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Old 02-21-2018, 01:36 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It is only in the USA that the camry was ever considered a mid sized car. Everywhere else it was/is a very big car.

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Old 02-21-2018, 02:17 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
These are the worst kind of graphs; the kind that cut the bottom off to make it look like fuel economy quadrupled. Fuel economy barely improved. Laws may have had an influence, but rising fuel prices and improvements in technology were also factors.

The nearly worthless graph represents an almost 20% improvement in fuel economy 6 years.

This still terrible graph shows the trend started in 2004; 3 years before congress saved the world.
1. 20.8 mpg to 24.5 mpg is huge. That is 110 gallons of fuel per year for a typical driver.
2. Yes, the trend started in 2004 / 2005. If you think back that is when fuel prices doubled. However, the trend continued in the 2010's when fuel prices flatlined and then fell. Why? CAFE forced automakers to continue to improve fuel economy regardless of the price.

If you follow a specific car the trend is very clear. These are the last 8 generations of the Camry. Toyota kept the same basic 4 speed auto for DECADES. In 2008 they had just gotten back to the fuel economy that they had back in 1988. Then new CAFE regulations come into effect that say Toyota has to increase fuel economy 5% per year and presto, fuel economy takes off.

EDIT: for some reason I used the model breaks for a Honda Accord instead of Toyota Camry. Still the trend remains. Flatline then huge spike in fuel efficiency.
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Old 02-21-2018, 02:52 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by teoman View Post
It is only in the USA that the camry was ever considered a mid sized car. Everywhere else it was/is a very big car.
I'm aware of that. However, the OP lives in the USA where the most popular vehicles for personal use would be considered commercial trucks in the rest of the world. The typical (light duty) truck in the USA has a wheelbase a meter longer than a Toyota Camry and weighs 1000 kg more.
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Old 02-21-2018, 03:22 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Regarding the OP, I consider 22 MPG for the Camry/driver to be unacceptable unless the commute is very short. We still don't know what the driving environment is like, so our comments are mere speculation.

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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
1. 20.8 mpg to 24.5 mpg is huge. That is 110 gallons of fuel per year for a typical driver.
2. Yes, the trend started in 2004 / 2005. If you think back that is when fuel prices doubled. However, the trend continued in the 2010's when fuel prices flatlined and then fell. Why? CAFE forced automakers to continue to improve fuel economy regardless of the price.

If you follow a specific car the trend is very clear. These are the last 8 generations of the Camry. Toyota kept the same basic 4 speed auto for DECADES. In 2008 they had just gotten back to the fuel economy that they had back in 1988. Then new CAFE regulations come into effect that say Toyota has to increase fuel economy 5% per year and presto, fuel economy takes off.
I'm not discounting the effect of the pressure CAFE exerts, but I'm also not discounting the other factors contributing to the improvements. While I'm generally not in favor of government regulation, CAFE is among the best ways of artificially influencing fuel efficiency averages. The best way though is to simply increase the federal taxes collected on every gallon of fuel, and then reduce income tax in proportion.

Like everything, fuel economy improvements are subject to diminishing returns. Boneheads regulators think they can look at a rate of improvement and extrapolate that out into the future like magic. Every doubling of fuel economy saves much less fuel than the previous doubling.

The example I always use to illustrate this point is the early CD burners. When I doubled my burning speed from 2x to 4x, it saved me 20 minutes. When I doubled again to 8x, it saved 10 minutes. Going from 8x to 16x saved 5 minutes, and doubling again to 32x saved a mere 2.5 minutes.

I'm all for improvements in efficiency, and current averages are a joke, but there are already fantastic vehicles out there that get great fuel economy. The Ford Fusion hybrid gets 45 MPG easily, and doesn't suck.
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Old 02-21-2018, 04:30 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Regarding the OP, I consider 22 MPG for the Camry/driver to be unacceptable unless the commute is very short. We still don't know what the driving environment is like, so our comments are mere speculation.
I suspect the OP has a city commute. If that is the case then 22 mpg is about right. If that is highway mpg then something is very wrong with the car or the driver's foot.


Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I'm not discounting the effect of the pressure CAFE exerts, but I'm also not discounting the other factors contributing to the improvements. While I'm generally not in favor of government regulation, CAFE is among the best way I could ever conceive of artificially influencing fuel efficiency averages. The best way is to simply increase the federal taxes collected on every gallon of fuel, and then reduce income tax in proportion.
Increasing the gas tax would be the most direct and effective way to reduce fuel consumption. It would also be a very unpopular way to do it which is why politicians chose the much more convoluted way of doing it through CAFE.

The recent drop in fuel prices would have been a fantastic time to put a floor on fuel prices by increasing the gas tax.


Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Like everything, fuel economy improvements are subject to diminishing returns. Boneheads regulators think they can look at a rate of improvement and extrapolate that out into the future like magic. Every doubling of fuel economy saves much less fuel than the previous doubling.
Yes, everything is subject to diminishing returns but we are nowhere near that place with fuel economy. Regulators are far from boneheads. CAFE targets are set in 7 year blocks and progress is reviewed periodically. In 2016 the EPA found that automakers were ahead of schedule but left the future targets the same. By 2025 a F150 will need to get 23 mpg combined. Today trucks are getting 22 mpg so 1 mpg in 7 years doesn't seem like a very lofty goal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I'm all for improvements in efficiency, and current averages are a joke, but there are already fantastic vehicles out there that get great fuel economy. The Ford Fusion hybrid gets 45 MPG easily, and doesn't suck.
The Fusion Hybrid does get good mileage and is very reasonably priced at about $25k. I've had several as rental cars and they drive well. It is a perfect example of how to easily hit future fuel economy goals using current technology. Why isn't the Hybrid the standard model instead of 2.5L 4 cylinder that only get 25 mpg?

