Earth's Albedo-Flip greenhouse amplification

[aerohead]

https://www.eenews.net/articles/eart...make-it-worse/

[freebeard]

From TFA:

Zelinka agreed that the recent dimming trend may be mainly due to the shift in the PDO. It’s a well-documented climate cycle, and scientists are confident that it’s a major driver of the recent decline in low-level clouds.

But in the coming decades, human-caused climate change is likely to become the bigger influence.

When the cycle cycles, we'll be helping rather than hurting.

[aerohead]

When the clouds come back, and refection increases, we will have continued increasing GHGs, which will trap more of the more feeble energy, working to cancel the gain from the more beneficial albedo.

[freebeard]

www.nature.com: Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia

Abstract
Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, [blah, blah], indicating overestimates of 6.0–14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4–11.6% and −2.1–13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5–40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.
____

Recently, an innovative technique called the emergent constraint has been developed to constrain uncertainty across climate model ensemble projections24,25,26,27,28. The uncertainty in model simulations can be constrained by observations to obtain more accurate projections of future climate change29 by developing physically explainable empirical relationships between the simulated current and future climate.

More snow, less sea level rise.

[oil pan 4]

CMIP6 for when you realize the suns output does change more than 0.4%.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

www.nature.com: Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia


More snow, less sea level rise.

So the focus is 'Asia.'
'Snow' in Antarctica is blown off the continent by foehn winds with little opportunity to accumulate.
The freeze line in Antarctica is moving southwards, melting ice which has no chance of rebuilding.
The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere.
The freeze line is moving higher and higher in the mountains. At some point it will be 'higher' than the mountains.
You saw Yellowstone wash away recently. Mountain snow pack melted prematurely due to rising temperatures.
The Sierra Nevada can't catch a break.
I'm not seeing evidence for more snow. Maybe extremely local or regional.

[Piotrsko]

Of course the focus is there. If they dry out and get hungry game over.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by Piotrsko

Of course the focus is there. If they dry out and get hungry game over.

Nobody knows the timescale for contemporary events, but according to those who study such things, all civilizations which rely on irrigation fail.
It's impossible for the ice caps in the Himalaya to survive. Ergo, no more rivers.
The Three-Gorges Dam will one day be a curiosity. Like Hoover Dam. The Maya. The Anasazi.

[freebeard]

<< If West Taiwan gets uppity, Three Gorges will be a smoking crater >>

Nobody knows the timescale for contemporary events, but according to those who study such things, all civilizations which rely on irrigation fail.

Can you provide an example of a civiliztion that does not rely on irrigation?

Nobody knows the timescale for [forward-looking climate] events,

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

<< If West Taiwan gets uppity, Three Gorges will be a smoking crater >>


Can you provide an example of a civiliztion that does not rely on irrigation?

Nobody knows the timescale for [forward-looking climate] events,

It's not reported by these people. Only those already extinct.
Events within a human lifespan would probably be a better metric than 'contemporary.'
Although some climatologists are pretty amazed at the non-linear amplifications taking place.
We're watching Putin. Beijing is watching us. How we behave, I suppose will impact how China behaves.
Craters are an option. A bad day.