The Future of the Automobile Lecture
 

This YouTube lecture about the future of the automobile will either excite or scare you. What ever you do do NOT buy any new cars until this all plays out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k

What do you think?

Doug in Oakland, CA

If you're an automotive enthusiast... it isn't all gloom and doom.

When the horse was phased out, we didn't suddenly euthanize all the horses. You could still have them shod, if you needed to, you could still own them. It just became impractical to buy new horses to go to work.

Our generation will still be able to hold onto and maintain gasoline-powered vehicles for maybe a decade or two after the switch... but we will be forced to not use them in certain areas, like city centers, or business districts. Meaning those of us who will keep them will only utilize them as weekend toys.

-

That's *if* electrics reach the point where the range anxiety issue is either addressed or made moot by better charging infrastructure. I'm not holding my breath for that. But I can certainly spare one for cleaner city-center air.

And unlike some petrolheads, I have absolutely no problem with the sound of an EV. Speed is speed, whatever is driving the wheels.

---

Still going through the video, but some flags:

1. Tesla's infinite mileage warranty... not a viable model, especially as the oldest Tesla Model S's are starting to experience problems.

2. Regarding the price-performance curve: A Porsche 911 is not necessarily expensive due to the performance. You're paying for intangibles with that money. "Status". "Luxury". It would be better to compare the Tesla price/power equation to other American "performance" cars.

3. Wondering how quickly battery costs CAN go down, especially if low gas prices depress EV sales. I hope the low cost of oil will encourage governments to spend on EVs while the cost of transport of parts and material is cheap.

His predictions and comparisons are too optimistic for EV, autonomy, and solar. For instance, he says EVs are 5x more efficient than gasoline vehicles, stating that an ICE is 20% efficient and assuming the EV is 100%. He also says that solar will provide 100% of energy demand by 2030, which is impossible. Airplanes will never run on solar, and energy production will always need a supplement for when the sun isn't shining.

We can't assume a Moore's law of increasing performance and reduced production costs because there are physical limitations. Chemistry only allows for so much energy density to be reached. In the computer chip industry, we are quickly nearing the end of Moore's law and the exponential shrink of the transistor. Intel missed a recent release date for their processor because shrinking the transistor size was more difficult than they anticipated.

The law of diminishing returns means that each improvement in performance, cost reduction, or efficiency becomes more difficult.

All that said, I agree that the technologies he talks about will trend towards his predictions, although at a slower rate.

The first example is the history of New York City, not the USA. Took a lot longer out in the boonies. Will add comments shortly.

Disruptive? Why not Rapid Evolution. Saw a news feature about a gal riding her horse to work, but I don't mind missing the poop.

Best IC engine is 56% efficient. Best EV is no more than 85% BEFORE IT ROTATES A WHEEL ONE REVOLUTION. NO EV is 280% efficient.

We are no where near as good as we can built IC engined cars.
Average efficiency could be doubled in a decade.

$5 in fuel gets me close to 170 miles. 16 times that far on $80, coast to coast?

6:47 I'll take a break BBL.
It gets booring when all the "facts" aren't facts at all.

No mention of the depreciation. I could live well off only the depreciation of a single Tesla.

Cheap maintenance, Christ, toss my maintenance into the depreciation black hole

7:52 All your 10x are lies that will become obvious. No maintenance? shocks, tires, batteries. Buy a pack for your Tesla when it sits long enough to be a brick, oops no warranty for abuse.

Now I have heard it all. Your $100,000 electric car has more power than any gas engine model, AND THE MOTOR NEVER WEARS OUT.

It's exactly the same sales tactic buyers are subjected to as stupidium.

10:42. Get your facts straight or it's propaganda.

I DON'T WANT MORE POWER. YOU JUST TRY TO CONVINCE ME THAT IS WHAT I WANT, but when you tell me it costs $100k I want neither YOUR solution OR a Porsche Carrera. I'll take my Mirage and $87,000 in the bank, thank you,which is what I have. MY 87k is not blowing away at 2k a month depreciation.

Extreme Example Rationalization.

11:25

regards
mech

I think that I am grumpy enough without watching the video! :)

EUREKA!!! I have found an honest man. :)

Ok. Just for THAT, you get to stand at the back of the line for EVs. :)

Better hold his spot, he will be out driving his Mirage! :)

But why on earth would you want to drive in city centers/business districts, if there was any practical alternative?

There are plenty of people whose lifestyle does not take them into city centers &c on a regular basis, certainly not every workday. With the spread of reasonably fast internet into rural areas, more people will be able to avoid commuting.

I'd go even further: the quiet is yet another reason to drive an EV.

