Seems like electric is the end goal

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by Grant-53

For several years I have volunteered at the Green Grand Prix. I did scoring again this year. The top production vehicle got 148 e-mpg at 46 mph. I also regularly read the SAE publications. No Tesla entries because of the Feb. recall. Toyota says their batteries are good for 4,400 recharges. The individual cells are fused to prevent thermal runaway. The major hurdles are in infrastructure both recycling lithium and a distributed power grid. For me to refit my home with all electric appliances and a heat pump would be $40,000. I could see a 3 cyl. turbo diesel hybrid working in rural areas. Batteries just don't like extreme temperatures.

This is a fair point.

In the pursuit of efficiency, it's almost inevitable that vehicles will need to become more tailored to their environments (or use cases), lest they become unobtainably expensive. A significant chunk of the world's population lives in areas of mild (or at least unvarying) weather. Another significant chunk lives in areas that experiences harsh winters and large seasonal swings. A vehicle optimized for both is optimized for neither, nevermind more expensive.

[freebeard]

https://i.imgur.com/wkxMysx.jpg

Check out the antenna.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Grant-53

I could see a 3 cyl. turbo diesel hybrid working in rural areas.

There were times when 3-cyl Diesels were fitted to trucks in my country, yet hybrids were quite a sci-fi deal back in the day.

[hayden55]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Yep, this seems like a problem to me and something we've discussed before on the forum.

On the other hand cars are becoming more and more disposible anyway. Even if they are gas or diesel, they still have a ton of electronics that when that stuff starts to go out it no longer becomes feasible to fix the vehicle, regardless of how good the engine is still in. Cars in general seem harder to fix.

Apparently the average car life in the USA is just over 11 years or about 13 to 17 years if we don't include ones that die prematurely.

Take my 2006 Toyota Prius with 215,000 miles for an example. Not only does it need an HV battery, but also an expensive catalytic converter and an engine block. We're talking over $6,000 just in parts if I get all new parts from Toyota, which to me is the only way to go with the battery and legally the only way I can replace the catalytic converter. I guess I could save a little with a used engine and throw in any $600 aftermarket battery that will problably die in two to three years just to sell the car, but I'm still getting to the point that it will cost more to fix the car than what it's worth.

Also take a 2017 Ford Escape with 100,000 miles that the transmission went out on for some friends that had litterally just bought it used. They were quoted $9,000 to have it repaired. Thankfully an extended warranty saved them, but if this car were another 10 years old, it would be trash now.

So if 99% of people are throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years then what will it matter if people keep throwing away their vehicles at around 15 years? What does it matter if it's a large EV battery, a non-honeable engine or a CVT transmission that costs thousands and thousands to replace?

I hate to quote the whole post but responding to Isaac.

I imagine that prius will end up going to some guy who can fix it as the cost of hard parts isn't too high to fix that prius and its really just a lot of labor for people who are more than willing to fix it. Especially at 210k miles. I see it honestly all the time with old Toyotas. Down here a poorer guy would try a piston soak on that prius or re-ring it for very little money and just a lot of labor on his part, replace the wheel bearing, remove the catalytic converter and clean it ultrasonically with a good solvent, and recondition the battery here and there, or a lot of people really do love throwing new batteries in those priuses. They are really popular now as cheap cars like how the old 90s honda civics were.

I think my main point here is the *average* age of vehicle on the road is 12.3 years old now.
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/...-old-are-cars/
I'm not sure what the distribution for the average is but many many cars are affordable enough to repair that they are able to be kept on the road for many years after the average to keep the average high at 12.3 years. You start recycling cars at 12-15 years because the battery is $20k replacement cost and that average will go way down. Like we saw with covid you shrink the total share of cars on the road and they all become more much expensive since there are less cars. Just from haulting production on new cars to basically nill we saw used cars below $10,000 effectively double in price since everybody start shopping downwards just to get what they needed and it leaves the folks at the bottom much worse off (inflation has been around 50% but used cars it has been 100%).
I think if high cycle life batteries take off though instead of the current lithiums though we could be in much better shape.
I seriously doubt we will go full electric though. Like the obama era cafe regulations they were reversed, but they led to a lot of progress.
If we get a good mix of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs for households where it works, and diesel mixes we would be in a good spot.
At this point i almost cringe when people buy regular 4 cylinder camrys instead of the hybrid. But a lot of people don't want to own the car long enough to justify the extra cost of the hybrid option.

