[freebeard]

phys.org/news: Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough

Tipping points occur when lots of small changes in climate build up to create a sudden, large change. Passing these thresholds leads to accelerated warming and extreme weather events.

For example, in years to come, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is at risk of collapsing. The AMOC is an ocean current transport system that brings warm water to the North Atlantic and helps to regulate temperatures in Europe and North America. If it collapses, the regional and global climate may become more erratic.

In July 2023, a study suggested the AMOC could collapse any time between 2025 and 2095. Another recent study, from October 2023, indicates that we are in dangerous proximity of the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, yet with some hope of avoiding it if proper action is taken.

....more erratic... which is to say away from Anthropogenic Climate Meddling.

The research critically investigated 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics winner Klaus Hasselmann's stochastic modeling approach, which revolutionized climate change analysis. The new study refined Hasselmann's techniques using recent tools developed within the mathematical and physical scientific literature.

The scientists noted how their methodology allows to better understand the nearing of the collapse of the AMOC. Observations show the AMOC is weakening.