Seems like electric is the end goal

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by Solarpowered

You're describing today's battery. That assumes technology never improves, which it does. Just gaining a better mastery over graphene alone, guarantees a much better battery than what we have now. And much cheaper. But it's usually pretty difficult to get people to see what's coming down the road; they much prefer to just focus on what's here right now.

No one is going to buy a car that doesn't exist. Aside from Aptera fan boi club.

[Ecky]

Just reiterating what resonates with me in this thread:

EVs are likely to eventually (effectively) fully replace ICEs. This is contingent upon likely but uncertain gradual improvement in technology, as well as supply being able to adjust to meet demand.

As for today's market, batteries have improved to the point that under certain use conditions, EVs offer considerable running cost and performance advantages. The upfront cost and market forces make new EVs unattainable for many, and many used EVs have severe compromises. EVs have also not reached every market sector.

Not long ago, I bought a (~35-40% efficient) ICE vehicle, because while cost of ownership is important to me, it isn't the single most important factor. I would have purchased a PHEV were there a good lightly used Roadster or convertible PHEV. Looking into my crystal ball, Mazda has just released a car with a 45-50% thermally efficient ICE paired to a hybrid system, that may well end up in their next version of the Roadster. I would strongly consider buying one once they're 3-5 years old.

[freebeard]

...batteries have improved to the point that ... EVs offer considerable running cost and performance advantages.

OTOH, the motors could be improved. Geometrically:

Hairpin technology
Hairpin technology is a winding technology for stators in electric motors and generators and is also used for traction applications in electric vehicles. In contrast to conventional winding technologies, the hairpin technology is based on solid, flat copper bars which are inserted into the stator stack.Wikipedia

https://www.rcgroups.com › forums › showthread.php?1326848-Designs-on-Axial-Flux-motors-curious-about-coil-types
Designs on Axial Flux motors, curious about coil types.
Serpentine Coil Construction - Part 1 (6 min 17 sec) which the uploader referred to as a serpentine coil. The key data I am looking for is: how to get a very low KV rating, low enough to get a direct drive on a full sized vehicle. planning on running either 72 or 144 volts, 72 at first, depending on funding, 144 at most.

And new materials:

https://news.northeastern.edu › 2022 › 10 › 17 › rare-earths-crisis
Researchers May Have Just Solved the Rare Earths Crisis
17 Oct 2022The problem is that tetrataenite isn't found in nature—at least, not on Earth. It's only found in meteorites, says Laura Lewis , a university distinguished professor of chemical engineering at Northeastern, who is part of a team that is attempting to make tetrataenite in a lab in an effort to uncover scalable solutions to the rare earths ...

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Ecky

EVs are likely to eventually (effectively) fully replace ICEs

I'd take the one-size-fits-all approach with a grain of salt.

As for today's market, batteries have improved to the point that under certain use conditions, EVs offer considerable running cost and performance advantages. The upfront cost and market forces make new EVs unattainable for many, and many used EVs have severe compromises. EVs have also not reached every market sector.

And with automakers trying to set higher benchmarks, as if they had to prove EVs would be "better" overall than a gasser, there are fewer efforts into making an EV catering to the average Joe. Even the Chinese ones such as the BYD Han I saw this Saturday while walking the dog is way too upscale for the average Joe to be OK with its price tag.

[Grant-53]

A BEV is best suited to urban areas in warm climates. There is no one size fits all solution no matter what the socialists think. Off road machines will continue with turbo diesel and different fuels. Methanol fuel cells can use waste products. Hydrogen with carbon dioxide can produce fuel. Batteries don't like cold weather so don't expect BEV snow machines. My question is where are we going to get so much electricity to replace all the natural gas?

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by Grant-53

My question is where are we going to get so much electricity to replace all the natural gas?

I guess it depends on the area. The US has a ton of natural gas I'm sure it will continue burning for a long time to come, and a lot of corporate interest in oil. The US also has one of the harsher climates in the world. Yet, US automakers seem even more keen to jump on the EV bandwagon than foreign automakers (with the exception of Chinese). My best guess, EVs will take a large chunk of the market (where it makes sense), which will cause fuel to become more expensive as economies of scale deteriorate. Gas stations barely keep above water as it is.

China will likely rapidly move to EVs powered largely by hydro and dirty coal. This will probably still be a net win in terms of emissions.

