If Gasoline Hits 10 USD a Gallon

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Higher fuel prices mean that shipping everything from overseas will no longer be cheaper than making those things in each country where they are needed, and this equals more jobs that pay what they are worth.

Lower fuel consumption means a lot less pollution, and that means healthier people and the environment that we all depend on for our food, water, and air will be a lot better off, too.

Fuel cost would have to rise a long way for that to happen, and it may also have another unforeseen effect - inflation. One of the reasons we (in the west) had growth from the mid-90s to 2008 without inflation is because costs went down as the jobs and factories went to China and India.

I agree on the polution thing though.

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

Tax the Rich feed the poor until there are no Rich no more.

...

I'm getting damn tired of living below MY means and being expected to pay for YOU living above yours. The whole govt of the US should be fired immediately. I'll take some semi competent amateurs over these "smart" professionals any time as Jefferson said.

regards
Mech

I am on the left with it comes to politics but even I know you don't make the poor better off by making the rich poor.

As for your sentiments on government I agree and wish we could do the same here. I'm fed up with any level of government now seeming to make decisions in it's own interest and not of those who pay for it.

[user removed]

Inflation unforeseen?

Maybe most of us here are too young to remember 1976-1980 at least in the US.
Try paying a mortgage today when the interest is 18%.
Or asking for an 18% raise in pay to just make the same money you made last year, then add another 10%, totalling 28% A YEAR, to cover the higher taxes on the inflated income.

The only reason we don't have much higher inflation in the US today? Your home values are going down the toilet.

Sorry folks, that don't pay the grocery bill, gas bill, or any other bill you have, and not a single one of them is going down any time soon.

regards
Mech

[user removed]

The US national debt today is almost exactly the sum of monies spent since the LBJ era "Great Society" social programs. The same group of politicians who decided the Social Security "fund" was available for capital programs and replaced with govt IOUs.
Promissory notes, never paid.

Net reduction in poverty?

Nothing.

We have been taxing the Rich and feeding the poor for the better part of 50 years. You could rationally argue that it's the better part of 80 years.

I wonder how well those poor would be doing if 15 trillion dollars had not been spent on their "welfare", and invested in businesses that actually might earn a profit. I know it has bought a lot of votes and a lot of drugs, but other than that not much.

And we would not owe 48k for every living person in the US today, including a child who takes his first breath this morning, and bears the burden of that debt until he breathes his last breath.

regards
Mech

[user removed]

If anyone here thinks 600 billion in cash exiting the US every year, real cash not IOUs, is going to bring decent paying jobs back to the US, then they need to take a grade school course in accounting. I was raised by an accountant, and you can bet that meant I understood capital and financing. Our govt is cooking the books in ways that makes Bernie Madoff seem like an angel.

regards
Mech

[Arragonis]

I'm not in favour of the jobs going to China or India at all - we have lost a load too. The low costs preventing inflation is a bi-product of that happening. Also where that money goes is worrying too - China is a global superpower now, India a regional one.

When our economies start moving again all the current talk of defecit tackling will be forgotten and it will be playtime for governments again.

[Arragonis]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

...

And we would not owe 48k for every living person in the US today, including a child who takes his first breath this morning, and bears the burden of that debt until he breathes his last breath.

This debt our kids will have is the biggest drag. I'm glad uk.gov is trying to make savings, whether they are the right savings is questionable. Our previous uk.gov was uselessly spending money we didn't have instead of investing when we had the chance for 13 years. We will be paying for Mr Brown for a few decades to come and I doubt we will ever be free of it.

Back on topic - fuel hitting $10 a gallon won't happen in one go, unless there is a serious disaster in the mid-east or elsewhere. It will be a gradual ramping up of cost as the US market has to compete on price with China and India for supply. Same will happen here but the effect will be less as a % of the total cost because of tax. US gas prices nearly doubled a few years ago, it was ~15-30% here. Fuel is now 30% more than it was in 2005 - £1.31 a litre vs £0.98 then.

The best thing the US could do for its own security would be to start an efficiency program to use less but that means legislation and control which is not what people there will accept.

The other alternative is to use force to maintain supply. China knows this and is preparing itself to prevent that happening - with the money we in the west are sending it to pay for our iPhones, TVs, christmas toys, cars, ships, chemicals or indeed anything manufactured. China already owns Africa, the mid-east is next.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by merccom

that may be all well an good for those that live in new york city but for those that live in montana and kansas not so much so

Err... I do live in northern Nevada :-)

And from my limited experience of NYC, I wouldn't try biking there, at least not until I was tired of life.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by merccom

does nobody understand the differance between chooseing to live a life of austarity and having it imposed upon you?

Two problems there. First is that the "austerity" with respect to gasoline won't be imposed on you by government fiat, but by geology and economics. There's only so much oil in the ground. Most of the easy to get to oil has already been pumped out and burned. When it costs upwards of $100, $200, or more per barrel to drill wells, pump the oil out, and transport it to refineries, the gasoline made from that oil won't be sold for cheap.

Second is that you are defining non-austerity as spending a large fraction of your life sitting in an oversized, overstuffed vehicle (and if you're a typical American these days, you're probably overstuffed to match), burning gas to get to and from a place where you will work many hours just to pay for that vehicle and gas.

So who exactly is telling you that NOT living like that is austerity? And why do you believe them?

[user removed]

Nice chatting with your over the pond Arragonis.

The debt our US kids inherit is like the anchor on a US super carrier, at least here, per kid.

Gas prices will rise and fall, but the inevitable trend is up. Increasing the tax burden has the same effect as rising gas prices, the only difference is one goes in the OPEC toilet and the other goes in the toilet of political vote purchasing. OPEC understands that rising prices have a tipping point, just like climate change, and their resource is finite, which will solve the global emissions problem, more than likely before the planet becomes uninhabitable as some would have us believe.

We can see the same process looking at Britain and America, both countries are facing a decline in International influence with Britain further along in the process. While we may think China has serious political problems, they also have the advantage of not having to play stupid games for votes. Not an advocacy for their political system, but an admiration of their political willpower. 100 million electric bikes in China today, while we debate gas prices, a dedication to hydro and other energy sources outside of petroleum, shows that China has learned the lessons of our profligate consumption. China has the advantage of our history to guide their direction in progress.

The key point in your post is efficiency, and it is really our only hope, of prolonging the inevitable fact that China and India are the future economic superpowers of this century.
This is why "My Agenda" is to adopt the hydraulic option, which is technology that can be implemented today, without any "break even point" that requires massive influxes of non existent capital.

Future advancements in energy storage and application can never be predicted, although many would love to do so and use it to support their own "AGENDAS", which should be expected I guess.

Personally I find the US, at least the citizens who I know to be more politically inclined to become isolationists similar to our pre WW2 political attitude.

Supply and demand will drive oil prices to $10 a gallon in the US inevitably, but will also accelerate the development of alternatives, which will have the opposite effect. When oil has real competition for all of it's uses, alternatives will become inevitable and profitable, without the necessity for debt financing and the burden of an ever larger anchor on the beneficiaries.

regards
Mech

[Frank Lee]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

Maybe most of us here are too young to remember 1976-1980 at least in the US.

It sure was a great time to buy CDs!!!

...unlike now, where under the mattress is as good as anything.