Quote:
Originally Posted by Piotrsko
Barra is dealing with the no new fueled California mandate for 2035, whether or not it gets implemented. Others might be willing to just walk away from that market because they don't sell enough to justify the change
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Yes, GM is looking at the CARB ZEV mandate that steadily increases the required number of ZEVs until it hits 100% in 2035. This is formally called Advanced Clean Cars II.
However:
1. That is a ZEV mandate
NOT an battery electric mandate. PHEVs with an electric range over 50 miles are ZEVs. Ram's 2025 Ramcharger serial hybrid seems specifically targeted at CARB's requirements.
2. CARB is WAY bigger than California. 14 states currently use CARB emission standards and 35% of new vehicles sales are in those states. 4 more states will adopt CARB regulations between now and 2026 (Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virgina). That will take CARB market share of new cars sales to 40%. (Those 4 states decided to adopt CARB emission standards after Trump decided to roll back CAFE standards). That is for emissions.
3. 13 states have formally adopted Advanced Clean Cars II to have 100% ZEV sales by 2035.
No automaker is going to abandon 30 - 40% of the US new car market but some might decided to just buy credits or pay the $5,000 fine for every ZEV they miss the target.
More on Advanced Clean Cars II here:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/prog...-clean-cars-ii
The above also doesn't take into account ZEV credits. Automakers are sitting on a pile of credits earned by hitting targets early and from the old ZEV program. That means the actually percentage of ZEV sales per year will be lower and adoption of ZEVs slower than the headline numbers.
Different automakers are in different places with credits. People look at Toyota's lack of EV sales and make assumptions. The reality is they have a huge number of ZEV credits and simply do not have to sell EVs so they don't. They will likely wait until later in the decade when prices for EV tech comes down to start selling EVs in any volume. Until then they can easily hit CAFE with hybrids and ZEV with credits.
ZEV Credits:
