Earth's Albedo-Flip greenhouse amplification

[aerohead]

1) The pure white powder snow phase of water has the highest reflective index ( albedo) as any natural surface. For any solar radiation falling on it, it reflects about 82.5% back to space, and absorbs 17.5%.
2) Global warming is such that, temperatures even at 18,600-feet elevation are warm enough to melt powder snow.
3) When the snow melts, and then re-freezes at night, it becomes an ice phase of water, with a reflective index of only 73%, absorbing 54.28% more energy.
This difference in heat absorption is equivalent to reducing Earth's orbital distance from the Sun to, 74,841,296-miles. 18.1-million miles closer to the Sun.
4) When all the ice melts, leaving exposed rock, the reflective index falls to around 62.5%, absorbing 37.5% of solar energy. The difference in absorbed solar radiation is equivalent to further reducing Earth's orbit to 63,504,954-miles, which places Earth 'inside' the orbit of Venus. 29,455,045-miles closer to the Sun.
This isn't a 'future' scenario. This is happening right now. This is what Andrew Glickson referred to as our greatest threat, as this is exactly what drove some of the greatest past mass-extinction events in Earth's geological record.
5) There's around 4300- billion tons of Methane stored in the permafrost and ocean floor clathrates.
6) Methane is a greenhouse gas which is 27-times more powerful than carbon-dioxide.
7) Releasing 4300-gigatons of methane is equivalent to releasing 116,100-gigatons of carbon dioxide.
8) 11,610,000,000,000-pound of carbon-dioxide.
9) 11.6-trillion pounds of carbon dioxide.
10) Earth will heat more and faster than ever in Earth's geologic record.
11) It can't be engineered for.
12) All the wealth on Earth wouldn't scratch the surface of the cost.
So, that's what's unfolding.
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SOURCE OF DATA:
Book, 'THIN ICE,' PhD Mark Bowen, Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, copyright, 2005.
Data provided by: Keith Mountain, radiation balance specialist, University of Oregon, radiometer measurements, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, ice-core drilling expedition, 1980.
* Only tropical ice cap
* 18,000-feet elevation
* 1222-1158 Watt/square-meter insolation
* 902-913 Watt/square-meter reflected radiation
* 198-187 Watt/square-meter absorbed radiation
* 90%-95% solar radiation transmitted to surface
* Pure powder snow reflectivity 90%-82%
* Ice reflectivity 73%
* Exposed rock reflectivity 62.5% reflectivity ( CRC Manual average )
* Solar constant maximum @ Quelccaya = 1357.7 Watt/square-meter, hourly in situ measurements
* Solar constant = 1353 Watt/ square-meter ( Solar Energy Applications Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
* Average distance: Earth-to-Sun, 149,935,483.9-kilometers
* Steller flux @ 'surface': 30,416,318,550,000,000,000- Watt/square-meter ( calculated )
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'Ice' albedo solar radiation absorption-equivalency occurs at 74,841,303-miles from Sun.
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'Exposed-rock albedo radiation absorption-equivalency occurs at 63,503,861-miles from Sun.
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I performed a proof, working from Earth to Sun, advancing @ half-distance steps, from inside Venus' orbital distance, to within 1-Km of Sun.
Given the range of data given by Keith Mountain, I'm satisfied with my original two orbital distance-equivalencies for ice and rock.
The whole exercise is about an equivalent human-created astronomical forcing, caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which is already in play, and mimics past forcing and amplifications, leading to mass extinction events

[freebeard]

Kiss your Astaroth goodbye?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by aerohead

1) The pure white powder snow phase of water has the highest reflective index ( albedo) as any natural surface. For any solar radiation falling on it, it reflects about 82.5% back to space, and absorbs 17.5%.
2) Global warming is such that, temperatures even at 18,600-feet elevation are warm enough to melt powder snow.
3) When the snow melts, and then re-freezes at night, it becomes an ice phase of water, with a reflective index of only 73%, absorbing 54.28% more energy.
This difference in heat absorption is equivalent to reducing Earth's orbital distance from the Sun to, 74,841,296-miles. 18.1-million miles closer to the Sun.
4) When all the ice melts, leaving exposed rock, the reflective index falls to around 62.5%, absorbing 37.5% of solar energy. The difference in absorbed solar radiation is equivalent to further reducing Earth's orbit to 63,504,954-miles, which places Earth 'inside' the orbit of Venus. 29,455,045-miles closer to the Sun.
This isn't a 'future' scenario. This is happening right now. This is what Andrew Glickson referred to as our greatest threat, as this is exactly what drove some of the greatest past mass-extinction events in Earth's geological record.
5) There's around 4300- billion tons of Methane stored in the permafrost and ocean floor clathrates.
6) Methane is a greenhouse gas which is 27-times more powerful than carbon-dioxide.
7) Releasing 4300-gigatons of methane is equivalent to releasing 116,100-gigatons of carbon dioxide.
8) 11,610,000,000,000-pound of carbon-dioxide.
9) 11.6-trillion pounds of carbon dioxide.
10) Earth will heat more and faster than ever in Earth's geologic record.
11) It can't be engineered for.
12) All the wealth on Earth wouldn't scratch the surface of the cost.
So, that's what's unfolding.

I'm going to need sources for #3 and #4 because they don't seem reasonable from a quick math check. Snow turning into ice and being less reflective is equivalent to moving the earth 19% closer to the sun? Keep in mind this doesn't mean the earth would receive 19% more of the sun's rays, but much more than that because the energy from the sun falls away non-linearly with distance (square of the distance).

