how much longer for the ICE now Americia's best selling Vehicle has gone electric?
 

I'm sure this has been discussed, but looking at this after Americias best selling vehicle turns 100% electric. Just my thoughts. If Ford can produce all the F-150 electrics to meet to demand, this a game changer. But, has I said elewhere, I think we will see a very limited supply.

But here is my point. there are 276 million cars in the USA

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/

And we can make and sell about 18 million a year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1951/

276 million divided by 18 million = 15.3 years, just to make and sell enough EVs to replace the ICE.

I think we are 7-8 years away from the point where Evs out number the sales of ICE.

This might be to simplitic, but I think we have at least 15 more years of ICE being the majority of vehicles on the road.

Also, there are remote areas where EVs will never replace ICE anytime soon. In areas where there is no GRID and not much sun, think Alaska, parts of Canada.

What's you best guess on when ICE will be 50% replaced?

The average age of a car in the US was 11,9 years in 2020.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...projected-age/
The age has been increasing slowly by about 0,1 years every year.
So I'd assume the 50% mark will be reached in the late 2030s/early 2040s if EV sales increase further.
50% sales should be reached by mid/late 2020s as manufacturers are finaly releasing the kinds of vehicles average consumers would buy.

That's just a guess, don't take it too seriously.

Ahhhh no.
Every time a major manufacturer produces tens of thousands more electric vehicles that always causes battery shortages.
Last time I checked DoE expects 70% of new car sales to be straight gas burners in 2030.
I say go electric, the more gasoline we export the better.

My prediction is it will be relatively fast adoption, as we see with Tesla's, then it will flatten as gasoline becomes very cheap from relative over production.

EVs will still be superior in most ways and likely the preferred option but with cheap gas, ICE vehicles will be around for quite some time I believe.

I would like to see a quick EV adoption, but I'm a bit skeptical it will be quick. I guess it depends mainly on who drags their feet and who doesn't, and the reasons behind those things.

One thing that's kind of good for EV's, at least I think, is the chip shortage. With lower vehicle sales it makes sense for car companies to sell the bigger, more luxurious, more expensive models. And that fits in with EV's right now since it's kind of hard to make a $15,000 economy EV that would sell well.

But who knows. EV's aren't superior in everything just yet. Infrastructure is a big one. I tried an EV once and know how frustrating it can be not being able to travel in certain directions due to complete lack of places to charge from.

Batteries. that why I don't think we will see a huge number of electric F150's. My esitimate is the cost of the battery pack is $16000 to $20000 for Ford. with that cost I think Ford is losing money or breaking even on the F-150 Lightening, maybe making a small profit in the higher trim levels.

.

If subsidies go away...

Sales will go away...


But fear not.

The government knows what’s best...

😉


>

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how long?
 

Seems to me that, there's so much development happening, in every facet of the industry, that I wouldn't touch any prediction. Unknown quantities suddenly become known. Materials technology. Mass production capability. Innovation in materials processing. Work-arounds. Basic research. Alternate materials. Substitutes. On and on and on..................
Looking at photographs of the streets of New York City, New York. It took thirteen ( 13 ) years for motor vehicles to displace horse-drawn vehicles.
Carrots and sticks may determine the timeline.

With out subsidies and government money my 2011 leaf was almost a $40,000 compact car.
The $40,000 compact car market doesn't exist.

Besides range anxiety, recharging infrastructure and battery costs, weather and other environmental factors may keep it harder for EVs to dominate any market without any incentive or some other artificial way to push them down the throat of the average Joe.