how much longer for the ICE now Americia's best selling Vehicle has gone electric?
 

I'm sure this has been discussed, but looking at this after Americias best selling vehicle turns 100% electric. Just my thoughts. If Ford can produce all the F-150 electrics to meet to demand, this a game changer. But, has I said elewhere, I think we will see a very limited supply.

But here is my point. there are 276 million cars in the USA

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/

And we can make and sell about 18 million a year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1951/

276 million divided by 18 million = 15.3 years, just to make and sell enough EVs to replace the ICE.

I think we are 7-8 years away from the point where Evs out number the sales of ICE.

This might be to simplitic, but I think we have at least 15 more years of ICE being the majority of vehicles on the road.

Also, there are remote areas where EVs will never replace ICE anytime soon. In areas where there is no GRID and not much sun, think Alaska, parts of Canada.

What's you best guess on when ICE will be 50% replaced?

The average age of a car in the US was 11,9 years in 2020.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...projected-age/
The age has been increasing slowly by about 0,1 years every year.
So I'd assume the 50% mark will be reached in the late 2030s/early 2040s if EV sales increase further.
50% sales should be reached by mid/late 2020s as manufacturers are finaly releasing the kinds of vehicles average consumers would buy.

That's just a guess, don't take it too seriously.

Ahhhh no.
Every time a major manufacturer produces tens of thousands more electric vehicles that always causes battery shortages.
Last time I checked DoE expects 70% of new car sales to be straight gas burners in 2030.
I say go electric, the more gasoline we export the better.

My prediction is it will be relatively fast adoption, as we see with Tesla's, then it will flatten as gasoline becomes very cheap from relative over production.

EVs will still be superior in most ways and likely the preferred option but with cheap gas, ICE vehicles will be around for quite some time I believe.

I would like to see a quick EV adoption, but I'm a bit skeptical it will be quick. I guess it depends mainly on who drags their feet and who doesn't, and the reasons behind those things.

One thing that's kind of good for EV's, at least I think, is the chip shortage. With lower vehicle sales it makes sense for car companies to sell the bigger, more luxurious, more expensive models. And that fits in with EV's right now since it's kind of hard to make a $15,000 economy EV that would sell well.

But who knows. EV's aren't superior in everything just yet. Infrastructure is a big one. I tried an EV once and know how frustrating it can be not being able to travel in certain directions due to complete lack of places to charge from.

Batteries. that why I don't think we will see a huge number of electric F150's. My esitimate is the cost of the battery pack is $16000 to $20000 for Ford. with that cost I think Ford is losing money or breaking even on the F-150 Lightening, maybe making a small profit in the higher trim levels.

.

If subsidies go away...

Sales will go away...


But fear not.

The government knows what’s best...

😉


>

.

how long?
 

Seems to me that, there's so much development happening, in every facet of the industry, that I wouldn't touch any prediction. Unknown quantities suddenly become known. Materials technology. Mass production capability. Innovation in materials processing. Work-arounds. Basic research. Alternate materials. Substitutes. On and on and on..................
Looking at photographs of the streets of New York City, New York. It took thirteen ( 13 ) years for motor vehicles to displace horse-drawn vehicles.
Carrots and sticks may determine the timeline.

With out subsidies and government money my 2011 leaf was almost a $40,000 compact car.
The $40,000 compact car market doesn't exist.

Besides range anxiety, recharging infrastructure and battery costs, weather and other environmental factors may keep it harder for EVs to dominate any market without any incentive or some other artificial way to push them down the throat of the average Joe.

I think it's safe to say, more than 3 years because manufacturing can't ramp up so fast. Probably safe to say less than 20 years. I think about 7 sounds right.

In a decade, EVs have gone from 0% to 3% of vehicle sales. It seems unreasonable to expect the next 47% will occur in 7 years, though I suppose it's possible. Sales would need to increase about 50% each year.

7 years would be the very next generation of EVs, meaning whatever comes next after the soon to be released EVs such as the F150, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Kia EV6. Do we expect to go from 3% of EV sales in the soon to be released generation, to 50% in the very next generation?

