Electric car efficiencies

[Ladogaboy]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

I wonder if anyone will consider the possibility of reducing demand someday?

I don't know if you're getting at what I was hoping Neil would address, but these are my sentiments exactly. In short, there will be an environmental impact with any sort of energy production, and ultimately, we as humans need to understand that we are SHARING this planet. Wind turbines need to share with birds. Solar panels need to share with plant life. Wave generators need to share with coastal animals. The list goes on. Ain't nothin' in this life for free.

At some point, humans need to stop and ask, "Are there too damned many of us?"

[redpoint5]

It seems an EV makes the most sense for multi-car families. The EV can be used for everyday short trips, and the conventional vehicle for the road-trips or other long drives. I'm a single guy that needs 1 car to do it all, so EV is out.

This leads me to my next point, EVs are uncool. Even if they make economic sense, they must also make "emotional" sense for the majority of people to purchase them. Men purchase cars that are fun to drive and project a certain image to women. Women purchase the color and model they will look cute in. I don't know too many women that are attracted a mans sensible decisions. They are attracted to fun guys, not rationality. *Obviously a generalization.

EVs don't have just economic hurdles to overcome, but also image problems. They have to appeal to more than just wealthy older couples and environmental zealots before the other 90% will purchase them.

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

I wonder if anyone will consider the possibility of reducing demand someday?

We all will, when supply becomes expensive. Consumption is a function of relative cost, nothing more, nothing less.

[NeilBlanchard]

Of course we need to conserve -- we are throwing away everything in a virtual instant. Planned obsolescence is the worst thing that we humans have come up with -- I think this was Alfred P. Sloan at GM who got us going down this path; for cars anyway.

A growth economy is a fantasy turned into a nightmare. Even with a fixed population, an economy based on growth was never possible. I said as much several times so far on this thread alone. Oil is finite. Coal is finite. Gas is finite. Uranium is finite. We have to keep living on the same water and the same minerals.

There is a concept called a Steady State Economy. Look it up. It means that we have to consume less than the maximum that the earth can sustain. It means that we have to stop turning oil into plastic, and we have to stop using hormones and antibiotics on our animals, and we have to farm the way that we have for the 10,000 years before chemical fertilizers and pesticides were invented -- and that is to work within the cycle of life. We will improve the soil, instead of mining it. We will have cleaner water and cleaner air and we cannot have any long lasting effects on any other life form -- since we all are the results of all the life that came before us, and all life in the future will have to live within the world we are making.

Of course we share this earth with all other life. Which do you think has a longer lasting impact: an array of buoys bobbing on the waves or a smokestack? What about 1,000 wind turbines compared to mountaintop removal? And if carbon dioxide was virtually locked on a plateau of ~270ppm for 650,000 years and all life had evolved to fit in that framework -- and then in ~150 years we have caused the level of carbon dioxide to shoot up to over 390ppm and we are already seeing a myriad affects from this -- that it was okay for us to just burn through oil as quickly as we could? Even just from the standpoint of what will our progeny do without oil; let alone the climate chaos we have unleashed -- we simply have to change our ways, as quickly as possible.

By definition, renewable energy is sustainable. We'll have to fine tune it as we go. And yes, we certainly have to figure out how to make large items last a lifetime, and be fully repairable, and then they must disappear back into the earth; to be reused as life's building blocks.

We are the plastic people. No plastic should be thrown out. It is entering the food chain, along with all the hormones, etc. Did you know that estrogen is the same for all vertebrates? We've got male small mouth bass laying eggs, folks.

There is no planet 'B'.

[NeilBlanchard]

I think electric cars are the coolest thing since the Schlörwagen.



EV's that can drive 400-500 miles on a single charge are possible right now. Plugin serial hybrids are also possible right here, right now.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Old Mechanic

If it seems way off then present your own calculations with linked information to support your facts.

US electrical consumption (2009): 3.471e12 KWh United States Electricity - consumption - Economy

Current PV price (approx): $1/KW Darwin Effect Cuts Photovoltaic Prices, Abound Solar Says - Bloomberg

Hours generation per year, at 8 hours per day: 2920
Cost of PV panels to generate US electrical consumption: $1.19 trillion.

US GDP (2009): $14.119 trillion Gross national product - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So the US could (theoretically) replace its entire electrical generation in a single year for less than 12% of its GDP. Or in a decade for 1% of GDP per year. And note that PV panel prices keep dropping. At the link, you'll see that one company claims a current production cost of $0.75/Watt.

Of course there are installation costs on top, and for a pure solar system additional cost for storage, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility - especially if the panels are installed on existing roofs, parking lots, and other already built areas.

Then too, we would not want a pure solar power grid. Consider that the US currently gets ~20% of its electricty from nuclear power. Those plants were built over a 40 year period, at a cost which does not seem to have had a measureable effect on the economy. It should therefore be possible to build a mere four times as many in a couple of decades for only a fraction of GDP.

Also understand the present employment in industries you will render obsolete and what your plan is to do for those who would now join the unemployment lines waiting for more handouts.

Why do we need a plan, any more than we needed a plan for buggy whip makers, people who made record players, 8-track tape players, or any of the thousands of other products that have become obsolete in the last century? How about the tens of thousands of jobs made obsolete by on-line bill-paying? Old industries adapt or die: their employees likewise need to adapt.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

This leads me to my next point, EVs are uncool.

Really? Tesla.

[user removed]

This is a projection, an educated guess. I don't like unsubstantiated claims but here goes anyway.

