Car prices are still insane.

[darcane]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Keep in mind that the upward creep started in 1913.


inflationdata.com/articles/2021/01/01/long-term-inflation-charts-updated/

2600 percent!

I'm also an optimist. The unionized manufacturers selling EVs at a loss will be superceded by Tesla (and possibly some also-ran like Aptera or Arcimoto).

edit:
Looking at the last five years inflation is similar to taking all the books older than 2008 off the high school library shelves.

Your chart is missing the last few years... if you added those you'd have a significant uptick at the end and a total of over 3000%.

So, yes, it's been on an upward kick for a while, but the last few years have a much more significant effect on the economy than inflation has had in decades.

I'd say this is nothing like your book ban example, since 1) there is a huge increase in inflation recently, and this is a significant change and 2) books are not a commodity, they all have unique topics and aren't interchangeable. Whereas 10% of inflation is the same whether it is this year, or 100 years ago.

[freebeard]

Respectfully:

Your chart is missing the last few years... if you added those you'd have a significant uptick at the end and a total of over 3000%.

That was simply the chart that fell out with the least effort. You are not disproving the point.

So, yes, it's been on an upward kick for a while, but the last few years have a much more significant effect on the economy than inflation has had in decades.

The wonder of compound interest.

I'd say this is nothing like your book ban example, since 1) there is a huge increase in inflation recently, and this is a significant change and 2) books are not a commodity, they all have unique topics and aren't interchangeable. Whereas 10% of inflation is the same whether it is this year, or 100 years ago.

Those who forget are condemned to repeat. Said someone, probably.

[freebeard]

Apparently. $100/kwh is the magic number:

Battery prices fall 80%; tipping point to the end of ICE cars is VERY close

He touched on the counter-inflationary aspect toward the end.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Apparently. $100/kwh is the magic number:

Battery prices fall 80%; tipping point to the end of ICE cars is VERY close

He touched on the counter-inflationary aspect toward the end.

Good ol' Sam Evens (Electric Viking) is extremely optimistic about EV's and a bit dogmatic if you ask me. He's one of those that goes around trumpetting it's "game over" for ICEV's, when the reality is that the majority of people still drive ICEV's and there's no real sign they're going to disapear anywhere near as quickly as EV enthusiasts belive.

[freebeard]

Powertrain will take a back seat ( ) to over-the-air upgrades and whole diecast cars.

My point was more about that the trajectory of $$/kwh is counter to purchasing power.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I'm also an optimist. The unionized manufacturers selling EVs at a loss will be superceded by Tesla (and possibly some also-ran like Aptera or Arcimoto).

Before 2023 I wouldn't have believed this, but it looks like it's becoming a reality. Tesla prices keep coming down and everyone else's keep going up. If there comes a time that those price points cross and I can get into a Tesla for less than a Chevy, Ford, Dodge, Toyota, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda or Honda, guess what I'm probably going to buy.

[Piotrsko]

Cant see the big three continuing making cars for any kind of profits lower than their standard ROI. Mary Barra gets paid too well to live like you and I.

Musk has a plan, but doesn't share his strategy to break into the big 3 ranks. He isn't also making as many vehicles per year, yet. But he does know prices affect sales.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Apparently. $100/kwh is the magic number:

Battery prices fall 80%; tipping point to the end of ICE cars is VERY close

He touched on the counter-inflationary aspect toward the end.

That guy doesn't say useful things, and if he does, it's by accident.

Over what period of time is he claiming 80% reduction in battery cost? The last 3 or so years, the costs have gone up due to inflation, supply chain issues, and scarcity of mined minerals.

$100/kWh is just a nice round number, not a tipping point of anything.

With $7,500-$10,000+ in taxpayer subsidies, EVs achieved 3% of vehicle sales. That means they have to "find $10,000" in added value just to meet 3% of sales, sans subsidy. Then they need to "find" additional value to further take market share.

What I mean by finding value, is anything that consumers perceive as value. The most direct way is to simply reduce the price, but it includes things like longer range batteries, more chargers, faster charging, quicker acceleration... anything that makes an EV more appealing than they currently are.

I believe EVs will find the $10k+ value eventually, but nowhere near as quickly as that Viking guy selling. There's another kid from New Zealand that reminds me of the Viking and takes it a step further by referencing Wright's Law, assuming EV sales double every year, and each doubling reducing overall vehicle price by 30%, then says we'd be insane to not buy Tesla stock based on the "facts".

[darcane]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I believe EVs will find the $10k+ value eventually, but nowhere near as quickly as that Viking guy selling. There's another kid from New Zealand that reminds me of the Viking and takes it a step further by referencing Wright's Law, assuming EV sales double every year, and each doubling reducing overall vehicle price by 30%, then says we'd be insane to not buy Tesla stock based on the "facts".

I agree.

If you resort to Wright's Law to "prove" that EVs will dominate the market, you're delusional. It only applies to new technologies, and even those are hit and miss. Some components of EVs might apply, but an entire EV definitely doesn't. There is little learning curve left on how to make a chassis, suspension, brakes etc, and these components will not drop significantly in price.

"Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!" - ICEV

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by darcane

I agree.

If you resort to Wright's Law to "prove" that EVs will dominate the market, you're delusional. It only applies to new technologies, and even those are hit and miss. Some components of EVs might apply, but an entire EV definitely doesn't. There is little learning curve left on how to make a chassis, suspension, brakes etc, and these components will not drop significantly in price.

The kid doing the Wright's Law analysis made many mistakes in his assumptions, and among those was assuming the cost reduction applied to the entire EV, not to any particular component.

Then he assumed EV production doubles every year, which there's no evidence for.

Then he assumed a 23% reduction in cost every doubling, meaning every year.

I forget what the end analysis was, but it's like a Tesla would cost $7,000 in 4 years or something, so he said only a fool wouldn't buy Tesla stock.