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Originally Posted by Ecky
I guess it depends on the area. The US has a ton of natural gas I'm sure it will continue burning for a long time to come, and a lot of corporate interest in oil. The US also has one of the harsher climates in the world. Yet, US automakers seem even more keen to jump on the EV bandwagon than foreign automakers (with the exception of Chinese). My best guess, EVs will take a large chunk of the market (where it makes sense), which will cause fuel to become more expensive as economies of scale deteriorate. Gas stations barely keep above water as it is.
China will likely rapidly move to EVs powered largely by hydro and dirty coal. This will probably still be a net win in terms of emissions.
I live in New Zealand now, and nearly all of the energy used by the country comes from hydro and geothermal - with a lot of room to scale up. There is also a tremendous amount of wind here. A larger percent of people live in cities here, and have shorter commutes. Plus, the country is rather small. I have friends who have driven across it in 2013 Leaf, without too much inconvenience, if that puts things in perspective. EVs are a no-brainer here, given the price of importing oil, and the cost of fuel when you don't have US taxpayer subsidies making it less expensive.
Japan and Korea, as examples, are very energy poor and would likely love to get away from oil. Together the two produce most of the vehicles used in most of the world.
I can't speak for Europe. I have no idea what's going to happen there - but most people in Europe have access to high quality mass transit anyway.
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There's no shortage of fossil fuel demand. A handful of EVs, transportation accounting for only 1/3rd of energy consumption, isn't going to disrupt demand, especially considering EVs are still 60% fossil fuel powered.
You'd think Japan would be the perfect place to own an EV, but they are surprisingly slow to adopt them. Islands are the perfect environment for EVs because there's never an opportunity for long trips, and therefore no range concerns.
The US is gaming subsidies. The environmental religion is a grift, and the rich will get richer.