COVID + high fuel prices. How much is my car worth?

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

You don't profit by doing what everyone else is doing (reacting), you profit by doing the opposite.

True. Unless I endup carless and homeless from selling when prices are high, or if I try to buy cheap cars or home when jobless from jobs drying up.

But still, that's good advice overall.

The question will be if the Prius will hold out until prices go back down.

[wdb]

In my ever so humble opinion* prices will not be coming down for a year, maybe two years. And "coming down" might actually look more like "not going up". New car inventory will have to increase dramatically first, which requires computer chips that are still in short supply. Then the used car marketplace needs to be refilled. I expect the US will be in recession at roughly the same time.






* These are all WAGs on my part. YMMV, grains of salt available upon request.

[redpoint5]

Yeah in the back of my mind that's what I'm wondering too. Inflation generally moves in 1 direction. Hard to imagine a 40% price increase in 1 year being a permanent feature though.

Also uncertain is how much longer we're going to get access to cheap Chinese products and the subsidized shipping rates. If we start tooling up the US, products are going to cost more.

It's also not sustainable to be paying kids at fast food joints double minimum wage. The owners of a franchise restaurant like McDonalds might only have $70k in profit at the end of the year when they pay minimum wage. They're running a charity if they have to pay $17/hr.

[JSH]

A. I would check what Carvana, Vroom, and CarMax will pay for the car. All will give you a real quote with about 2 minutes of work. That will give you a good idea of value and you can decided if you want to sell to them or try a private party sale.

B. I would sell the Prius and keep the Avalon. You live in a remote area and need a car to get to work. If you go down to one car don't keep the one with a bunch of potential problems.

C. Car prices aren't dropping this year - maybe not even next year unless we have a recession. We are still struggling to build vehicles. It isn't just chips that are in short supply - it is just about everything. You can expect new car production to be millions short of new car demand this year.

D. Chips are actually easier to build around than some other components. Build a vehicle, drive it to offline, strip the chips out, reuse them for another vehicle - repeat. We can use the same set of chips over and over to keep the assembly lines running. Then when a new shipment of chips arrive crews go out to offline, install the chips, program them, and ship the vehicle.

Some of our competitor have started shipping vehicle missing chips and leaving it to the dealer to install in customer's cars when they come available.


I'll be selling my Astro Campervan this summer. It is pretty crazy what people are asking for Astro vans. Base model cargo models with more than 200K for $6,000! I paid $4300 for my fully load passenger model with 75K miles back in 2015.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Y
It's also not sustainable to be paying kids at fast food joints double minimum wage. The owners of a franchise restaurant like McDonalds might only have $70k in profit at the end of the year when they pay minimum wage. They're running a charity if they have to pay $17/hr.

They raised prices. The average price for a Big Mac (just the sandwich) is $6.05 in the USA right now. My cheeseburger meal (regular size) was $6.48 in Raleigh, NC. The "$5 foot-longs" at the Subway near my work are now about $9. The large pizza at my local brewery was $23 last night - it was about $16 back in early 2020. (Before tip of course)

[redpoint5]

Yeah, $10 pizza Tuesday at Papa Murphy's is now $13. I used to leave a tip for the kids, but not anymore that they're making $16/hr.

The poor and the extremely wealthy have made out very well in the pandemic, and the middle-class have foot the bill.

[Isaac Zachary]

Everything goes up except wages. Well, wages just take longer and never really catch up.

There is only one listing for a rental in town. It's a 3 bedroom for $3,000 per month.

My mindset is yes, I complain too much, but I'm also ready for whatever comes. If, at worst, I have to make a McDonald's wage and move the family into a camper or even a cave, I'll do it. On a lighter note, if we have to go without internet, cell phones, a decent car and eat beans and rice every day: No biggy. That was my life when I was a kid.

It's when there's the probability or reality of absolutely nothing to eat is when it's time to start getting worried.

But before any of that doom and gloom, if there's an opportunity to live better (without doing something bad like robbing a bank or killing off a rich familiy member) why not take advantage?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

Everything goes up except wages. Well, wages just take longer and never really catch up.

There is only one listing for a rental in town. It's a 3 bedroom for $3,000 per month.

My mindset is yes, I complain too much, but I'm also ready for whatever comes. If, at worst, I have to make a McDonald's wage and move the family into a camper or even a cave, I'll do it. On a lighter note, if we have to go without internet, cell phones, a decent car and eat beans and rice every day: No biggy. That was my life when I was a kid.

It's when there's the probability or reality of absolutely nothing to eat is when it's time to start getting worried.

But before any of that doom and gloom, if there's an opportunity to live better (without doing something bad like robbing a bank or killing off a rich familiy member) why not take advantage?

Wages pretty much have to catch up to inflation in the long run, as they are essentially 2 sides of the same coin. As I stated above, the poor and rich made out in this pandemic.

People making minimum wage got paid to stay home, got bonus checks, and then had their wages double when they returned to work.

The medium wage earners had their paychecks stay flat, were not given money to stay home, had smaller bonus checks from the government, and got to see food, shelter, and transportation prices increase 20-40%.

Rich folks that own Google and Amazon made record profits as the government shutdown the small/medium businesses and drove consumers to the big businesses. Amazon and Google then advocate for increasing minimum wages knowing it prices out the startups, and they already pay their employees above those wages.

You've got the same mindset I do, that I'll make due at whatever economic level I find myself. It's impossible to starve in the US except for severe neglect of the disabled or otherwise handicapped decision makers. The only thing that will cause starvation here is a catastrophic global conflict.

Regarding Jason's advice, he's absolutely right that you don't hold onto the unreliable car and sell the reliable one. You and Xist seem to compete to see who can come up with the most "unconventional" ideas.

[Isaac Zachary]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

You and Xist seem to compete to see who can come up with the most "unconventional" ideas.

I was thinking of trading both cars in for a small airplane and then doing a steam engine conversion and running it on burning cow pies...

[redpoint5]

Take that idea, wander off on 6 tangents filling many paragraphs, then end with needing to do push ups, and we'd not be able to tell you two apart. :P