May 15th 2013, a national car manufacturer offers a base model car for $13k. It has a hydraulic launch assist rear axle in an otherwise conventional FWD vehicle architecture. The hydraulic launch assist recovers deceleration energy and reapplies it for acceleration after the car stops. it also offers constant speed on-off operation of the engine at most highway speeds which maximises the engines efficiency. Integral P&G without driver inputs necessary, totally automated, with start stop to eliminate idling.

EPA is 50 city and 45 highway.

August 25th 2015, a full hydraulic system is now offered with a downsized conventional engine that is optimized for the application, for the same price due to 20% lower parts content per vehicle. Now it is all wheel drive with capacitive regeneration at all wheels with 85% efficiency. Engine is downsized and throttle less, with hydraulic activated start stop capability. same price as previous model with no "break even point" that requires more money up front in hopes of a return many years later.

EPA
75 city
70 highway

November 15th 2017, the third version is a totally integrated design based on the potential power train efficiency and operation. Engine is now a free piston direct hydraulic generator operating at 60% efficiency with a transonic injection system using super critical fuel, a mixture of diesel and gasoline that produces no exhaust emissions requiring after treatment. CO2 emissions are 90% below current levels. Aerodynamics and low rolling resistance tires, optimized alignment and high strength steels allow for a total vehicle weight under 2500 pounds.

EPA
city 120 MPG
highway 90 MPG at a constant 70 MPH. Significantly lower at lower average speeds.

The third model also offers the option of interchangeable power units, as well as battery modules than can easily be removed for recharging in your apartment, or storage to render the vehicle inoperable if so desired. The purchaser now has the option to use electric power, and the option to only use the number of modules that he or she needs to do their daily commute, no one size fits all power storage system. The purchaser can choose either liquid fuel power modules or all electric power modules. Both modules only require the disconnection of two quick release couplings and a single electrical connection for removal. Mounting is pin in receptacle quick disconnect requiring no special tools for removal or installation.
Price for the vehicle with IC drive option $20k
Electric drive option add $8k.
Electric only $23k mostly due to battery costs.

By year 2025 battery technology allows for ranges close to Neils prediction, long enough for highway trips of virtually unlimited distance with exchange points for the battery modules. Stop insert your credit card and replace your dead ones with fully charged modules that use solar energy for recharging.

IC is dead at this point. 100 years later the carbon content of the atmosphere has dropped by 25% and it continues to drop as more efficient technology make oil production and distribution no longer cost effective. The carbon content of the atmosphere reaches pre industrial age levels in the year 2150. The protesters are predicting that the amount of solar energy we are preventing from warming the earth directly will cause global cooling and the death of vegetation due to insufficient carbon levels in the atmosphere.

regards
Mech

[TheEnemy]

Originally Posted by Ryland

I have no idea how long they will last under ideal conditions, it might be 100 years or it might 1,000 years, it's impossible to really say, but what we can say is that in real world testing PV panels have been in use without fail for 60+ years and that with most PV panels after 20 years you still have 5 years left on the warranty! (25 year warranty is industry standard) and I have personally seen PV panels that are 25+ years old that are still putting out over the rated output and that non of them that were bought at the same time have failed, at the time those panels only had a 15 year warranty and I'm sure I could find some that are older then that, but 25 years ago is when PV panels started to become affordable and easy to get and based off of the inspection of those panels that are 25+ years old, I see no reason that they will not last another 25 or even 50 years or more! they are not degrading and the new panels that are out there are being made with higher quality materials and in factories that have better control over their manufacturing environment.
But this thread is about EV's not PV's of course they are related and when you look at the long term cost you have to ask your self what is the payback on burning gasoline, coal or other fossil fuels, They are a net loss with a cost that keeps going up and you have little choice about where your gasoline comes from but you have a wide range of choices over where your electricity comes from, you can even make your own electricity easier then you can make your own gasoline.

That is discounting the fact that things happen, hail, accidents etc...

As it is I am having a hard enough time convincing my wife to let me put some up when the current payback for our area is about 18 years. That is with us living in a nearly optimal location. I am however looking at other methods of getting them piecewise for less.

We use a lot of electricity in my house, (still reducing gradually) and we tend to not drive the average milleage. Switching to electric cars would double our electricity usage. Now yes that would be better for the environment, but if even a single digit percentage in my community switched over to electricric cars we would overload our local grid, and our local electric coop doesn't have the money to upgrade.

I do admit that we will be switching to electic cars and a large percentage of our power will come from renewable sources.

Time for some math to understand the magnitude of the problem.

In 2006 the US consumed 1,352,080,623,840 kwh of electricity
A 5kw pv system costs about $20,000 and will produce approx 11000kwh of electricity per year at an average of 6 hours per daythat comes out to about $2458328406981 thats $2.4 trillion just for current demand. Assuming that electric cars only double the power and using distributed generation (such as rooftop generation) Thats still $4.8T or about 1/3 of the total yearly US GDP. That doesn't include switching all of the cars over or installing charging equipment or any of the other little details that will have to be taken care of.

[TheEnemy]

James: can you find me panels at $1/w let alone $1 kw everytime I look for a system (inverter wiring instalation) I have a hard time even getting down to $20,000 for a 5kw system, that comes out to $4 per watt.

[user removed]

James I'll take a 1000 KW array for $1000. I have the cash in hand and can install it myself. Just tell me where to go to get the panels.

That should cover my average 1200 KW per month consumption, right.

regards
Mech