That's not to mention that EVs represent 3% of sales with $7,500-$10,000 in tax subsidies. Not only do they need to get better, they need to get a lot better; like $10,000 better (without actually costing that much extra).

Finally, those for whom EVs are a great fit likely already have an EV. Those wealthy enough to have multiple cars and a garage they can charge in. Getting each additional sale will become difficult as those whom an EV is not a good fit must have their obstacles removed (price, lack of charging infrastructure, limited range, slow charging).

There's not enough battery stuff available to increase large battery electric vehicles by 50% each year.
The battery market only seems to be able to handle tens of thousands of additional vehicles worth of growth each year.
Unless invading another country and taking their lithium is on the table.

And just think the radical left is trying to federalize building and zoning code. I'm sure that will make way more apartments and condos with no charging and a lot less single family homes with garages.

Considering how most of the EVs I saw on the wild were quite fancy, more focused on showing how supposedly better than an ICE-powered counterpart they were than on actual efficiency, it becomes harder to address actual needs of an average Joe while retaining cost at a reasonable level. And even if some project meant to address the actual needs of the average Joe does it while not becoming prohibitively expensive, it's worth to consider how some design features may be received with some skepticism by customers.

We have all the raw materials required for expanded battery production here. We just outsourced all the processing to another country and it will take years to rebuild that capability at a higher cost.

Well, it's going to get to a point where people start realizing:

- My neighbor's Tesla is 10 years old, shows no signs of stopping
- It still does 0-60 in 4 seconds
- I've bought and disposed of 2 ICE cars in the meantime
- Why would I buy another ICE car?

Its cheaper or you can get lower monthly payments?

Original Roadster?

Why did you dispose of 2 ICE cars, and how old were they when you bought vs when you sold?

You'd have to answer why you'd buy another ICE.

I would buy a hybrid or PHEV for trips beyond 200 miles. Most modern vehicles are extremely reliable and have low maintenance, requiring just an oil change once a year and perhaps other fluid changes every decade.

So far on my 2006 Acura (bought in 2010) with 120,000 miles on it, I've changed the gear oil once, engine oil every year, radiator fluid once, brake fluid once, replaced one 12v battery, bought 1 set of tires, and the power steering fluid was changed during a recall that replaced the hose. It's probably got another 100k trouble-free miles left.

I'd steer clear of the Roadster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRxA4DkuIqU

From 2008 to 2020 plug in hybrids and electric cars went from 0% to less than 4% of new sales.
2030 might see 10% of new sales being electric and plug in hybrid.

I don't know why you would but I can tell you why I would: Cost.

As much as I love EV's and would be thrilled to own a Tesla, I can't afford one. I'm spending at my limit right now as it is:

Monthly:
Payments: $180
Insurance:$150
Fuel:$100-$200
Repairs/maintenance About $120/month average for past three years.

If I traded it all in and got a Tesla how would that compare?

Add to that I only have two years left of payments. I'm driving a full sized car at that price and would prefer a minivan if o changed vehicles. I also prefer FWD or AWD over RWD since I live in a snowy area and I'm not completely sold on RWD yet. Also, heading south it's 269 miles to the nearest Tesla super charging station unless I want to add 3 hours to the trip.

But please, feel free to try to convince me to get an EV again. I love EVs!

Yep, I get it. The average American is spending $35k on a new car right now, though. Not me...

Based on the Gruber Motors video, someone with deep pockets and storage space should be hoarding Roadsters against the 3.0 battery pack.

That's another good point. Relying on a foreign source for critical components is troublesome, and even more pointless when the raw materials are available locally then shipped elsewhere instead of adding value to them locally.

My leaf cost $7k, that's the most I have ever spent on a car by a lot.

If they will be collectors items, I wouldn't mind grabbing a couple. You think they are getting close to minimum value now?

I contemplated a Delorean in 2009 figuring they were right at that age where they are viewed as crappy old cars, just before people started valuing them again. I think I could get a pretty clean example for around $15k at the time. Looking now it seems they are going for $40k.

They didn't make many, and there aren't new stainless steel bodies being manufactured, so they are just going to become more rare, especially the pristine ones.

