Quote:
Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary
Yep, this seems like a problem to me and something we've discussed before on the forum.
On the other hand cars are becoming more and more disposible anyway. Even if they are gas or diesel, they still have a ton of electronics that when that stuff starts to go out it no longer becomes feasible to fix the vehicle, regardless of how good the engine is still in. Cars in general seem harder to fix.
Apparently the average car life in the USA is just over 11 years or about 13 to 17 years if we don't include ones that die prematurely.
Take my 2006 Toyota Prius with 215,000 miles for an example. Not only does it need an HV battery, but also an expensive catalytic converter and an engine block. We're talking over $6,000 just in parts if I get all new parts from Toyota, which to me is the only way to go with the battery and legally the only way I can replace the catalytic converter. I guess I could save a little with a used engine and throw in any $600 aftermarket battery that will problably die in two to three years just to sell the car, but I'm still getting to the point that it will cost more to fix the car than what it's worth.
Also take a 2017 Ford Escape with 100,000 miles that the transmission went out on for some friends that had litterally just bought it used. They were quoted $9,000 to have it repaired. Thankfully an extended warranty saved them, but if this car were another 10 years old, it would be trash now.
So if 99% of people are throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years then what will it matter if people keep throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years? What does it matter if it's a large EV battery, a non-honeable engine or a CVT transmission that costs thousands and thousands to replace?
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I hate to quote the whole post but responding to Isaac.
I imagine that prius will end up going to some guy who can fix it as the cost of hard parts isn't too high to fix that prius and its really just a lot of labor for people who are more than willing to fix it. Especially at 210k miles. I see it honestly all the time with old Toyotas. Down here a poorer guy would try a piston soak on that prius or re-ring it for very little money and just a lot of labor on his part, replace the wheel bearing, remove the catalytic converter and clean it ultrasonically with a good solvent, and recondition the battery here and there, or a lot of people really do love throwing new batteries in those priuses. They are really popular now as cheap cars like how the old 90s honda civics were.
I think my main point here is the *average* age of vehicle on the road is 12.3 years old now.
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/...-old-are-cars/
I'm not sure what the distribution for the average is but many many cars are affordable enough to repair that they are able to be kept on the road for many years after the average to keep the average high at 12.3 years. You start recycling cars at 12-15 years because the battery is $20k replacement cost and that average will go way down. Like we saw with covid you shrink the total share of cars on the road and they all become more much expensive since there are less cars. Just from haulting production on new cars to basically nill we saw used cars below $10,000 effectively double in price since everybody start shopping downwards just to get what they needed and it leaves the folks at the bottom much worse off (inflation has been around 50% but used cars it has been 100%).
I think if high cycle life batteries take off though instead of the current lithiums though we could be in much better shape.
I seriously doubt we will go full electric though. Like the obama era cafe regulations they were reversed, but they led to a lot of progress.
If we get a good mix of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs for households where it works, and diesel mixes we would be in a good spot.
At this point i almost cringe when people buy regular 4 cylinder camrys instead of the hybrid. But a lot of people don't want to own the car long enough to justify the extra cost of the hybrid option.
I think the quote for the total life cycle for passenger cars of a certain model year to be about 25 years before effectively all of them are off the road and recycled (2% remaining).They were using some of those quotes to try and guess how long it would take to fully electrifiy the american car market since people won't just throw out good cars, they will just conk out naturally over time. Which kind of makes sense. Try find a 90s Honda Civic now compared to 10 years ago.
I bet if we really step it up and it to gear the market could be HEV/BEV/EV in around 35 years.
It'll get figured out though we are still really in the early infancy of battery technology with people just now spending the time to develop it as said above. If we can get brand T and others to quit using construction adhesive on their massive battery packs and do a bit more modular packs that are rebuildable we could increase the repairability a lot!
Like how people repair Priuses or the OG Tesla Roadsters: