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Old 02-23-2015, 06:02 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Your first choice is irrelevant. The only choice that matters is the one you make after the elimination of one wrong choice. Might as well make it two choices with one prechosen and you have the chance to change it.

Was it one in 3 when you started? Sure if no choice was ever eliminated.

50%

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Old 02-23-2015, 06:28 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Marilyn's pretty hot. She's held up well over the years, even if IQ tests haven't:


Marilyn vos Savant Biography, Marilyn vos Savant's Famous Quotes - QuotesSays . COM

When I had my IQ tested in high school, they wouldn't tell me the result, because they didn't "want [me] to get a swelled head". Well, they got their way about that.
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Old 02-23-2015, 07:14 PM   #13 (permalink)
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RedDevil, this is the table from the article, look at Game 6. Goat Goat Auto Stay: Lose. It does not specify whether you choose door one or door two, just that they show you the third door, so in Game 6, they show you door three, which is the car, but you stay, and lose, which means that you chose a goat after seeing the car.

Freebeard, I almost forgot. I think that I have the same adblocking stuff set up on [now I am using my sister's laptop) as I had on every one that I have owned in the last few years, as well as my father's. You wrote that vos Savant was hot and there was an ad for Asian dating. I forgot, but remembered when it showed me a Philippine dating site.

Is she Asian dating site ad hot?
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Old 02-23-2015, 07:22 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Mechanic View Post
Your first choice is irrelevant. The only choice that matters is the one you make after the elimination of one wrong choice. Might as well make it two choices with one prechosen and you have the chance to change it.

Was it one in 3 when you started? Sure if no choice was ever eliminated.

50%

regards
mech
The first choice is absolutely relevant and the whole reason there is even a discussion. Since the host must open a goat, your first choice forces his decision.

If you choose the car (1/3) chance, switching your choice will always lose.
If you choose a goat (2/3) chance, switching your choice will always win.

If the chance is 50:50, why does empirical evidence show that switching wins the car 2/3 of the time? This has been tested numerous times, including on Mythbusters.
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Old 02-23-2015, 07:28 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Yep, the key to all of this (as I understand it) is that the host intentionally makes his choice in a way that doesn't give you any more info.
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Old 02-23-2015, 07:30 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Xist View Post


RedDevil, this is the table from the article, look at Game 6. Goat Goat Auto Stay: Lose. It does not specify whether you choose door one or door two, just that they show you the third door, so in Game 6, they show you door three, which is the car, but you stay, and lose, which means that you chose a goat after seeing the car.

Freebeard, I almost forgot. I think that I have the same adblocking stuff set up on [now I am using my sister's laptop) as I had on every one that I have owned in the last few years, as well as my father's. You wrote that vos Savant was hot and there was an ad for Asian dating. I forgot, but remembered when it showed me a Philippine dating site.

Is she Asian dating site ad hot?
That table doesn't make sense until you logically determine that the contestant has picked door 1. If you assume the contestant has picked any other door, that table is meaningless.

Note that there are only three options for the initial state of the game, so Game 1 = Game 4, Game 2 = Game 5, Game 3 = Game 6. The difference between the top half and the bottom half are whether the contestant switches or stays. Switching wins 2/3, staying wins 1/3.
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Old 02-23-2015, 07:47 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
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That table doesn't make sense until you logically determine that the contestant has picked door 1. If you assume the contestant has picked any other door, that table is meaningless.
Fine, but the contestant chooses door number one, is shown the car behind door number three, and stays, after seeing the correct answer.

Goat Goat Auto Stay Lose.
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Old 02-23-2015, 08:37 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Irrelevant, the host is always going to choose the goat. Therefore one goat is automatically eliminated. Your first choice is not a choice and regardless of your choice the host will choose to eliminate one of your options and you have not comitted to your final choice. I stand by my original statement. The host has a maximum of two choices and so do you.

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Old 02-23-2015, 08:49 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Fine, but the contestant chooses door number one, is shown the car behind door number three, and stays, after seeing the correct answer.

Goat Goat Auto Stay Lose.
The host ALWAYS shows a goat. Not a car.
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Old 02-23-2015, 09:05 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Mechanic View Post
Irrelevant, the host is always going to choose the goat. Therefore one goat is automatically eliminated. Your first choice is not a choice and regardless of your choice the host will choose to eliminate one of your options and you have not comitted to your final choice. I stand by my original statement. The host has a maximum of two choices and so do you.

50%
First of all, you are wrong with: "the host is always going to choose the goat." The host will always choose "a" goat. There are two. If you pick the car, the host gets a choice. if you pick a goat, the host has no choice at all. He MUST choose the other goat. This forced choice is what skews the odds.

Second, it's illogical to say the contestant has only two choices. The contestant starts with three choices and the host can't force him to change. At a minimum, the contestant has three options to choose from.

Finally, if you have a 50% chance at winning something and then test it empirically, it will come up as a win close to 50% (closer to 50% the more times you try). Empirical testing of the Monty Hall scenario comes up with ~2/3 wins for switching your choice and `1/3 for staying. How do you justify the empirical testing with your 50% response?

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