Pretty much every automaker has a similar vehicle:

52 mpg Toyota Camry Hybrid
48 mpg Honda Accord Hybrid
46 mpg Chevy Malibu Hybrid
42 mpg Ford Fusion Hybrid
41 mpg Hyundai Sonata Hybrid

The question then is if a Honda Accord can get 48 mpg why does a Honda CR-V only manage 30mpg. The Ford Escape is only rated at 26 mpg. This is low hanging fruit. These should be in the mid 30's and they will be soon.
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Old 02-21-2018, 06:01 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Increasing the gas tax would be the most direct and effective way to reduce fuel consumption. It would also be a very unpopular way to do it which is why politicians chose the much more convoluted way of doing it through CAFE.

The recent drop in fuel prices would have been a fantastic time to put a floor on fuel prices by increasing the gas tax.
There's a chance it might happen, although conservative groups are already rallying against any suggestion of an increase.
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Old 02-21-2018, 06:22 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
I suspect the OP has a city commute. If that is the case then 22 mpg is about right. If that is highway mpg then something is very wrong with the car or the driver's foot.

Regulators are far from boneheads. CAFE targets are set in 7 year blocks and progress is reviewed periodically. In 2016 the EPA found that automakers were ahead of schedule but left the future targets the same. By 2025 a F150 will need to get 23 mpg combined. Today trucks are getting 22 mpg so 1 mpg in 7 years doesn't seem like a very lofty goal.
A driver should get roughly the same MPG regardless of stop and go driving or highway. I get 1 MPG better in gridlocked Portland traffic than steady 70 MPH. This is partially due to the horribly short 6th gear, but this applies to automatic transmission cars as well. The average driver and conditions will hit the EPA ratings, while a conservative driver can easily exceed them. The worst tank the Camry ever had was 24.5 MPG, which was probably someone else driving.

The CAFE targets I'm seeing from the WIKI says passenger cars today should be getting an average of 45 MPG, light trucks 37, and heavy trucks 25. Don't know where you are finding the 23 MPG figure. The 2025 combined car/truck average is mandated at 54.5 MPG. My comments on bonehead regulators is based on these unobtainable figures. The gen IV Prius doesn't even meet this, let alone getting the average of all cars and trucks to meet this in 7 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpor...e_fuel_economy
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:16 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
The Camry isn't a land yacht, at least not in the USA. Back in 1999 it was still a midsized car. (The Camry is classified as a large car today)
I didn't refer specifically to the Camry, the point is that most people tend to consider only the amount of cylinders while other factors that may be even more important for fuel-efficiency are simply ignored.
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:40 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
The CAFE targets I'm seeing from the WIKI says passenger cars today should be getting an average of 45 MPG, light trucks 37, and heavy trucks 25. Don't know where you are finding the 23 MPG figure. The 2025 combined car/truck average is mandated at 54.5 MPG. My comments on bonehead regulators is based on these unobtainable figures. The gen IV Prius doesn't even meet this, let alone getting the average of all cars and trucks to meet this in 7 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpor...e_fuel_economy
I'm talking about what a buyer will see on EPA window sticker not the completely unrealistic CAFE numbers. The attached chart is from your wiki link. Look at the bottom right corner to find a Ford F150 being required to get 23 mpg combined (EPA) in 2025

50.5 mpg CAFE in 2025 = 36 mpg combined on the EPA window sticker That makes the target seem a lot more reasonable doesn't it?

There is not a 54.5 mpg MANDATE in 2025. The 54.5 mpg was a TARGET set years ago when the EPA was expecting the car to truck product mix to be 67% car / 33% truck / SUV in 2025. Today the mix is almost opposite of that estimate so the CAFE requirement is lower.

Since 2007 there is no one CAFE requirement for all automakers. Instead CAFE requirements are set for each car or truck based on the footprint (Wheelbase x Track). Larger cars and trucks get lower requirements. At the end of each year each company has their own CAFE set based on the cars they actually sold. So CAFE is self-adjusting based on vehicle mix. (That is why a company like Fiat Chrysler can sell 90% trucks and SUVs today and not get hit with huge CAFE fines)

Three very important things are not discussed when the 2025 CAFE requirement are talked about in the media

1. CAFE mpg does not equal the mpg you will see on the EPA window sticker
2. CAFE requirements are self adjusting based on actual vehicle's sold
3. Each Automaker gets their own CAFE target.

EDIT: CAFE mpg and the EPA window sticker used to be the same. People complained that the mpg on the window sticker didn't come close to matching reality so is was adjusted down using a formula in 2008. People still complained that the mpg on the sticker didn't match reality so the EPA retweaked the formula and adjusted it down again in 2017.

MPG for CAFE is still based on the original unadjusted numbers. Automaker also get special bonus credits for things like hybrids, EVs and flex-fuel vehicles.
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Old 02-22-2018, 11:17 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
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Instead CAFE requirements are set for each car or truck based on the footprint (Wheelbase x Track).
Actual footage of a 2025 model under development:


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