Tesla Semi, 500-miles

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Negatory on an OR question?

Rejects the premise that either will achieve 50% EV sales? That's a possibility.

My thinking is that if the pilot group of EV trucks show substantial lifetime operating cost reductions, the commercial sector will very rapidly make the transition.

Passenger vehicle sales may saturate the availability of home infrastructure such that most anyone that can accomodate EV charging will own one, but a substantial percent of the population would not have reasonable means to charge at home.

[freebeard]

A third possibility I hadn't considered.

People who don't have a carport need to have a solar car.

[redpoint5]

The thing about not having sufficient range to reach your destination as you leave home in an ICE, is that at most it sets you back 5 minutes. In my case, it sets me back 2.

Maybe I depart to Eugene and realize I don't have enough fuel, so my trip extends from 80 minutes to 85 minutes. I don't even need to notify the customer I'm running behind.

Leave in a solar powered car without sufficient range, and we're talking 20 minutes minimum. Now I'm nearly half an hour behind.

Few will be willing to make that compromise. Retired folk might have the time to spare, but then they are also least likely to adopt new technology and new routines.

[freebeard]

I was already retired when I moved from a 1971 Superbeetle to a 1990 Metro. Does that count?

I'm holding onto the Superb Beetle while the resale value rises, waiting for the price of an FUV to fall. Although I like the profile of the Faction delivery drone better. A driven version would be a 1+1 sport commuter.

[redpoint5]

Exceptional people do not make the rule.

[freebeard]

You are correct. It's the ones with the gold.

[redpoint5]

I've got gold crowns. I rule!

[freebeard]

I'm down to two gold crowns, so I drool.

[What was the thread about?]

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

The actual weight of the cargo is the other number they really need to release. Until they do the claim by Daimler and Gates it couldn't be done really still stands. It wasn't the 500 miles that would be impossible because even 2000 miles would be possible by putting nothing but batteries in the trailer, but having a traditional 45,000 pounds of cargo and going 500 miles on a single charge is what's difficult. Daimler's trucks have smaller batteries to keep the weight similar to a diesel setup so they have lower ranges.

The deafening silence from Tesla on tractor weight and speed is a very strong indicator that Daimler's CEO and Gates were right. As pointed out in the video that Redpoint linked the speed in the Tesla video is less than 55 mph. The driver slowed down to 50 mph for the last 100 miles to make the trip without running out of juice.

I'd say the video is close to the GVW of the Tesla Semi tractor but the problem is he compares it to an "average" semi when he should be comparing it to a daycab as both versions of the Tesla Semi are day cabs. The Tesla is likely hauling about 8K less than diesel day cab outfitted for regional hauls.

Which means that it in fact would break the laws of physicals for a battery semi today to haul the same CARGO load 500 miles at highway speeds. I would argue highway speeds for an OTR semi are 62 - 65 mph.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Engineering Explained has another video talking about the Tesla Semi.

Do you think we'll reach 50% of commercial hauling going electric first, or 50% of passenger vehicles?

Decent video - better than his last that estimated the Semi weighed 20,000 lbs. He missed a few things on the battery size and diesel comparison but really we are just guessing until Tesla publishes the specs or someone posts a build book online.

Personal vehicles get to 50% before Class 8 trucks. For the simple reason that light duty mandates are more aggressive and we don't have the tech today for real OTR BEV Class 8 trucks.

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

10,000 , 20,000, 30,000 new OTR trucks a year vs 1.3 million teslas? My guess is no.

220K Class 8 trucks were sold in 2021. About half are long-haul.

[aerohead]

I wasn't going to spend $115.
Here's a peek.
https://www.sae.org/standards/conten...98706/preview/