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Old 03-11-2020, 12:35 PM   #1 (permalink)
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2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime Plug-in Hybrid

Most people know that the Tesla Model 3 is the top selling plug-in vehicle in the US, but many probably don't know that the Prius Prime is #2. Will the upcoming 2021 RAV4 Prime take that spot when it goes on sale this summer?

Specs:
  • 40 miles EV range
  • 40 MPG
  • 300 horsepower
  • AWD
  • 0-60 in 5.8 seconds (2nd fastest Toyota)
  • Qualifies for full $7,500 federal tax credit due to the 16 kWh battery
  • 90 MPGe efficiency rating

As a side topic, Alex argues that since battery supply is constrained worldwide, the most effective way to reduce fuel consumption isn't to build a few all electric vehicles with long range, but instead to spread that same battery capacity among many plug-in vehicles. A 250 mile range BEV is mostly wasting that battery capacity for most trips. If instead that same battery were installed in 5 plug-in vehicles with a 50 mile range, the overall number of EV miles driven would be increased, which would offset a lot more fuel consumption than the single BEV.

Plug-in hybrids seems the most logical transition technology. It isn't the best at any 1 thing, but is very good at everything. It's relatively cheap compared to a BEV, it's fuel efficient compared to an ICE, it's more powerful, eliminates range anxiety, and can qualify for the full federal tax credit which may offset the initial higher cost entirely.


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Old 03-11-2020, 10:50 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Most people know that the Tesla Model 3 is the top selling plug-in vehicle in the US, but many probably don't know that the Prius Prime is #2. Will the upcoming 2021 RAV4 Prime take that spot when it goes on sale this summer?
Without question. Heck, I'm even tempted to buy one when it goes on sale, and I don't have a convenient place to plug in.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:35 AM   #3 (permalink)
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PHEVs don't really require a Level 2 charger at home. Because the battery capacity is smaller you can get a full charge overnight with just the regular 120VAC charger plug they give you when you buy the car.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:08 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Very true, and another strong selling point for PHEVs to be more popular with the broader consumer base.

L2 tends to be more efficient though, because it cuts the amount of time the circuits and fans and pumps that run while charging are on. In the Prius, charge efficiency was something like 75% on L1, and something like 89% on L2.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:34 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Given my personal level of (dis)organization, a nearly 9 hour daily charge time on L1 would be a burden.
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Old 03-25-2020, 10:07 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S Keith View Post
Given my personal level of (dis)organization, a nearly 9 hour daily charge time on L1 would be a burden.
They're not for everyone. But, people can still get to work (or wherever) if they forget to charge.

I'm a proponent of PHEVs. 20 miles gets me to work, where I might be able to charge for free. 40 miles round trip covers 99% of my driving.
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Old 03-25-2020, 02:19 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I wonder if it will really be low $30k? Isn't the normal Rav4 hybrid $30k? If it was say $32 before any credits then that would be a good deal. Sadly I bet it's $40k base.
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Old 03-25-2020, 02:49 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hersbird View Post
I wonder if it will really be low $30k? Isn't the normal Rav4 hybrid $30k? If it was say $32 before any credits then that would be a good deal. Sadly I bet it's $40k base.
I'm showing $28k-$37k for the hybrid RAV4. My guess is a base price around $36k, but not sure how many options will be available. Usually plug-ins start at a higher trim level than the non-plugin. Maybe the top end will be $42k?

A base of $36k puts the cost after federal tax credit at around $29k. Some markets like OR and CA have another $2,500 incentive, so that can put it down to $26k, or lower cost than the base hybrid.

I'm telling you, these will sell like hotcakes. People that can't even plug in will buy one if they have the tax liability to take advantage of it.

As an aside, my rough estimation is the additional battery capacity will cost Toyota $2,300 more than the hybrid battery.
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Old 03-30-2020, 09:34 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Toyota's European plants to remain closed until April 20

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...until-april-20

Quote:
With the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, Toyota had suspended production from mid-March in France, Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey and Portugal.

Its Russian factory will be closed from March 30 to April 3, the automaker said.

Toyota has already halted production in all of North America.
>
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Old 04-01-2020, 01:30 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Alex

Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Most people know that the Tesla Model 3 is the top selling plug-in vehicle in the US, but many probably don't know that the Prius Prime is #2. Will the upcoming 2021 RAV4 Prime take that spot when it goes on sale this summer?

Specs:
  • 40 miles EV range
  • 40 MPG
  • 300 horsepower
  • AWD
  • 0-60 in 5.8 seconds (2nd fastest Toyota)
  • Qualifies for full $7,500 federal tax credit due to the 16 kWh battery
  • 90 MPGe efficiency rating

As a side topic, Alex argues that since battery supply is constrained worldwide, the most effective way to reduce fuel consumption isn't to build a few all electric vehicles with long range, but instead to spread that same battery capacity among many plug-in vehicles. A 250 mile range BEV is mostly wasting that battery capacity for most trips. If instead that same battery were installed in 5 plug-in vehicles with a 50 mile range, the overall number of EV miles driven would be increased, which would offset a lot more fuel consumption than the single BEV.

Plug-in hybrids seems the most logical transition technology. It isn't the best at any 1 thing, but is very good at everything. It's relatively cheap compared to a BEV, it's fuel efficient compared to an ICE, it's more powerful, eliminates range anxiety, and can qualify for the full federal tax credit which may offset the initial higher cost entirely.

I wonder if Alex considers four and five-passenger cars a waste of resources,and the materials used to make them,better spread across the fabrication of one-passenger vehicles,which appear to represent the default capacity of the extant vehicle population.That would really allow for significant battery penetration.

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