Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Mechanic
Your first choice is irrelevant. The only choice that matters is the one you make after the elimination of one wrong choice. Might as well make it two choices with one prechosen and you have the chance to change it.
Was it one in 3 when you started? Sure if no choice was ever eliminated.
50%
regards
mech
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The first choice is absolutely relevant and the whole reason there is even a discussion. Since the host must open a goat, your first choice forces his decision.
If you choose the car (1/3) chance, switching your choice will always lose.
If you choose a goat (2/3) chance, switching your choice will always win.
If the chance is 50:50, why does empirical evidence show that switching wins the car 2/3 of the time? This has been tested numerous times, including on Mythbusters.