You are exactly right.
And its not only the cooler temperature that reduces efficiency, it takes more of a hit. When below a certain temperature, the car's computer often runs in warmup mode. Which defaults to a richer fuel mixture, and the torque converter does not lock up on an automatic transmission.
I am a mechanical engineer too, and some of my coworkers who have more seniority still dont know jack about cars. Its a different field in a lot of ways.
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Winter daily driver, parked most days right now

Summer daily driver
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