The Demise of the Car?

[suspectnumber961]

The Demise of the Car | Peak Prosperity

But the story of India’s inadequate infrastructure is only one part of the difficult, global transition away from liquid fossil fuels. Over the past decade, the majority of new energy demand has been met not through global oil, but through growth in electrical power.

Frankly, this should be no surprise. After all, global production of oil started to flatten more than seven years ago, in 2005. And the developing world, which garners headlines for its increased demand for oil, is running mainly on coal-fired electrical power. There is no question that the non-OECD countries are leading the way as liquid-based transport – automobiles and airlines – have entered longterm decline.

Why, therefore, do policy makers in both the developing and developed world continue to invest in automobile infrastructure?

...

Young People Aren't Buying Cars Because They're Buying Smart Phones Instead

Youth culture was once car culture. Teens cruised their Thunderbirds to the local drive-in, Springsteen fantasized about racing down Thunder Road, and Ferris Bueller staged a jailbreak from the 'burbs in a red Ferrari. Cars were Friday night. Cars were Hollywood. Yet these days, they can't even compete with an iPhone - or so car makers, and the people who analyze them for a living, seem to fear. As Bloomberg reported this morning, many in the auto industry "are concerned that financially pressed young people who connect online instead of in person could hold down peak demand by 2 million units each year." In other words, Generation Y may be happy to give up their wheels as long as they have the web. And in the long term, that could mean Americans will buy just 15 million cars and trucks each year, instead of around 17 million.

If future car sales in the US will be limited by the loss of 2 million purchases just from young people alone, then the US can hardly expect to return to even 15 million car and truck sales per year. US sales have only recovered to 14 million. (And that looks very much like the peak for the reflationary 2009-2012 period)

Indeed, the migration from suburbs back to the cities, the resurrection of rail, and the fact that oil will never be cheap again puts economies – and culture – on a newly defined path to other forms of transport and other ways of working.

[drmiller100]

I think there are several things in play. Today, people EXPECT cars to go 200,000 miles. In my youth, cars were totally junk at 100,000 miles.

I work on Hondas daily which have 300,000 plus, yet GM, Ford, and Chrysler cars are junk at 150,000 miles (yes the trucks go much further - ponder that for just a second.....).

Further, a 20 year old Honda looks substantially the same as a brand new Honda, and is fundamentally just as comfortable. If you compare a 1965 average car to a 1985 car, there was a HUGE difference in comfort for the passengers. Electric windows, standard AC, good ride, precise steering are just a few improvements.

Add it all up, and today's youth is happy enough to have an old beater shared among 3 or 4 friends.

[JRMichler]

My 16 year old daughter does not even want a driver's license. Yet. But she has the smartphone.

[Sven7]

It's not the demise of the car as a transportation device that I fear, but it is sad to imagine that people in the future may not know the adrenaline rush that is motor racing simply because they don't have a car to autocross or take to the track. I'm on the internet enough to know what it has to offer. It can be really fun at times but it can not compete with auto racing for pure enjoyment. Sure, let us find a different solution for everyday transport, but don't take the good part away from us!

[suspectnumber961]

I've always enjoyed driving and when I could get away with it...driving fast...or at least "crisply".

Now I just see racers a fuel wasters. Enjoy it while you can afford or find the fuel?

Originally Posted by Sven7

It's not the demise of the car as a transportation device that I fear, but it is sad to imagine that people in the future may not know the adrenaline rush that is motor racing simply because they don't have a car to autocross or take to the track. I'm on the internet enough to know what it has to offer. It can be really fun at times but it can not compete with auto racing for pure enjoyment. Sure, let us find a different solution for everyday transport, but don't take the good part away from us!

[suspectnumber961]

Originally Posted by suspectnumber961

As Bloomberg reported this morning, many in the auto industry "are concerned that financially pressed young people who connect online instead of in person could hold down peak demand by 2 million units each year."

2 million sales per yr of a light-weight fuel efficient and inexpensive car lost?

China or India will step up to the plate?

[stillsearching]

Originally Posted by suspectnumber961

I've always enjoyed driving and when I could get away with it...driving fast...or at least "crisply".

Now I just see racers a fuel wasters. Enjoy it while you can afford or find the fuel?

Nearly everything fun to do wastes something, at least if you consider enjoyment or pleasure itself to not be worth expending resources on. That being said some hobbies (like yacht racing) tend to be harder than others (go karts). And even if there were arguments about nonrenewable fuels or something, would SVO powered racing make it okay?

One reason for the demise of car culture is overzealous city boards making everything fun illegal. In my town if the same car passes the same strip of land 3 times within 2 hours between friday and sunday you are fined $500 for "cruising" which they made illegal. If you drive 61mph in a 60mph zone the cops fine you for speeding, because your car is red and you are young. If you accidentally chirp the tires because they are thin low traction low rolling resistance tires on your metro and you let the clutch out a little too fast they hit you for demonstrative driving. Put neon under your car and they say it's a distraction to other drivers. Whatever car enthusiasm most people have either deteriorates a few pointless revenue-generating tickets later or turns into the cat and mouse underground racing scene if they get PO'ed.

[Xist]

Originally Posted by stillsearching

In my town if the same car passes the same strip of land 3 times within 2 hours between friday and sunday you are fined $500 for "cruising" which they made illegal. [...] If you accidentally chirp the tires because they are thin low traction low rolling resistance tires on your metro and you let the clutch out a little too fast they hit you for demonstrative driving.

Downtown Tempe is just north of Arizona State University and driving through there is almost always difficult, but they did make "cruising" illegal, apparently it was that much of a problem.

My first car was a Honda Prelude and when I first got behind the wheel I peeled out.

I kind of liked it.

I actually had difficulty not squealing my tires. I actually was pulled over, but after much waiting, the police officer said that he received a call, so he let me go. I thought "Oh, so someone actually committed a crime?!"

I later found out that I could have been hit with "Exhibition of Speed," worth all eight points that one can receive before losing their license, while you might only receive one point for speeding.

I did not understand that.

I would not even know how to peel out my Forester, though!

[thomason2wheels]

Pretty expensive fun in the long run if you have to rely on the car for day to day transportation. I used to autocross my street car for many years....an expensive habit. Wish i had all the money i threw away racing. It was fun while it lasted.

[Ryland]

[QUOTE=Sven7;323821but it is sad to imagine that people in the future may not know the adrenaline rush that is motor racing simply because they don't have a car to autocross or take to the track. [/QUOTE]

I think SUV's are doing more to take that away then anything else but that adrenaline rush is being replaced with the rush that you get from ridding a bicycle, of course some people still want to race vehicles and the new vehicle of choice seems to be pickup trucks... it's loud, annoying and is more likely to kill the driver so I see it as a self regulating "hobby" because the number of people who take their vehicles to the track are really small, most people never set foot on a race track and instead use the city streets and back roads.

In reading about electric cars a lot of people seem to be pushing for electric cars being so cheap that everyone can have one and to me the decline in car ownership is a good thing.