorbing 54.28% more energy.
This difference in heat absorption is equivalent to reducing Earth's orbital distance from the Sun to, 74,841,296-miles. 18.1-million miles closer to the Sun.
4) When all the ice melts, leaving exposed rock, the reflective index falls to around 62.5%, absorbing 37.5% of solar energy. The difference in absorbed solar radiation is equivalent to further reducing Earth's orbit to 63,504,954-miles, which places Earth 'inside' the orbit of Venus. 29,455,045-miles closer to the Sun.
This isn't a 'future' scenario. This is happening right now. This is what Andrew Glickson referred to as our greatest threat, as this is exactly what drove some of the greatest past mass-extinction events in Earth's geological record.
5) There's around 4300- billion tons of Methane stored in the permafrost and ocean floor clathrates.
6) Methane is a greenhouse gas which is 27-times more powerful than carbon-dioxide.
7) Releasing 4300-gigatons of methane is equivalent to releasing 116,100-gigatons of carbon dioxide.
8) 11,610,000,000,000-pound of carbon-dioxide.
9) 11.6-trillion pounds of carbon dioxide.
10) Earth will heat more and faster than ever in Earth's geologic record.
11) It can't be engineered for.
12) All the wealth on Earth wouldn't scratch the surface of the cost.
So, that's what's unfolding.
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Methane is gone in 12 years so it really isn't 27x worse than CO2 (which sticks around hundreds of years). And a hotter earth with more (liquid) water is going to be more humid resulting in more cloud cover (& storms/extreme weather). Clouds are essentially as reflective as snow, but they'll cover a greater percentage of the earth's surface.
A hotter, more humid earth will probably result in more tropical diseases. It'll also make some formerly arid land areas able to grow crops which, while deserts reflect better than forests, will capture more CO2.
Cliff notes: While may royally **** up the the earth's climate for a few thousand years, making it harder for (the poorest of) us to survive, life on earth will adapt and soldier on over the next ~2 billion years until the sun dies.