Ford finally gets it

[ME_Andy]

Ford is finally going big on EVs. Cool.

“The demand is so much higher than we expected.”

"We are now expecting to produce 600,000 EVs/yr globally by end of 2023. 2x our original plan."

"We aim to become the 2nd biggest EV producer within the next couple years."

"Our job now is to meet the demand."

https://insideevs.com/news/548955/fo...ev-projection/

I bought some Ford stock. I was early on Tesla, hopefully I'll be early on Ford. I don't own Tesla stock any longer.

VW gets it. GM gets it (I think...) Fiat Chrysler/Honda/Toyota do not get it yet.

[redpoint5]

I suspected Ford could do very well and had my eye on it the past year, but sadly never invested. I'm up 44% on the year for GM though, and 132% for the single Tesla share I own (so that people who want to say I'm a Tesla shill can point to my 1 share as evidence).

The market doesn't make any sense to me, and I'm still leery of a dead cat bounce. That said, I have most of my money in the market as of a year ago and am up quite a lot since then (30%).

I hear good things about the e-Mustang, and was always preferred their cars on the rental lot compared to the GM and Chrysler offerings.

That said, I think Toyota is going to crush it.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Let's wait to see if Ford won't lose its track once again, as it often does. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tesla becoming more relevant than Ford within some 10 or 20 years, even though I won't place any bet on it right now.

[thingstodo]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

That said, I think Toyota is going to crush it.

Hmm. I have not seen any Toyota news lately. Based on what they have said this year, I'm out of Toyota entirely (and it would take a lot of convincing to get me anywhere near them)

Last I heard, Toyota:
- still had their head in the sand, stating that they would be selling 20% EVs in 2050
- were still talking up ICE as a strong seller in 2050 (50% or more I think)
- were still doing hybrids with tiny batteries, not decent sized batteries with 'range extender' ICE. Most of their vehicles still don't have plugs, right?
- were still committed to their path on Hydrogen fuel cells for passenger vehicles (the other 30% in 2050 ... )

Did I miss a MASSIVE turnaround at Toyota? I hope I did!

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Toyota could eventually make EVs resorting only to off-the-shelf parts right now, yet its more conservative approach makes some sense. I don't see the ICE as totally unsuitable within a foreseeable future, even though nowadays I consider plug-in hybrids more likely to become the usual within 10 to 20 years on most markets with a more substantial yearly sales volume.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by thingstodo

Hmm. I have not seen any Toyota news lately. Based on what they have said this year, I'm out of Toyota entirely (and it would take a lot of convincing to get me anywhere near them)

Last I heard, Toyota:
- still had their head in the sand, stating that they would be selling 20% EVs in 2050
- were still talking up ICE as a strong seller in 2050 (50% or more I think)
- were still doing hybrids with tiny batteries, not decent sized batteries with 'range extender' ICE. Most of their vehicles still don't have plugs, right?
- were still committed to their path on Hydrogen fuel cells for passenger vehicles (the other 30% in 2050 ... )

Did I miss a MASSIVE turnaround at Toyota? I hope I did!

Toyota doesn't talk a big game years in advance, like Tesla does. It simply announces their next big thing a few months before making it available for sale.

You're assuming EV is the most profitable platform. Currently EVs lose money for everyone but Tesla, with larger ICE vehicles being where big profit margins are found.

Electrifying a vehicle is extremely easy, especially for a company that has already figured out how to do the most difficult task; integrating ICE and electric into a hybrid. In other words, if/when EV becomes a profitable endeavor, they will easily be able to make those products.

Toyota has not only announced an EV (bZ4X) and had previously offered an EV (RAV4), but they announced solid state battery technology to be appearing in products in the not too distant future.

It was bad timing for all the manufacturers to jump into EVs this early because battery technology sucks, and not just a little. Only a great fool would get into an unprofitable game and rave about how awesome the sucky technology is. A better strategy is to point out the obviously terrible current state of technology while continuing development in secrecy.

I tend to agree hydrogen is a dumb idea, but that's only evident by hindsight. Had hydrogen gained political favor, Toyota would have been among the few to mightily benefit. They gambled on that and probably lost. It was high risk, high reward.

EVs accounted for 2% of vehicle sales with $7,500-$10,000 in subsidies in the US. They have a very long way to go to become compelling to the masses, let alone become profitable.

[freebeard]

thingstodo -- Single source and unsubstantiated:

In March, South Korean media reported that Toyota would use Tesla technology to reduce R&D for its vehicles' electronic operating and self-driving system; in turn Tesla could make use of Toyota's manufacturing efficiency for producing affordable, sub-$25,000 EVs. A Toyota spokesperson dismissed the report as "speculation".

https://gulfnews.com/business/fully-....1636619589103

[ME_Andy]

Toyota is screwed if that solid state battery they've been talking about for years and years doesn't work out.

[ME_Andy]

@redpoint I don't think the problem for Toyota is designing the vehicle. The problem is setting up the supply chain to do EVs at a massive scale.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Toyota has not only announced an EV (bZ4X) and had previously offered an EV (RAV4), but they announced solid state battery technology to be appearing in products in the not too distant future.

It was bad timing for all the manufacturers to jump into EVs this early because battery technology sucks, and not just a little. Only a great fool would get into an unprofitable game and rave about how awesome the sucky technology is. A better strategy is to point out the obviously terrible current state of technology while continuing development in secrecy.

I tend to agree hydrogen is a dumb idea, but that's only evident by hindsight. Had hydrogen gained political favor, Toyota would have been among the few to mightily benefit. They gambled on that and probably lost. It was high risk, high reward.

Meanwhile other automakers place higher bets on the EV game, Toyota is not placing all its eggs on just one basket. And even though Hydrogen doesn't make much sense for the average Joe as CNG could do, Toyota can easily fund its advanced R&D, selling both its hybrids and some "outdated" stuff which actually works good enough for its conservative customer base all around the world.