You need to check out some of the AC websites. Many have programs or charts to help
you size your system. My guess is about 12,000 BTU..
4 years to pay back? Right now, my oil is about $2 a gallon. When and if it goes up again,
will it stop at $4 a gallon? Or $5 ?? No one knows the payback on these things..
(Solar panels, hybrid cars etc)..
Edit:
Here's a URL with some info about BTUs needed for sq foot.
http://www.ductlesshvacsupply.com/btu-sizing.html