Electric cars depreciation shocker

[jjackstone]

Originally Posted by EVmetro

Almost any car, gas or electric goes down to 10% of its original value in ten years. Just move the decimal over one place from the original sticker price, and that is what it will likely be worth in ten years. This is a big problem for manufactured EVs, since the cost to replace the battery pack that will be ready to changed after a decade will exceed the value of the car, rendering it totaled. The EV components are worth very little, since most of them are proprietary instead of being universal, so they only fit certain year, make, and models.

Interesting thoughts, but I'm going to play devil's advocate here.
I'm won't be talking about buying a new manufactured EV, but about buying that manufactured EV 10 years down the road with the battery going bad. So at 10% of the original cost,the purchase might cost as much as $3500 for the used vehicle. Let's say that ten years from now the battery can be replaced for 1/3 of the cost that it now costs. This is using high estimate according to all the battery gurus out there that keep telling us that that costs should be a tenth of the current costs within a few years. And it assumes the buyer does all his own work as you do. So i'm going estimate another $3000 for a new battery pack. Now I don't know the motor life expectation in EV's , but if they are well built AC motors I would expect them to last at least thirty years with no real issues. I would think the controllers would die first. So now we have $6500 into a ten year old car.

Originally Posted by EVmetro

This is the argument for owning an EV conversion. An EV conversion is typically done to a car that has already depreciated, but the components tend to be assets with value not related to the car, since they can interchange easily with other conversions. Kinda like buying an expensive aftermarket stereo. If you wreck an inexpensive car with a nice aftermarket stereo, you can remove the amps, speakers, and deck, and install them into your next vehicle or liquidate them. In the case of a converted EV, the value of the motor, controller, charger, bms, cables, instrumentation, and such will probably far exceed the value of the chassis, so they are assets that have a separate value from the chassis. At the end of a decade, those assets won't be worth as much as new ones, but they will be worth far more than a factory EV that has been rendered a total.

While it would be unlikely that one would want to move all the electronics to another vehicle that doesn't make it impossible. Look what has just been purchased. An entire motor with its controller system for say $3500. A few welds and body mods and you have a new EV conversion with electronics parts that were made to work together. I'm also guessing that the American need to modify all things automotive won't stop just because motors are now electric. Install a more powerful controller, better regen system, faster charge unit or whatever and you make it your own. One problem I can see arising there is the auto companies might scream that you are violating the digital millenium act by messing with factory installed software.

Originally Posted by EVmetro

I like to think of an EV conversion chassis as a platform for assets, kinda like a desk is a platform for a computer and printer. The value of the desk can be trivial compared to the equipment that you put onto it. I look at factory EVs like I would look at a desk with a computer and printer permanently attached to it. It works great when it is new, but it will be worthless in a decade.

Or one could look at a factory EV as a computer. Runs a little slow; add a better motor. Not enough range. Install a bigger battery. Not really worthless, just another toy to tinker with.

Now with all that said, don't get me wrong. I love the idea of using old gas vehicles for EV conversions. It keeps them out of the junkyards for a few more years and still cuts down on amount of pollution spewed into the air. Oh, but I gave up cars for bicycles so my only emissions are of the occasional gaseous anomolies known as methane release. I also live in Sacramento. If you don't mind I'd like to see your conversions sometime in person. I've read your builds and they look great. You can PM me if you'd like.
JJ

[EVmetro]

Originally Posted by jjackstone

I'm won't be talking about buying a new manufactured EV, but about buying that manufactured EV 10 years down the road with the battery going bad. So at 10% of the original cost,the purchase might cost as much as $3500 for the used vehicle. Let's say that ten years from now the battery can be replaced for 1/3 of the cost that it now costs. This is using high estimate according to all the battery gurus out there that keep telling us that that costs should be a tenth of the current costs within a few years. And it assumes the buyer does all his own work as you do. So i'm going estimate another $3000 for a new battery pack. Now I don't know the motor life expectation in EV's , but if they are well built AC motors I would expect them to last at least thirty years with no real issues. I would think the controllers would die first. So now we have $6500 into a ten year old car.

Interesting point, but this is another example of why a conversion that uses universal components makes more sense. After that decade, when you go to replace the pack, you would be dealing with a lot of proprietary stuff that you may not have the tooling or software for. It would be challenging to upgrade an outdated component with something that makes more sense, and you might be limited to only replacing the battery. One might very well be able to simply replace the battery, assuming that a comparable one was available, but it may not be up to speed with what EVs are using in 10 years. The battery is only one of many systems on an EV, so we might want to look at what happens if a DC DC converter, or inverter, or something fails. On a conversion, it is not a big problem to update a BMS, or update to a more efficient or powerful controller, since we are talking about universal components. You could replace a pack on a 10 year old conversion with the latest technology, and maybe update the charger to something a little faster, without having to figure out how to integrate it with proprietary software. You could then take the older charger and hand it down to one of your kids cars.