I've posted these thoughts elsewhere, but decided to consolidate them here. My prediction despite sales figures to the contrary is that hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales will increase in the coming years.
Hybrids have been on the market for 21 years, and yet their market share has dropped from 2013 to 2019 accounting for only 2% of US vehicle sales.
"Hybrids captured 3.2% of the light vehicle market in 2013 but were at 2% in 2019. Plug-in hybrids and all-electrics combined accounted for 2.1% of the light vehicle market in 2019."
Most attention has been given to full EV, with hardly any attention on PHEVs. This despite the fact that the #2 highest selling plug-in vehicle is the Prius Prime, a PHEV. Only the Tesla Model 3 outsells it.
The RAV4 Prime PHEV is out now and boasts 300 horsepower, AWD, 40 EV mile range, and 40 MPG in hybrid mode. Even more slick is that Toyota put a 16 kWh battery in it, which is the minimum size that qualifies for the full federal tax credit ($7,500). That works out to a $469/kWh subsidy. Assuming Toyota can build that capacity for $150/kWh, that represents a $5,000 profit.
By minimizing the most costly component, the battery, and maximizing the utilization of the battery on most every trip, it reduces overall cost of ownership.
Maximizing battery utilization is why PHEVs are more environmentally friendly than EVs at the moment. We have a battery constrained market, meaning the limit to EV production is battery manufacturing. Therefore, it would be more environmentally friendly to spread a given battery supply among 10 PHEVs that travel 80% of miles in EV than to build a single EV that travels 100% of miles in EV.
Finally, EVs produce more CO2 in their manufacturing process than an ICE equivalent, meaning it takes thousands of traveled miles before an EV come out ahead on CO2 emissions.
Are we going to mostly skip PHEVs and hybrids, or will they become more prevalent in the coming years?