Quote:
Originally Posted by darcane
I agree.
If you resort to Wright's Law to "prove" that EVs will dominate the market, you're delusional. It only applies to new technologies, and even those are hit and miss. Some components of EVs might apply, but an entire EV definitely doesn't. There is little learning curve left on how to make a chassis, suspension, brakes etc, and these components will not drop significantly in price.
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The kid doing the Wright's Law analysis made many mistakes in his assumptions, and among those was assuming the cost reduction applied to the entire EV, not to any particular component.
Then he assumed EV production doubles every year, which there's no evidence for.
Then he assumed a 23% reduction in cost every doubling, meaning every year.
I forget what the end analysis was, but it's like a Tesla would cost $7,000 in 4 years or something, so he said only a fool wouldn't buy Tesla stock.