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Old 02-11-2016, 11:43 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Leave some in the ground. The're not making any more. Save it for later. They are going to need it. When will fossil fuel become a world heritage commodity that is not owned by any one corporation?

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Old 02-11-2016, 11:52 AM   #12 (permalink)
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I read that when they do hit capacity, prices will temporarily crash.

Do you think that anyone living in that small town where gas hit fifty cents a gallon went out and bought an SUV only to have prices quickly multiply?

"Spending is good for the economy."
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Old 02-11-2016, 09:39 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Sure glad I ride bicycles. I did actually put a few drops of oil on the chain today. Will that help empty the containers?

JJ
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Old 02-11-2016, 10:16 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Not if it is whale oil!
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Old 02-12-2016, 12:13 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redneck View Post
.

"Peak oil" my ass...

The world is awash in oil.

It has been and will be for the foreseeable future...


However, that doesn't mean it shouldn't be conserved.

>
Saying the world is awash in oil is like saying there's no global warming every time there is a day with below average temps.

A very, very short-term blip or aberration vs the big picture.
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:17 AM   #16 (permalink)
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That's my opinion. Based on what I see, hear and read.

>
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Old 02-12-2016, 12:29 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redneck View Post
.

That's my opinion. Based on what I see, hear and read.

>
You're not reading much about the oil market, then. Inelastic supply during the mega-pricey oil years (2006-2008 precrash and 2011 - 2013 post) point to capacity constraints for Middle Eastern oil. Some of Saudi's smaller well s have already run dry. Certain OPEC members are already on the downswing of their production curve. And older "shale" wells in the US started seeing big drops in production after just two years.

Nothing is forever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
We have another 100 years left. If we don't use this energy wealth to transition to a clean economy before we pass peak civilization will....?
.
.

.
.
It's heartening to see that even the "LOLWUT? Emissions?!? CHILLAX!!!" Chinese government is taking pollution and energy independence seriously enough to enact widespread programs to transition from fossil fuels (coal and oil) to renewable energy and EVs. I doubt they can kick the habit completely, but they're investing in non-fossil power at a breakneck pace.

-

I would have hoped that we could use that tremendous energy wealth for something useful, like fusion, or setting up permanent orbital solar arrays, or maybe starting an asteroid mining and power empire... instead, we're wasting it on gridlock traffic, iPhones and internet pornography.

-

Not that I'm complaining about the internet...
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Old 02-12-2016, 12:52 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I think the more sophisticated macroeconomic analysis of peak oil suggests that around the peak, or just after the peak in production, prices will get very volatile.

Volatile doesn't just mean higher and faster, it means sudden jumps up AND down as the market goes all herky jerky on both sides of the supply/demand equation.

I am personally a soft landing peak oil person. Alternatives and conservation smooth out the bumps and we transition to a lot more renewables in a fairly peaceful process.

So, two years from now, don't come crying to me and be all surprised when fuel prices shoot up again.

I think there is also some international politics and economic sabotage going on. The Saudies could see that with russian production heading to all time highs, and non-conventional (shale) oil production in the US and Canada rising to all time highs, it was going to hurt their bottom line. They also could not control russia and north america.

So they let the prices drift high enough that russia and the US invest a bunch of money in producing oil that makes no economic sense unless the price is over $65 or $70 a barrel.

Once all those companies are commited, the Saudies flood the market and laugh as the russians and americans cry while they lose piles of money and see their economy crash.

That will lead to a much slower build up of non-conventional oil production the next go-round. And Saudi laughs all the way to the bank.
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Old 02-12-2016, 01:49 PM   #19 (permalink)
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US oil production vs. active oil rigs

This is an interesting chart. It shows the dramatic increase in U.S. shale oil production (rig count) and following that, the rapid decline in rig count once oil prices crashed due to oversupply.

Tough times since late 2014 for anyone making a living in the oil industry. (I personally know people in my little central Canadian city who have lost jobs as a result -- suppliers of equipment to Alberta and the U.S.)

The big question is: what is the time delay between the drop in rigs and the inevitable drop in production?


(From: Oil Jumps As US Rig Count Plunges Most Since April | Zero Hedge)

It seems to be about a 1.5 year lag on the way up.

Once extraction of "expensive oil" starts to fall (not just in the U.S., but in every country that produces expensive oil) and stockpiles begin to be drawn down, prices will shoot up again.

Which ties to solarguy's question: what is the time delay between prices going back up and drilling re-commencing?

Boom & bust, baby.
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Old 02-12-2016, 01:50 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redneck View Post
.

That's my opinion. Based on what I see, hear and read.

>
Well it IS awash in EXTRACTED oil for the next several MONTHS.

After that I'm betting against you.

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