Clean Disruption

[redpoint5]

Just watched this interesting video by Tony Seba. I don't know about his date predictions, but his S-curve predictions of adoption of technology seems reasonable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

[sendler]

He makes good points in all of his disruption videos with a basis from historical technology disruptions. Transportation and energy is going to change dramatically when you can call for a self driving car to come get you any time you need a ride. Less money for car dealers or insurance companies and banks. Sweeping trickle down effects.

[JockoT]

An excellent video. And he is not the only clever man who is predicting the same.
This one is equally predictive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BWJcpesr6A&t=959s

[wdb]

Lots of talk. Eventually one of them will be right. It's like monkeys and typewriters.

[redpoint5]

One point that stuck with me is that nearly everyone attempts to forecast the future by carrying out current trends into the future with a linear graph. For example, here is a natural gas consumption graph from EIA which shows a steady increase in consumption through 2040.



As Tony pointed out, successful technology is adopted on an S-curve, which makes prediction especially tricky since there is a long period of slow adoption followed by very rapid adoption.

Any rate of increase or decrease is ultimately unsustainable. I wonder how much lower the cost of PV and battery production can go before reaching the limits? Then again, if the future involves robots doing the vast majority of all work, then the cost of most goods should approach $0.

[sendler]

The predicted decline in gas used for electrical production is a few years too early on that graph. We are closing down gigantic (compared to annual output of solar farms) nuclear generators right and left and replacing them with gas. And new coal.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by sendler

Transportation and energy is going to change dramatically when you can call for a self driving car to come get you any time you need a ride.

Why? Is a self-driving car fundamentally different than a taxi? If you're an urbanite, you have access to taxis and public transport already. If you're a non-urbanite, it's going to take a while for that self-driving car to arrive, and you may prefer not to waste that much time - not to mention that there are lots of places where calling is not an available option :-)

[JockoT]

The most expensive part of running a taxi, for a large firm, is paying the driver's wages. If you don't have a driver you can half your costs, which allows you to drop your fair. That in turn makes your service much more attractive.
Public transport runs well below capacity for most of the time (I was a bus driver for Stagecoach). The fares collected only go a little towards the cost of providing a service. If it wasn't for government, and local government subsidies, most services would be withdrawn.

[gone-ot]

Originally Posted by wdb

Lots of talk. Eventually one of them will be right. It's like monkeys and typewriters.

...and there's no ribbon in the typewriters.

Wait, who authored those atrocious "Planet of the Apes" movies?

[sendler]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Why? Is a self-driving car fundamentally different than a taxi?

Autonomous ride sharing and car hailing will be much cheaper than taxis or car ownership. Cars that are on the road will be in more constant use. by a factor of 10 at least. That means there will be less cars being made, sold, and parked. Huge disruption. Just around the corner. Get ready or get left behind. The ride sharing will be much more efficient than a bus since it more or less goes directly to your destination in a six passenger electric vehicle. Like a custom route which is constantly evolving. With a couple stops to let a person off or another person on. All coordinated from everyone's smart phone.