I see all this push for EVs as another attempt to soften the average white Joe. I'd rather ride a gasser scooter before I ever lurk to buy an EV.

Thanks for that, ChewChewTrain.

Xist -- I thought the (non-car-owning) speaker was entertaining. Especially when he tries to imitate the sound of a gas car running up through the gears. :thumbup:

After a lifetime of buzzing around in VW Beetles, I'm ready for this. I spent a large part of it in the computer world, where people get antsy because the disruption doesn't happen fast enough.

I like the idea of half the parking lots turning into [hemp] gardens. The street past my place is full of jacked-up pickups and blacked out BMW M3s. If it gets quieter I could hear the train-yard better. Hey, maybe Matt Groening will pay to bring the Hyperloop to Springfield.

Auto 'enthusiasts' will discover that the Tesla drivetrain is the small-block Chevy of the 21st Century. Front-, rear- or all-wheel drive with enough beans for anything. Ecomodders will hang a Tesla 10Kw charger on the garage wall to fast charge their tricycle.

I buy into what he is saying....just not as fast and as much.

And I can see a time when they are dropping electric motors into 'classics' and kit cars.

Tony Seba synopsis on future technology:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmnSFdk5ISg

Tony Seba left out one other important source of energy: Pole Dancers

For the benefit of all mankind, I recommend we find a way to tap that source of energy.

.

I know how to "tap" that source of energy... ;)


:)

>

I thought I'd toss that "slow ball" to see who thinks like ME! Shame on you, Redneck. But I'm NOT surprised. ;)

Mcrews, will people be twice as angry putting an electric drivetrain into a Firebird as Prius guts?

Gimme an I! Gimme an N! Gimme S E C U R I T Y! What's that spell? Yay, insecurity :-)

Every time I drive into the metropolis for a meeting or motoring event, I ask myself the same thing. Even paying a ridiculous Uber surcharge makes more sense than killing yourself sitting in two hour gridlock just to get across town.

When I'm not making maximal use of a vehicle (three to four occupants), I usually take a bus or walk. Even bought a kick-scooter to extend my walking range off-bus, but am wondering if a folding bike would do even better.

I think this is the elephant in the "disruptive technology" room that the speaker is missing. Telecommuting is a potentially much bigger threat to motoring than EVs... because not everyone can afford a Tesla, but almost everyone can afford internet. Much of my additional income over the past several years comes from online work. To the point where actual physical office work feels redundant. Give us faster internet so we can successfully teleconference, and I'd never have to show my face at my desk.

+1 :D

EV drivers are not the type to blast bad music, are they? :D

It's not about insecurity, it's about the political correctness going wild nowadays. At least for me it seems like the perception of private cars as a sign of personal success (or eventually misfortune), and car culture as somewhat of a manhood deal, leads to some pressure to its extinction.

No matter if one drives a Peterbilt or a Prius, it's not a crime to be a man. Yet...

One of my friends used to randomly talk to me throughout the week. Many times she would call me while waiting for food, and then claim that she almost never ate out.

Waiting at the drive-through is boring!

Does that sound scripted to anyone?

What I thought was weird was she always acted like she was the mature one that made good decisions.

I love my car, but she needs plenty of work. As far as I know, I still have a periodic CEL. Between that and the rattling at acceleration, I need to check my exhaust again. Perhaps a heat shield is loose. Maybe I have an exhaust leak. If not, then I will need to live with it, because the next option is a bad computer, and I am not spending $1000 on my car to fix an annoyance! :)

My driver's window does not go all of the way up and I am missing the trim pieces on the inside of both mirrors. I am not sure what other mechanical issues there are. Eventually, I want to paint her white. I think she is a beautiful car, but I have a bent fender, scratches on the passenger door, and the paint is crazed. Also, black is horrible in Arizona! Painting an old car is definitely smarter than replacing the computer! :)

This is my friend's car:
http://i.imgur.com/WG9MGsg.jpg

It is ten years older than mine and was probably in worse shape when she bought it, but I doubt that she had a trustworthy mechanic inspect it. To the best of my knowledge, she only fixes her car when it breaks down, and she rear-ended someone.

Having an old car is not necessarily bad, but when you spend your money on shoes, clothes, and cell phones, while driving your car into the ground and other vehicles, I think it shows horrible priorities.

People do consider cars to be a status symbol. If you have a new car, it appears that you can afford it. If you drive a wreck, it appears that you cannot afford better.

That sounds like she is telling you she is not available to have a romantic relationship, or even a flirtatious one with you, and that you may have shown some amount of interest in her, but got into the friend-zone.

