PHEV more environmental than EV
 

I've posted these thoughts elsewhere, but decided to consolidate them here. My prediction despite sales figures to the contrary is that hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales will increase in the coming years.

Hybrids have been on the market for 21 years, and yet their market share has dropped from 2013 to 2019 accounting for only 2% of US vehicle sales.

"Hybrids captured 3.2% of the light vehicle market in 2013 but were at 2% in 2019. Plug-in hybrids and all-electrics combined accounted for 2.1% of the light vehicle market in 2019."

Most attention has been given to full EV, with hardly any attention on PHEVs. This despite the fact that the #2 highest selling plug-in vehicle is the Prius Prime, a PHEV. Only the Tesla Model 3 outsells it.

The RAV4 Prime PHEV is out now and boasts 300 horsepower, AWD, 40 EV mile range, and 40 MPG in hybrid mode. Even more slick is that Toyota put a 16 kWh battery in it, which is the minimum size that qualifies for the full federal tax credit ($7,500). That works out to a $469/kWh subsidy. Assuming Toyota can build that capacity for $150/kWh, that represents a $5,000 profit.

By minimizing the most costly component, the battery, and maximizing the utilization of the battery on most every trip, it reduces overall cost of ownership.

Maximizing battery utilization is why PHEVs are more environmentally friendly than EVs at the moment. We have a battery constrained market, meaning the limit to EV production is battery manufacturing. Therefore, it would be more environmentally friendly to spread a given battery supply among 10 PHEVs that travel 80% of miles in EV than to build a single EV that travels 100% of miles in EV.


Finally, EVs produce more CO2 in their manufacturing process than an ICE equivalent, meaning it takes thousands of traveled miles before an EV come out ahead on CO2 emissions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk

Are we going to mostly skip PHEVs and hybrids, or will they become more prevalent in the coming years?

I think a lot depends on battery tech. Currently, solid state and graphene seem more like unobtanium than real possibilities. However, if anything like the promises that hype masters for those technologies make ever becomes real, well maybe full EVs are no longer battery-limited on the production side.

I'm always open (and optimistic) to the future to change the calculus, but we can only take action based on what is currently available. To the best I can figure with current capabilities, hybrid and PHEV is the way to go.

My assumption is that consumers are still very in the dark on what a PHEV is, and what the advantages can be. Most probably think a PHEV has to be plugged in and confuse it with an EV. I had plenty of people ask me what happens when I ran out the battery on my Prius plug-in.

I think a lot depends on gas prices.

You said the RAV4 has a 16 kWh battery. That's practically an EV already. Imo, phev's are done

The average commute in the US is 30 miles, so the RAV4 Prime's 40 mile EV range is ideally suited to cover a majority of trips.

On the subject of "using EVs to reduce CO2 emissions" is pointless. The oil industry will just export that gasoline to S-hole countries.

Besides the raw materials requirement for a larger battery-powered range, another aspect I would consider is the suitability of an ICE to resort to some organic matter as a feedstock for biofuels such as ethanol and biomethane, instead of simply leaving it to rot away while releasing raw methane into the atmosphere. In the end, the ICE is still more relevant to the sustainability than some folks seem to believe.

People that live in our city I'm sure average less than 20 miles a day. I only go about 7-10 and live on the edge of town. There are thousands that live one direction or the other in the 5 valleys that make up our hub where 30 miles wouldn't be enough, but more than 1/2 the population is right here in the city limits. But the people here also like to take long trips out into the mountains, take long dirt roads, lose cell phone coverage for days, let alone be able to find a place to charge. That makes the PHEV, especially an upright AWD one, ideal. I especially love how Toyota is working the AWD. I hope Chevy does something similar, combine a Volt, a Malibu hybrid, and a new Trailblazer. Ford needs to get AWD on their plug in hybrid Escape and Edge.

A EV is great as a 2nd or 3rd car, but most people around here want a little more freedom than a pure EV offers.

Yes but a hypothetical 16kwhr EV would sell for what $5000?

No one would buy such a limited new BEV in today’s market

That’s what the marketing info said for the volt