I think the quote for the total life cycle for passenger cars of a certain model year to be about 25 years before effectively all of them are off the road and recycled (2% remaining).They were using some of those quotes to try and guess how long it would take to fully electrifiy the american car market since people won't just throw out good cars, they will just conk out naturally over time. Which kind of makes sense. Try find a 90s Honda Civic now compared to 10 years ago.
I bet if we really step it up and it to gear the market could be HEV/BEV/EV in around 35 years.
It'll get figured out though we are still really in the early infancy of battery technology with people just now spending the time to develop it as said above. If we can get brand T and others to quit using construction adhesive on their massive battery packs and do a bit more modular packs that are rebuildable we could increase the repairability a lot!
Like how people repair Priuses or the OG Tesla Roadsters:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI1O...b_channel=CNBC

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by hayden55

I hate to quote the whole post but responding to Isaac.

I imagine that prius will end up going to some guy who can fix it as the cost of hard parts isn't too high to fix that prius and its really just a lot of labor for people who are more than willing to fix it. Especially at 210k miles. I see it honestly all the time with old Toyotas. Down here a poorer guy would try a piston soak on that prius or re-ring it for very little money and just a lot of labor on his part, replace the wheel bearing, remove the catalytic converter and clean it ultrasonically with a good solvent, and recondition the battery here and there, or a lot of people really do love throwing new batteries in those priuses. They are really popular now as cheap cars like how the old 90s honda civics were.

I think my main point here is the *average* age of vehicle on the road is 12.3 years old now.
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/...-old-are-cars/
I'm not sure what the distribution for the average is but many many cars are affordable enough to repair that they are able to be kept on the road for many years after the average to keep the average high at 12.3 years. You start recycling cars at 12-15 years because the battery is $20k replacement cost and that average will go way down. Like we saw with covid you shrink the total share of cars on the road and they all become more much expensive since there are less cars. Just from haulting production on new cars to basically nill we saw used cars below $10,000 effectively double in price since everybody start shopping downwards just to get what they needed and it leaves the folks at the bottom much worse off (inflation has been around 50% but used cars it has been 100%).
I think if high cycle life batteries take off though instead of the current lithiums though we could be in much better shape.
I seriously doubt we will go full electric though. Like the obama era cafe regulations they were reversed, but they led to a lot of progress.
If we get a good mix of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs for households where it works, and diesel mixes we would be in a good spot.
At this point i almost cringe when people buy regular 4 cylinder camrys instead of the hybrid. But a lot of people don't want to own the car long enough to justify the extra cost of the hybrid option.

I think the quote for the total life cycle for passenger cars of a certain model year to be about 25 years before effectively all of them are off the road and recycled (2% remaining).They were using some of those quotes to try and guess how long it would take to fully electrifiy the american car market since people won't just throw out good cars, they will just conk out naturally over time. Which kind of makes sense. Try find a 90s Honda Civic now compared to 10 years ago.
I bet if we really step it up and it to gear the market could be HEV/BEV/EV in around 35 years.
It'll get figured out though we are still really in the early infancy of battery technology with people just now spending the time to develop it as said above. If we can get brand T and others to quit using construction adhesive on their massive battery packs and do a bit more modular packs that are rebuildable we could increase the repairability a lot!
Like how people repair Priuses or the OG Tesla Roadsters:

The engine block has galling in all the cylinders, chunks of metal missing from the walls and deep grooves. So you can try to baby the catlytic converter but it will likely fail again without another engine since the engine will continue to guzzle oil, piston soak or not. I guess I could put in a used engine.