That price would triple my monthly payments and who knows what it would do with insurance costs.

We were sad to have to sell ours. Once I get the Avalon paid off I might look into replacing the Prius with a used Leaf. Who knows what the cost of vehicles will be in a couple years of this chip shortage keeps prices high that long or not.

That's what I thought but back in 1987(?) When he first went bankrupt and they were going for 15k. Didn't pan out because demand never increased and supply was larger than demand. Still is, you can theoretically buy a Zero time assembly from the parts guy that has a warehouse full.

Transferring much of the chip manufacturing output away from China is the key to overcome such shortage. With so many other Asian countries with a higher degree of freedom, and not so far from consolidated shipping routes, it doesn't seem so hard to diversify suppliers instead of keeping reliant on China. Plus the added value of electronic components may also justify bringing manufacture back to Western countries.

We aren't even close to tapping out the prime EV demographic:

Middle to upper income
Married or cohabitating
Lives in a single family home
In the suburbs
Owns 2 or more cars

We could get to 25% EV sales with just that demographic.

Data point: Ford expects 40% EV sales by 2030.

Well having bought an EV used, myself, I can say with certainty I'll gladly buy a newer one when something becomes available that's not $35,000, and has a range greater than a hundred miles. I understand that I'll be waiting a while, but I'm content to continue driving my $11,500 Leaf until then.

Worldwide or only at the American domestic market?

Global. Unless things change the USA will continue to lag Europe and China in EV adoption.

For 2020 in Europe EVs made up 6.2% of sales and PHEVs were 5.2%
For 2020 in the USA BEVs made up 1.8% of sales. I can't find PHEV market share for 2020 but they were 0.9% last month.

If EVs become way better than ICE by virtue of batteries that suck a lot less and abundant charging infrastructure, then the transition would occur relatively rapidly. It's not like a higher single digit sales figure abroad is indicative of a permanent trend.

The timing isn't right for EVs for most US consumers. There isn't enough battery supply to manufacture them in larger quantities, there isn't adequate charging infrastructure, and batteries are still terrible.

All that said, I'll probably own one in the next couple years because I'm an early adopter and an EV would suit some of my needs well.

The trend is codified in law in Europe

I meant relative to US adoption.

Hitting 50% sales has more to do with EVs becoming better over time than anything else.

Gaia isn't going to reward Europe because 5% of their vehicle purchases are EV.

... and I always feel compelled to point out that I'm a huge fan of EVs, and they certainly make sense in urban setting where particulate and NOx emissions concentrate, and where trip distances are shorter. They are slightly less useful in a suburban setting, and very impractical for rural areas.

A road trip vehicle perhaps, but an off-grid Crosley Farm-O-Road would be eminently practical:

http://gardentractortalk.com/forums/...2893612805.jpg
http://gardentractortalk.com/forums/...2893612805.jpg

Anything can be practical if cost is no concern. Who is going to spend $40k on a farm buggy?

The problem with EVs isn't that they are worthless, but that they compete against alternatives with better value propositions to most people.

I don't think EVs really need to get better - they need to get cheaper. I think a lot of people would be OK with waiting to charge a car for 30 minutes every 200 miles on a road trip if that EV cost the same or less than a gas car and saved them money on fuel every day.

Other countries building economy of scale for EVs will help reduce costs. Car companies building EVs on dedicated platforms optimized for EVs will help bring down cost as will going form building tens of thousands of a car to hundreds of thousands of that car. With volume comes cost savings.

The big unknown is charging. Will we build out the charging network necessary to make long distance EV travel possible? I don't know. It will happen organically in some areas were there are enough EVs to justify building out the network. Other rural and remote areas will need to be subsidized just like we subsidize building road networks, telephones, internet and other infrastructure into rural areas.

For those who don't appreciate the classics, here are three offings in the $12K range

https://superatv-offroadatlas.com/of...g-1024x628.png

www.superatv.com: THE BEST ELECTRIC UTVS OF 2020

$1.6K penalty over the gas version. Bet there's no sickle mower option. Or street legality.