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Old 01-13-2022, 02:40 AM   #1 (permalink)
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What brief message would you send yourself 5 years ago?

Maybe there is a better way of phrasing that.

My ex was still alive, but my dad wasn't. Unless I tried to help her buy a car again I don't have any idea what would keep her alive.

How much is a life worth?

I was seeing clients in the Phoenix area. My Accord blew a tire driving to Show Low and I needed to replace a bunch of stuff, but I did so for $200.

I started having problems with my Civic overheating.

I don't think my grill block helped.

I replaced the radiator fan, but I do think the radiator was bad, so maybe "Remove the grill block and replace the radiator when Chorizo starts overheating?"

I shouldn't have blown the head gasket in 2018 and I might still be driving that car, although she had 222,000 miles in 2018.

With car problems with 2 cars I accepted the full-time job in Page, which lasted 7.5 months.

Maybe if I opened my own agency 5 years ago that would have worked out better than Page.

I turn 43 in a couple of months and I still expect to be single, underemployed, and living with Mom.

I cannot think of anything that would make a significant difference.

If I reenlisted for a year at a time until I finally got accepted into grad school I would still be in--and undoubtedly dozens of pounds lighter.

Would I still be a Specialist?

That would have yielded another couple of thousand a year.

As frustrating as all of this has been, none of this is worth selling out a friend, but what about buying Gamestop for $4 in late July of 2020 and selling for $300+ 1/27/2021?

If I could only put together $1,000 it would become $75,000 in 6 months.

Wayfair went from $39.67 5 years ago to $169.83 on 3/1/2019, but then dropped to $46.30 on 3/13/2020, although it was well over $200 in late July of 2020.

Something must have spiked between 3/1/2019 and 3/13/2020, as well as between 3/13/2020 and late July of 2020, but let's stop here.

If I invested $250 in Wayfair 5 years ago it would become $1,070.27. If I sold and then bought again it would become $5,311.82.

If I put that into Gamestop it would become $475,155.58, but could I fit that in a brief message, and would younger me understand it?

Which leaves only one option: "Always support your car on concrete pier blocks and wood when working on gravel."

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Old 01-13-2022, 03:08 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Buy Bitcoin, then sell it 4.5 years later.
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Old 01-13-2022, 04:00 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Which leaves only one option: "Always support your car on concrete pier blocks and wood when working on gravel."
There's a story that goes "Before enlightenment, chopping wood and carrying water; after enlightenment, chopping wood and carrying water."

Five years ago was what 2015? It's all a blur. The last few days though.... The XFi left rear was going flat over the weekend, so on Monday I aired it up and drove to Big B Tires, but they were closed on Monday's for staffing issues. Tuesday morning an air hose and fitting had gone down some quantum wormhole and I tried two or three places to but a used replacement.

So today I went to Harbor Freight and got 28 pieces for $14, including the ones it turned out I also needed; aired up the tire, and drove back to Big B. It turned out the tire was fine but the old valve stem was leaking so They asked for $20, I showed all I had was $18 and they let me out the door. So so far, drove for 10 months while I paid of the $1000, $200 in tires maybe a set of wiper blades and an $18 valve stem.

I never found a way out of the rat race, and I don't envy people in it today. The trick is to find something everyone wants and provide it. I picked low-cost energy-efficient housing but in 1980 no one wanted it. Now all I can find is people who are willing to talk about it.

Why can't I just let it go?
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Old 01-13-2022, 04:12 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Why can't I just let it go?
Sunk cost fallacy.

You might not have been wrong, except you were. Making something awesome is half the problem, with marketing the other half.

As you correctly stated, you have to find something everyone [would] want and provide it. These days you don't even need to find a majority market, but even an unserved niche.

Perhaps that's how trikes will soldier on.

The way to move on is to continue generating ideas. Let those that don't stick fade to the background, and those that do move forward.
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Old 01-13-2022, 02:55 PM   #5 (permalink)
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When I looked up bitcoin's value Google showed it increasing something like 62x. It increased 10x between the start and when Gamestop was $4, so I started writing that you could put $1,000 in bitcoin, and sell it when it hit $10,000. I was doing this on my phone and I lost everything before I could suggest then putting it in Gamestop and turning it into $750,000.