I live in New Zealand now, and nearly all of the energy used by the country comes from hydro and geothermal - with a lot of room to scale up. There is also a tremendous amount of wind here. A larger percent of people live in cities here, and have shorter commutes. Plus, the country is rather small. I have friends who have driven across it in 2013 Leaf, without too much inconvenience, if that puts things in perspective. EVs are a no-brainer here, given the price of importing oil, and the cost of fuel when you don't have US taxpayer subsidies making it less expensive.

Japan and Korea, as examples, are very energy poor and would likely love to get away from oil. Together the two produce most of the vehicles used in most of the world.

I can't speak for Europe. I have no idea what's going to happen there - but most people in Europe have access to high quality mass transit anyway.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Ecky

I guess it depends on the area. The US has a ton of natural gas I'm sure it will continue burning for a long time to come, and a lot of corporate interest in oil. The US also has one of the harsher climates in the world. Yet, US automakers seem even more keen to jump on the EV bandwagon than foreign automakers (with the exception of Chinese). My best guess, EVs will take a large chunk of the market (where it makes sense), which will cause fuel to become more expensive as economies of scale deteriorate. Gas stations barely keep above water as it is.

China will likely rapidly move to EVs powered largely by hydro and dirty coal. This will probably still be a net win in terms of emissions.

I live in New Zealand now, and nearly all of the energy used by the country comes from hydro and geothermal - with a lot of room to scale up. There is also a tremendous amount of wind here. A larger percent of people live in cities here, and have shorter commutes. Plus, the country is rather small. I have friends who have driven across it in 2013 Leaf, without too much inconvenience, if that puts things in perspective. EVs are a no-brainer here, given the price of importing oil, and the cost of fuel when you don't have US taxpayer subsidies making it less expensive.

Japan and Korea, as examples, are very energy poor and would likely love to get away from oil. Together the two produce most of the vehicles used in most of the world.

I can't speak for Europe. I have no idea what's going to happen there - but most people in Europe have access to high quality mass transit anyway.

There's no shortage of fossil fuel demand. A handful of EVs, transportation accounting for only 1/3rd of energy consumption, isn't going to disrupt demand, especially considering EVs are still 60% fossil fuel powered.

You'd think Japan would be the perfect place to own an EV, but they are surprisingly slow to adopt them. Islands are the perfect environment for EVs because there's never an opportunity for long trips, and therefore no range concerns.

The US is gaming subsidies. The environmental religion is a grift, and the rich will get richer.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by Grant-53

My question is where are we going to get so much electricity to replace all the natural gas?

The plan appears to be somewhere between "go on without it" and "only the power company is allowed to use it"

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Maybe internal combustion is not the problem, but the crank and rod?

www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Omega+1+ice+engine+design

It's the products of combustion.
If a cost-effective means can be effected, which captures and sequesters all methane and carbon dioxide, plus remove all the extant methane and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, back down to pre-industrial levels; then it would be less of an issue.
The fly in the ointment though, is the superior efficiency of the electric motor, compared to internal combustion.
There is a downward trending curve for any compelling arguments suggesting that in a capitalistic nation, anyone could justify the use of internal combustion for any longer than absolutely necessary, in the transition to electrified transport, or anything else which would benefit from electrification.

[freebeard]

Start with an acceptable exhaust stream? Water? That implies an O plus H2 reaction, either internal combustion or fuel cell. Hydrogen comes in colors now -- green and blue.

https://www.weforum.org › agenda › 2021 › 07 › clean-energy-green-hydrogen
Grey, blue, green - the many colours of hydrogen explained | World ...
27 Jul 2021Green hydrogen - also referred to as "clean hydrogen" - is produced by using clean energy from surplus renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, to split water into two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom through a process called electrolysis.

https://www.cnbc.com › 2022 › 01 › 06 › what-is-green-hydrogen-vs-blue-hydrogen-and-why-it-matters.html
What is green hydrogen vs. blue hydrogen and why it matters - CNBC
6 Jan 2022Green hydrogen could help us cut our carbon footprint, if it overcomes hurdles Blue hydrogen is hydrogen produced from natural gas with a process of steam methane reforming, where natural...

This capitalistic nation you speak of: when and where? The United States prior to the Whiskey Rebellion? Galt's Gulch? Neom?