I drive a newer wreck. What am I projecting?

If I had millions in the bank, I'd probably own the same vehicles I have now. Perhaps I'd buy a slightly newer truck; one with a healthy transmission, working speedometer, cruise control, AC, and straight front-end.

I don't think telecommuting is a threat to motoring in general, just to commuting. It's been years since I've driven anywhere for work, but I still drive to go hike/bike/ski/horse trailheads, visit friends, trips to grocery & hardware stores, haul hay & firewood...

No, because if it were simply about owning a car, then a silent Tesla or other EV would be just as good (or even better, given the cost & performance) than an oversized something with a big V8 and inadequate mufflers, probably belching black smoke into the air. ("Rolling coal") It's IMHO just insecurity that makes these guys (and they are mostly guys) think that a) they neet to prove their "manhood" to a world that mostly doesn't care; and b) the best way to do this is to inflict their noise & stink on the rest of us.

http://i.imgur.com/ihF13ie.jpg
http://imgur.com/gallery/ihF13ie

She's hedging her bets. Keeping extra men in the bank. :D

Then there are women who like having guy friends without the (overt) pressures of courtship and sex. I've known quite a few women over the years like that.

Driving per se isn't going to go away. Geography conspires against any move to remove the automobile completely. But the urban lifestyle must, by needs, be anti-auto... it's the only way for the urban model to survive into the next few decades.

Those of us who live outside it may continue, though, to enjoy long walks on the beach and long drives through the countryside.

The real winner here is my girlfriend. She has been hearing me complain about my annoying friend for three months.

Gallifrey falls (no more)!

Yes, yes, I'd wager you are right. That's why I'm always advocating for not having female friends (if you're a straight guy). I even tell ex girlfriends that I'll never talk to them again when i break up; not to be mean, but just to make it easier on the both of us to move on. My wife really appreciates that I have no loose ends on past relationships.

I prefer to get my drama fix from Judge Judy, rather than life.

Doesn't need to be a landyacht, something like a Lotus Seven replica or a Baja Bug would already suffice for weekend racing. Electrics feel more like an appliance-car better suited to daily commuting.


It's not about a need to prove manhood for anybody else to see, it's just a matter of personal preferences.

I prefer to prove my manhood! :D

...until they win. With the current state of batteries, that's in drag racing. See the White Zombie. Or Tesla S. Long range races will come later.

Or pleasure driving, just as I said. But what's the market share of Lotus replicas (or even new Lotuses), Miatas, and other small, fun cars? Versus the oversized, over-engined, noise and stink producing things that some people think proves their manhood?

Hate to tell you this, but if you need to prove it, you ain't got it :-)

Personal preferences are culturally-informed.

I like oatmeal, and have it every morning--not because oatmeal is inherently better than other breakfast foods, but because I grew up in a family that ate oatmeal every morning, just as my father grew up in a family that ate oatmeal every morning. Had I grown up in a family that ate Lucky Charms for breakfast instead, I would probably prefer that.

I have been waiting for the telecommuting revolution for almost as long as I have been waiting for a viable electric car. Telecommuting is difficult to supervise. Many companies and institutions dabble in it then abandon it due to abuses, real or perceived. Bums-in-seats is going to dominate for a long, long time.

If the seats are in autonomous vehicles under the benign supervision of ParentCorp, then everyone can be a traveling salesman.

Won't that be fun?

I sometimes work on the road, as it is. Though it's awful hard to touch-type on my laptop while also driving, eating and Facebook-ing on a smartphone.

Telecommuter here. Very large employer. They won't be abandoning it. If managers can't deal with it they don't last long. I've waited a long time for it, true; since about 1995. I've been doing it off/on for about 5 years. I still go to the office at least once a week because there really is nothing like face time with coworkers + whiteboard to churn through tough problems.

Getting back to the future of the automobile. I'd like:

• autonomous mode on freeways
• affordable EV with sufficient range
• in-car foot massager

In that order. I suspect I'll be waiting an equal number of years as I did for my telecommuting dream.

And there goes the so-called Cultural Marxism, which I perceive as a threat in other aspects. The "environmentalism" is used just as a smokescreen among other matters such as religion, family and other traditional values that sustained our Western civilization.


As you said, you would probably prefer Lucky Charms instead of oatmeal if you were exposed to it earlier. We could relate it to the brainwashing that kids are exposed to at school, but it's another matter.


Anyway, would I be open-minded to at least try an electric car? Yes. Would I feel more inclined toward an EV compared to an ICE-powered vehicle with a similar performance? Then I don't know for sure, but still believe I wouldn't.