However, Gamestop grew faster than bitcoin before Bitcoin's next peak and bitcoin was down when Gamestop peaked, so if you sold the latter at $325 you could buy bitcoin at $34,361.50.

Bitcoin then proceeded to hit $61,283.80 on 3/12/2021, while Gamestop dropped, so you could have turned $750,000 into $1,337,626.41.

Asking Google for the best stock of 2021, Nvidia went from $128.56 to $326.76 on 11/30/2021, a 254.2% increase, which would theoretically turn $1.3M into $3,399,835.14.

Aww man! Not even $4 Million?!

I still don't know what message I would send back. "Buy bitcoin, sell on 7/31/2020, and buy GME. Sell on 1/27/2021 and buy bitcoin again. Sell on 3/12/2021 and buy NVDA, selling on 11/30/2021."

Does that count as brief?

It is crazy to think that I could have had a 4,000x return in 5 years if I just knew what to do when--you know, the exact opposite of reality!

I honestly don't know if I could have put together $1,000 back then, but maybe I could have told myself "reenlist for a year at a time and invest all Guard pay," which wouldn't have the financial results that "Do Uber Eats 20 hours a week" would, but far less stress!

I believe that I mentioned earning an extra couple hundred a year in the Guard. GoArmy.com says that pay is $5,940.90, but I always ended up missing sessions, and some clients dropped me when I went off to Super Happy Fun Camp.

If I did Uber Eats for 20 hours a week and made $10 hourly after expenses and destroying my Hondas, that would be $200 a week, and $10k annually, but I would probably eat worse, and exercise less, while if I were in my fourteenth year of service I would weigh 214 pounds or less--at least twice a year.

The last time I checked I was almost 40 pounds heavier than that.
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Old 01-13-2022, 03:24 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I knew about Bitcoin back when it was like 50 cents. If I had put a couple hundred bucks in I'd have like $10M now. The thing is, Bitcoin is worthless and I realized it back then and would rather keep my couple hundred bucks than to not have it. I just got the timing wrong. Zero is coming, just not yet.

While I wouldn't refuse a boatload of cash, I'd rather come by it from producing something of value instead of from everyone else being poorer to make me rich. Another reason why my Lotto excitement would be much more subdued than the typical person. Wouldn't make me happy knowing I'm rich because low income people are fools with their money.

Speaking of which, I saw a lady buying Pepsi at Safeway the other day, and the clerk said the sale allows her to get 2 more for free. She didn't seem to care about the free pop, but allowed the clerk to leave the checkstand to get 2 more for her anyway. Then I saw her paying with food stamps. That's why she didn't care, because it was free anyhow, and that's why she's buying name brand instead of the cheaper knock-off brand. Then I saw her plugging money into the scratch off machine. I'm sure if she won all of her financial problems would be permanently solved
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Old 01-13-2022, 03:58 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
I never found a way out of the rat race, and I don't envy people in it today. The trick is to find something everyone wants and provide it...

Alternative way out of the rat race:
  1. Live below means
  2. Start investing early
  3. Pick basic low cost mutual funds
  4. Don't freak out and sell when the market drops
  5. Wait for compounding interest to work its magic
  6. Retire
That was the plan my wife and I zeroed in at at 25. The original goal was retire at 40. We missed it by a few years but unless the economy tanks in the next few years we will retire at 45.
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Old 01-13-2022, 04:08 PM   #8 (permalink)
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"Money doesn't buy happiness, but it is a lot more comfortable to cry in a Mercedes than on a bicycle"--John Wayne, allegedly.

This is like Homer's brain explaining to him that money can be exchanged for goods and services.

I could help far more people with almost $4M than [checks wallet] lint.
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Old 01-13-2022, 04:21 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Other people's problems are rarely helped with money.

I might seriously target retirement at 50. My youngest (so far) would be 10.

BTW- I don't want to retire and do nothing, but instead have the freedom to work on what I want. Start a business or something.
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Old 01-13-2022, 04:22 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Want to build tiny houses?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH
Alternative way out of the rat race:
Live below means
I had a wife that was working against me rather than with me, and I live below my means today.

If I could send a message back to 1980 it would be don't get involved with exotic dancers.

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