September 2019 EV Scorecard

[redpoint5]

The Model 3 is up a decent amount, and the Bolt made a surge as the last month for $3570 in federal tax credits reduced by half that in October.

Overall, we're behind 2018 total sales. Is this the first year we'll have made negative progress in EV sales? Not a good sign at all.

https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev...eptember-2019/

[ME_Andy]

Possible reasons:

Gas is cheap
Overall vehicle sales are down
The Model 3 takes the luster off other EVs

The Model 3 point might seem like a stretch, but M3 sales are up while just about all other EV sales are down. So, I think there's something to it.

[Piotrsko]

M3 sales or deliveries affecting these numbers?

[redpoint5]

4 of the 5 top selling months for EVs were in 2018. I think this indicates that EVs aren't there yet as far as delivering sufficient benefits to the typical consumer for the price (value). People that want EVs probably already have them, for the most part (I'm still on the fence).

Tesla has through December, and then federal tax credits expire completely. I expect US sales to fall off at that time.

The Chevy Bolt gets 6 more months of $1875 federal tax credit, and a slightly higher range model (2020) is set to hit dealers this month.

None of the other manufacturers are really set to sell in volume, except perhaps Nissan. Maybe those sales will strengthen once Chevy and Tesla lose their tax credits.

[redpoint5]

Well, Tesla's federal tax credits are completely expired now. 2019 closed the year with 10% fewer US EV sales compared with 2018, so not only are EV sales not massively increasing, they are declining. It appears global EV sales will be down a similar amount too, despite massive government incentives and subsidies. This is a big disappointment in my view. How are EVs supposed to eclipse ICE sales when they only represent 1% of sales with a $7,500+ advantage? Once those are gone, like Tesla and soon GM will face, what chance to they have?

Batteries have got to get much better in price/performance to not only overcome the loss of enormous tax incentives, but to then overtake ICE sales.

I expect plug-in hybrids to become more popular. As I've always said, manufacturers are foolish to burn their credits with battery sizes less than 16 kWh. At 16 kWh, they are being subsidized $470 per kWh, which is far more than their cost to manufacture, which is closer to $150 or less.

[Vman455]

There are still some bright spots. Overall US vehicle sales were down a couple percentage points for the year, so the EV downturn has to be seen in the context of that. Tesla had easily its best quarter ever, despite the tax credit at a quarter of its original value. Of course, the real test will be Q1 2020 when we'll find out if there were a lot of people wanting to get a Model 3 before the credit expired completely. But with the Model Y and Cybertruck on the horizon, that Tesla was still able to sell as many cars as they did (while a bunch of people presumably wait for those) is good news.

The problem with everyone else is, their products aren't nearly as compelling as they should be comparatively IMO.