Venus receives twice the sunlight as Earth. I find it highly improbable that simply melting all snow away would increase temperature as if there was twice the amount of sunlight.

Snow only covers 12% of Earth's surface and mostly at the poles (where sunlight hardly hits anyhow), so this small thing isn't likely to have the affect claimed here.

Smells like BS, but I appreciate numbers so that we can evaluate the veracity.

*As an aside, these absurd, intentionally deceptive, apocalyptic claims are exactly why people not only avoid joining the Green Religion, but are actively antagonistic against it. If these false prophets piped down, the Green Religion might actually appeal to a broader audience, or at least not be ridiculed so much.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I'm going to need sources for #3 and #4 because they don't seem reasonable from a quick math check. Snow turning into ice and being less reflective is equivalent to moving the earth 19% closer to the sun? Keep in mind this doesn't mean the earth would receive 19% more of the sun's rays, but much more than that because the energy from the sun falls away non-linearly with distance (square of the distance).

Venus receives twice the sunlight as Earth. I find it highly improbable that simply melting all snow away would increase temperature as if there was twice the amount of sunlight.

Snow only covers 12% of Earth's surface and mostly at the poles (where sunlight hardly hits anyhow), so this small thing isn't likely to have the affect claimed here.

Smells like BS, but I appreciate numbers so that we can evaluate the veracity.

*As an aside, these absurd, intentionally deceptive, apocalyptic claims are exactly why people not only avoid joining the Green Religion, but are actively antagonistic against it. If these false prophets piped down, the Green Religion might actually appeal to a broader audience, or at least not be ridiculed so much.

* It's their rate of energy absorption that's being evaluated.
* I've left the solar constant alone.
* I've left the albedo alone.
* The only way you can get snow or ice to absorb the difference in energy is to move Earth closer to the Sun.
* Bowen gave enough information to plug into the inverse-square law which governs the amplitude of solar radiation.
* The new radii just fall out of the math.
* If you park Earth right next to the Sun, the solar insolation becomes, 12,098.18624-quadrillion Watts/meter, instead of 1,397 W/m.
* We're only talking about ice caps and glaciers once covered by 'pure powder snow'.
* The snow IS that effective in cooling the entire planet.
* 144 Btu which converts one pound of 32-F ice to one pound of 32-F water, then raises the one pound of 32-F water 144-degrees!
* This is the latent heat of fusion.
* Remember 'the midnight Sun'?
* The Sun never sets in the Arctic and Antarctic for months at a time?
* Don't trust my math. I never think about what I say. Check it out yourself.

[redpoint5]

I assumed these facts were provided from other sources, not self-sourced math you had worked out. You didn't show the math, so there's no way for me to follow it.

[freebeard]

* The only way you can get snow or ice to absorb the difference in energy is to move Earth closer to the Sun.

And I thought Isaac Arthur's suggestion that a 1 millimeter black hole maintained at the center of the Moon would give it Earth-like gravity was wackadoodle cra-cra.

[RustyLugNut]

Ice cap albedo is not the only form of albedo and is minimal in comparison to the other albedo changing activities we as humans perform.

I read an article years ago on a piece of newsprint that discussed the increased average temperatures across the Los Angeles basin simply because of the dark albedo created by pavement and roofs. It then stated that eastern counties such as the Inland Empire and Palm Springs were effected to some degree by this mass of hot air moving across on prevailing winds. On the other hand, the El Centro Valley, which was a desert before man used the Colorado to irrigate it, sees a temperature drop because of the increased vegetation (farmland).

My point is this. If after curtailing or stopping the output of CO2, the climate warms anyways because of other activities such as albedo changing consturcts, deforestation and farming being only some of them? How about the effect of the oceanic environment? We know so little about the ocean and it covers so much of our planet.

If you force me to destroy my economies by using only wind and solar power and I find that all that effort did nothing to stop disaster, . . . I'm coming to your house and punching you in the nose!

[redpoint5]

LOL, might want to include a smiley to make it unambiguous the comment was made in jest.

I wonder what "CO2" equivalent there is installing white asphalt shingles instead of black? Seems like low hanging fruit considering there is no extra cost for white. White actually costs less when you consider it lasts longer.

I had considered this when putting a new roof on the house several years ago, but black simply looks better and goes with more color schemes. Had to give more weight to resale value than to longevity or reflectivity.

Still, reflecting 4x more energy with white asphalt shingles vs black is no small thing. Very valuable in hot and sunny regions and pays dividends in reduced cooling load.



I expect the greening of the earth to continue as it has been, especially as poorer countries become educated and rise from poverty. Their cities will grow and green spaces can be reclaimed.

[freebeard]

LOL, might want to include a smiley to make it unambiguous the comment was made in jest.

Quoted for truth.

My benchmark would be sine-wave corrugated galvanized steel or aluminum: 61%.

What about the best material, ETFE foil?

https://hightex-group.com › material › membrane › etfe-foil
ETFE foils generally have high transparency. We are able to offer white and coloured foils by the addition of pigments. The foil can be colored with patterns so as to control both transmission and reflection properties. Membranes coated with metallic, ceramic or organic low-E materials allow the production of both sun protection and mirror effects.

[redpoint5]

What I want is a roof that lasts 100 years with nothing but power washing necessary, that can vary from nearly full reflectivity to nearly transparent, that doesn't cost a fortune.

My heating bill would probably be cut in half if I had such a roof. Probably the cooling bill too. Would require a conditioned attic instead of ventilation.

What if we made white concrete roads? Would there be too much sun glare? Would we have to paint it (the lines) black?