Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Mechanic
Irrelevant, the host is always going to choose the goat. Therefore one goat is automatically eliminated. Your first choice is not a choice and regardless of your choice the host will choose to eliminate one of your options and you have not comitted to your final choice. I stand by my original statement. The host has a maximum of two choices and so do you.
50%
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First of all, you are wrong with: "the host is always going to choose the goat." The host will always choose "a" goat. There are two. If you pick the car, the host gets a choice. if you pick a goat, the host has no choice at all. He MUST choose the other goat. This forced choice is what skews the odds.
Second, it's illogical to say the contestant has only two choices. The contestant starts with three choices and the host can't force him to change. At a minimum, the contestant has three options to choose from.
Finally, if you have a 50% chance at winning something and then test it empirically, it will come up as a win close to 50% (closer to 50% the more times you try). Empirical testing of the Monty Hall scenario comes up with ~2/3 wins for switching your choice and `1/3 for staying. How do you justify the empirical testing with your 50% response?