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Old 02-14-2020, 12:02 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Money isn't a constraint, getting the seats to the Model3 factory is:


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Old 02-14-2020, 12:29 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Collectively, Walmart's fleet drivers log approximately 700 million miles per year.
https://corporate.walmart.com/newsro...lmart-delivers

They say that each driver logs over 100,000 annually, so they should have [almost 7,000 drivers [and semis]].

Quote:
Cooney points out that steer tires typically have a pretty brutal life. All the turning and engine power they're subjected to means they usually have to be replaced around 150,000 miles, which is anywhere from a year to a year-and-a-half of operation. Drive tires can last longer, 350,000 to 500,000 miles, because they don't deal with all the turning stress. That's about three years of operation — usually the length of a for-hire fleet's trade cycle, assuming the tires are maintained properly.

Trailer tires, which log about 20,000 miles annually, are “free rolling,” meaning no power is applied through the axle. Thus, they are designed with a relatively shallow tread.
https://www.fleetowner.com/fleet-man...losing-the-gap

Let's stick with 100,000 miles annually and 7,000 semis and drivers. The second source does not necessarily apply to the first, that would indicate that the trucks drive with a trailer less than 20% of the time. We lost our resident trucker, so I cannot ask him, but I will just use this information.

7,000 semis need two drive tires almost every year, eight drive tires almost every four years, and eight trailer tires every year. 7,000 x (2 + 8/4 + 8) = 7,000 x 12.

Walmart may go through 84,000 tires a year, or 1/2,000th of what this kid who, for one, welcomes our new Tesla overlord.

"At the end of 2019, Tesla's global sales since 2012 totaled over 891,000 units." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

I cannot find any numbers for January, but their goal is 500,000 vehicles this year, If they achieved that for January, they would have sold 41,667, which would put them around 933,000 to date.

To go from less than a million cars in seven or eight years to 20,000,000 robotaxis sounds ridiculous. Musk says they will have the technology by the end of the year, but how many targets has he made?

If Musk sells 100,000 robotaxis in 2021, almost 25% of his total sales in his best year to date, and he increased robotaxi production 62.09% a year, and every single robotaxi was on the road in 2030(!), there would be 20,001,266 of them, and the oldest ones might have a million miles.

This would involve selling over 1.1 million in 2026 and 7.7 million in 2030. Is that possible? How am I supposed to know?! Am I Hari Seldon?!

I do not have any idea how big the largest taxi fleet is. Google insists that it is Uber, but they are not taxis. What is the biggest fleet of taxis owned by the company?

I do not have any idea how to compare $50,000 Teslas and $200,000+ semis, but it is entirely possible that Tesla will own robotaxis worth more than Walmart's entire fleet, and maybe it would make sense to buy a tire company, but you had better believe that they would receive a bulk discount first.

It would also make sense to use smaller than 20" wheels. Didn't Jason of Engineering Explained say his 18" wheels were half the cost of 20" tires?
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:59 AM   #13 (permalink)
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...or 1/2,000th of what this kid who, for one, welcomes our new Tesla overlord.
I suspect your numerical speculations are as valid as his.

They include the Tweel in the video. There exist polyurethane tires. Owning the means of production doesn't resolve the disposal problem. A million-mile tire would.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:22 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmay635703 View Post
Google makes guaranteed money

Tesla does not

Google likely would not view that as a useful acquisition
Sort of similar to the Apple car rumor
Tesla would make money right away if they stopped buying small key industry companies like Grohmann automation, Maxwell and Hibar, stopped building new factories, invest way less in research, and so on.
Steady production for the next 5 years with great profits. Maybe they might grow a little year over year.

I'm glad they keep doing what they are doing now though.

Google would not buy Tesla to get an automotive company but to make use of its innovative force. They'd likely make Tesla expand at an accelerated rate, bearing losses for a couple of years.
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:40 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist View Post
https://corporate.walmart.com/newsro...lmart-delivers

They say that each driver logs over 100,000 annually, so they should have [almost 7,000 drivers [and semis]].

https://www.fleetowner.com/fleet-man...losing-the-gap

Let's stick with 100,000 miles annually and 7,000 semis and drivers. The second source does not necessarily apply to the first, that would indicate that the trucks drive with a trailer less than 20% of the time. We lost our resident trucker, so I cannot ask him, but I will just use this information.

7,000 semis need two drive tires almost every year, eight drive tires almost every four years, and eight trailer tires every year. 7,000 x (2 + 8/4 + 8) = 7,000 x 12.

Walmart may go through 84,000 tires a year, or 1/2,000th of what this kid who, for one, welcomes our new Tesla overlord.

"At the end of 2019, Tesla's global sales since 2012 totaled over 891,000 units." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

I cannot find any numbers for January, but their goal is 500,000 vehicles this year, If they achieved that for January, they would have sold 41,667, which would put them around 933,000 to date.

To go from less than a million cars in seven or eight years to 20,000,000 robotaxis sounds ridiculous. Musk says they will have the technology by the end of the year, but how many targets has he made?

If Musk sells 100,000 robotaxis in 2021, almost 25% of his total sales in his best year to date, and he increased robotaxi production 62.09% a year, and every single robotaxi was on the road in 2030(!), there would be 20,001,266 of them, and the oldest ones might have a million miles.

This would involve selling over 1.1 million in 2026 and 7.7 million in 2030. Is that possible? How am I supposed to know?! Am I Hari Seldon?!

I do not have any idea how big the largest taxi fleet is. Google insists that it is Uber, but they are not taxis. What is the biggest fleet of taxis owned by the company?

I do not have any idea how to compare $50,000 Teslas and $200,000+ semis, but it is entirely possible that Tesla will own robotaxis worth more than Walmart's entire fleet, and maybe it would make sense to buy a tire company, but you had better believe that they would receive a bulk discount first.

It would also make sense to use smaller than 20" wheels. Didn't Jason of Engineering Explained say his 18" wheels were half the cost of 20" tires?
I don't know why you are not an actuary or data analyzer instead of a speech pathologist. In your free time you play with numbers. Might as well get paid to do it.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:21 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Money isn't a constraint, getting the seats to the Model3 factory is:
Wouldn't it be cheaper/more efficient to simply purchase the surrounding property and pay the existing occupants to move elsewhere (the seat factory perhaps)?

The most efficient transportation is the one you don't have to make.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:57 PM   #17 (permalink)
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If you look at the map, they''d have to buy up and relocate a freeway interchange.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:28 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
If you look at the map, they''d have to buy up and relocate a freeway interchange.
I briefly looked, but not in detail. Mentor Graphics could be located anywhere.

Really though, I don't know why anyone would open a factory in CA, and especially in the highest rent areas.

I'd open a factory where cost of living is low, land is cheap, and utilities are cheap. Of course, it's probably advantageous to make 'em near to where you sell 'em, but there's lower rent property close by.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:12 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
I don't know why you are not an actuary or data analyzer instead of a speech pathologist. In your free time you play with numbers. Might as well get paid to do it.
I love doing speech therapy, but I do not know how to make a career out of it. I am supposed to know if I am accepted into grad school in about two weeks and I am very stressed about completing that. I am also stressed about leaving Mom and my brother even two months each summer.

I took her to the E.R. a couple of weeks ago and the doctor said that had she come in a couple of hours later we could have lost her.

The summers-only program is the slow track, so there is less of a chance that she will be around when I complete it, or at least able to take proper care of my brother.

She mentioned yesterday that I may need to put my brother in a group home in order to complete my program.

I have worked in a number of group homes. I have committed to never allow him to go to one.

I may need to pursue a different line of work to support him, so it is good to have ideas.

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