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Old 02-16-2023, 02:48 PM   #908 (permalink)
freebeard
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they are aware of 100-year solar storm events and their implications to modern society, and are actively working to improve monitoring and early warning.
They sound suspiciously 0bservant.

A 100-year window is myopic.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774–775 carbon-14 spike
Quote:
The 774–775 carbon-14 spike is an observed increase of 1.2% in the concentration of carbon-14 isotope in tree rings dated to 774 or 775, which is about 20 times as high as the normal background rate of variation. It was discovered during a study of Japanese cedar trees, with the year of occurrence determined through dendrochronology.[1] A surge in beryllium isotope 10
Be, detected in Antarctic ice cores, has also been associated with the 774–775 event.[2] It is known as the Miyake event or the Charlemagne event and it produced the largest and most rapid rise in carbon-14 ever recorded.[3][4]

The event appears to have been global, with the same carbon-14 signal found in tree rings from Germany, Russia, the United States, Finland and New Zealand.
[snip]

Frequency of similar events
The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes,[14] but it is not unique. A similar event occurred in 993 or 994, but it was only 60% as strong;[21] and another in c. 660 BCE.[22][23] Several other events of the same kind are also suspected to have occurred during the Holocene epoch.[14]

From these statistics, one may expect that such strong events occur once per tens of millennia, while weaker events may occur once per millennium or even century. The event of 774 did not cause catastrophic consequences for life on Earth,[24][15] but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems.
That's two orders of magintude (either arithmetic or logrithmic scaling?)
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