[freebeard]

I think my main point here is the *average* age of vehicle on the road is 12.3 years old now.

Me in the 1990s



The Notchback was 30 years old, the Oval Window reaching end of life at 40 years.

Currently the 19971 Superbeetle is 52 years old and the XFi is 33.

This suggests that there must be cars that only last six months to a year to bring the average down.

[full disclaimer: My first car was 10 years old and cost $100]

[Xist]

Originally Posted by hayden55

The only issue I see with pure electric cars over HEVs is that the battery will need to be replaced in both. Buying a $2500 battery from Toyota to put in my prius when it goes out in probably 15 years /250k of use isn't bad. But it seems like the EV's get around the same life except an EV with tolerable range will be more like a 50kW battery. Which will be around $15,000 all with diy replacement considered. Considering how little monies you save in a brand new model 3 over a lowly prius, I forsee a lot less used cars being on the road in 20 years.

I recently saw someone saying "You may want everyone to drive an EV, but an EV battery is 6 times as big as a hybrid battery, so you can make 6 times as many hybrids, and there aren't enough batteries to go around."

I just wish that you could still drive hybrids once the battery is dead.

You may hate it and only get 10 MPG, but at least you don't need to replace the whole car.

[Xist]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Take my 2006 Toyota Prius with 215,000 miles for an example. Not only does it need an HV battery, but also an expensive catalytic converter and an engine block. We're talking over $6,000 just in parts if I get all new parts from Toyota, which to me is the only way to go with the battery and legally the only way I can replace the catalytic converter.

Aftermarket cats are legal, but they may only last the 2.5 years they are warrantied.

That was my experience with my Accord.

I didn't like cheaping out, but Google says the dealership with the lowest price is Honda Parts Cheap, and they want $1,245.94 for a car I would have sold to a stranger for $1,500.

Can you imagine?

Six times what my nephew paid me and I never would have needed to deal with it again!

It isn't legal to buy a used cat or to remove a working one, so when I see a Prius that needs one it would supposedly be illegal to buy a wrecked Prius and pull its CC, but whenever I see a junk Prius for sale the ad always says the catalytic converter is already gone.

Google Shopping only showed 4 dealerships.

I told it to only show units over $450 and it just showed fewer aftermarket ones, but 20 of them cost about as much as a Toyota one!

I wish there were a website that compared part prices from different dealerships!

I searched for the part number and only saw 3 dealerships--and a bunch of other random results.

Since it is illegal to remove a functioning catalytic converter, Consumer Reports, for example, couldn't buy 10 brands, have the emissions checked, and then I guess drive 10,000 miles, and see if they change at all.

Different sources say the average American drives 12-15k miles a year, so arguably they should drive 35,000 miles with each one because that is roughly what the average American would drive during the factory-mandated warranty, but there is no way that anyone would do all of that and it seemed like I was the only person who ever cared which one was the best.

Who wants to replace their cat every 30 months?!

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by Xist

Aftermarket cats are legal, but they may only last the 2.5 years they are warrantied.

In states like mine aftermarket cats are no longer legal with an asterisk.

The catalytic converter must meet California's requirements. For a Gen 2 Prius, there is only one catalytic converter being sold that meets those requirements, and that's the OEM cat.

For some vehicles there are aftermarket cats that have gone through everything California demands to prove they meet their requirements, but that's not every vehicle.

So, legally, I can't purchase an aftermarket or used catalytic converter. I can't legally go to another state, have an aftermarket cat installed, and then bring the car back. Legally I either put on a new OEM cat, or I move to a state that allows non-California-compliant cats or I take the engine out and do an EV conversion or I don't drive the car.

[freebeard]

Since it is illegal to remove a functioning catalytic converter, Consumer Reports, for example, couldn't buy 10 brands, have the emissions checked, and then I guess drive 10,000 miles, and see if they change at all.

Professional driver, closed track; middle finger to the DMV/DEQ.