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Xist 07-31-2015 04:03 AM

Electric car tipping point
 
Geoff Ralson says there will come a point when electric cars become popular enough that gas stations start to close down, and then more and more people will decide to go electric, as there are fewer and fewer gas stations.

The Electric Car - Geoff's Blog

user removed 07-31-2015 06:05 AM

They took the pumps out of the 7-11 at the end of the neighborhood .3 mile from my house.

Remember the predictions about battery tech following CPU processor tech, "double the capacity in just 18 months"

What they forgot is the cost and the fact it just is not happening, or we would have no range anxiety with 500 mile battery packs that weighed 100 pounds.

regards
mech

Daox 07-31-2015 08:29 AM

It'll happen, just not that fast. Its already become WAY cheaper than it used to be.

Fat Charlie 07-31-2015 08:53 AM

There's a big difference between micro and macro issues with gas stations.

Any individual gas station has a bunch of headaches dealing with inventory, taxes, Big Oil and Big Environment- and then God forbid you go up a nickel a gallon after a hurricane. They don't even make money on the gas, it's just a draw to get people in so they can sell coffee, beer and potato chips.

But with all the headaches involved, having gas for sale out front is generally worth it- if one store in town drops out, the other guys in town will clean up until someone else decides to cough up for some pumps and join the fray.

pgfpro 07-31-2015 10:50 AM

When I got my driver license in 1977 there wasn't very many gas stations around. I think its probably gone up 90% since then? People did just fine then and didn't have a OMG I might run out of gas because I can't find a gas station moment.lol So I think it will be a while before we see this.

Also they are saying the cost of electricity in my area is going to go up substantially because of the drought we been having for the last 5 years. We get all or most of our electricity from hydroelectric. This year is really bad, all our rivers and streams are extremely low.:eek: Plus in the NW this year were consuming a ton of electricity for AC. Its a record hot Summer.

cRiPpLe_rOoStEr 07-31-2015 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Charlie (Post 488538)
They don't even make money on the gas, it's just a draw to get people in so they can sell coffee, beer and potato chips.

Don't forget the cigarettes. And they do make a lot of money in the "convenience" items, which are often more than double the price at a supermarket.

darcane 07-31-2015 12:40 PM

Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:
  • It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
  • It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
  • It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.
  • It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
  • It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
  • It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
  • It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgfpro (Post 488542)
When I got my driver license in 1977 there wasn't very many gas stations around. I think its probably gone up 90% since then? People did just fine then and didn't have a OMG I might run out of gas because I can't find a gas station moment.lol So I think it will be a while before we see this.

I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV. :)


Quote:

Originally Posted by pgfpro (Post 488542)
Also they are saying the cost of electricity in my area is going to go up substantially because of the drought we been having for the last 5 years. We get all or most of our electricity from hydroelectric. This year is really bad, all our rivers and streams are extremely low.:eek: Plus in the NW this year were consuming a ton of electricity for AC. Its a record hot Summer.


I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply

jamesqf 07-31-2015 12:54 PM

[QUOTE=darcane;488557]
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.

Now there are a couple of reasons why I won't be buying a Tesla (or likely any new car), unless someone develops a hack to remove that crap. I don't WANT a $%$@! user interface in my car, nor a navigation system, nor an internet connection.

Quote:

It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
Including the updates provided by industrious hackers :-) http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthrea...ems-32418.html

darcane 07-31-2015 01:23 PM

[QUOTE=jamesqf;488560]
Quote:

Originally Posted by darcane (Post 488557)
  • It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
  • It is connected to the Internet.

Now there are a couple of reasons why I won't be buying a Tesla (or likely any new car), unless someone develops a hack to remove that crap. I don't WANT a $%$@! user interface in my car, nor a navigation system, nor an internet connection.



Including the updates provided by industrious hackers :-) http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthrea...ems-32418.html

Ditto.

The "User interface" for a car is the steering wheel, pedals (3 of them), and shift lever.

Xist 07-31-2015 02:16 PM

I saw Internet and I wondered who was convinced they needed that. Some prefer streaming music to listening to the radio. Okay... At some point, I will finally reinstall Dad's Sirius from the Focus he sold me three years ago. I liked it, it just seems like I always have more important car projects. My friend who was stopped for DUI just because she is a terrible driver never puts down her phone. She claims that she is not messaging, she is doing music.

She is not using an app to play an instrument, so there is no reason to actively interact with the music. Honestly, as long as I have songs, I leave it alone. I just do not like commercials, but if that requires too much attention, I just turn it off.

Well, which is progressing faster, gas\hybrid or battery technology?


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