Electric car tipping point

[nimblemotors]

I can be highly confident predicting the future, and that would be the predictions of the future will be wrong.

Electric cars are awesome, the problem has always been and continues to be the cost and capacity of batteries. We are now at a point they are viable, but need another 2x in capacity and 1/2 cost, to really get them widely accepted.

There is an easy fix for this issue, which is have a highly efficient car, instead of trying to convert highly inefficient gas cars into electric ones...like Tesla has done. Easy to create a good car that costs $100,000, particularly when you can spend $1 billion doing it.

[ME_Andy]

Originally Posted by nimblemotors

We are now at a point they are viable, but need another 2x in capacity and 1/2 cost, to really get them widely accepted.

That's a bit excessive. I'd say either/or would be fine. Or maybe just a 25% cost reduction.

[pgfpro]

Originally Posted by darcane

Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:

• It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
• It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
• It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
• It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
• It is connected to the Internet.
• It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
• It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
• It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
• It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?



I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV.





I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply

I'm with Avista. I have a friend that is a engineer on one of the Dams and have been talking to him about the water issues were having this year. He said the increase will be happening later this year. How much is unknown?
Lets just say its a major problem that is not being talked to much about.

As far as electric cars go what is the cost per mile now, based on the National average kWh?

[UltArc]

Originally Posted by darcane

Gas Stations: "Reports of my death are an exaggeration"

I'm more inclined to believe that we will be closer to the DoE report that the author references showing that in 2040 electric cars will still be a small minority.

It's one thing to have a niche market of EVs, it's entirely another to have the majority of cars be EVs. For that to happen, we need robust, long-lasting batteries that are not reliant on rare-earth materials. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The author praises the Tesla and uses it to show the wonders of the electric car:

• It’s more fun to drive, with smooth, transmission-less acceleration. For most of us it is the fastest car we have ever owned.
• It’s quieter at all times and nearly silent at low speeds.
• It is always “full” every morning one drives it and you never need to go to a gas station.
• It has a user interface - including, notably, its navigation system - as superior to that of other cars as the iPhone was to earlier phones.
• It is connected to the Internet.
• It continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
• It’s more roomy and has a trunk in the front (the “frunk”) AND a spacious back.
• It comes with an app that allows you to manage the car from your phone.
• It allows you to drive in the carpool lane and to sign up for a cheaper energy usage plan at home (obviously these incentives won’t last, but they will help get us to the tipping point described below).

But this is for a car that ranges from $70,000-145,000! For that kind of money, a gas-powered car will have most of this too. It won't be "full every morning" but the trade off is that it is a lot easier to take a 1000 mile road-trip in a gas car.

Compare the more plebian EVs (Nissan Leaf) to your typical gas car and I think you'll find far less excitement from your average car buyer. I think the success or failure of the Bolt will be far more telling than any of the current EVs since it looks more like a normal car, has a pretty decent range, and is priced low enough to be competitive with conventional commuter cars.

The author uses smartphones as an example for why electrics are going to take off. I think people's experiences with smartphones may be why resale value of electrics is atrocious. Most people seem to think smartphones are disposable and replace them after two years. By then they screens are cracked and the battery life is severely depleted. If the battery in your other electronics only lasts a few years, why spend so much on an electric car that you will replace in two years?



I grew up in Alaska and there were long stretches of road with no gas stations. When we drove through these, we'd just bring a 5-gallon fuel tank or two. It was really no big deal. Try doing that with an EV.





I hadn't heard about a rate hike. Do you use PSE? I'm not too worried about it though, rates are pretty low around here and we actually had a rate reduction last summer.

For reference, PSE reports only about 1/3 hydroelectric as of 2013:
Electric Supply

I stopped reading this when he said iphones were advanced to the phones of the time.

Originally Posted by nimblemotors

There is an easy fix for this issue, which is have a highly efficient car, instead of trying to convert highly inefficient gas cars into electric ones...like Tesla has done. Easy to create a good car that costs $100,000, particularly when you can spend $1 billion doing it.

Tesla makes their own cars...they do not convert gas cars. Isn't that the company you compare your car to? They are competing with BMW, Lexus, Benz, so on, as a rear wheel drive luxury vehicle. For what one gets buying a Tesla, it is a good/decent compared to the competition.

[H-Man]

Why does rear show up as purple in your post?

[P-hack]

Originally Posted by H-Man

Why does rear show up as purple in your post?

For some reason, you have a url that highlights rear (I had to go out of my way to highlight it)...
i.e.
http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/electric-car-tipping-point-32476-2.html?highlight=rear

[freebeard]

Beyond infrastructure, the problematic scenario is to offer a $40K electric version of a $25K gas car, which is worth $15K one year later while the gas car is still worth $20K.

The challenge to 'Detroit' as we know it is Silicon Valley. Tesla isn't going away, and Faraday and Apple and Uber are sitting on piles of cash.

Well, which is progressing faster, gas\hybrid or battery technology?

Gas/hybrid has no headroom because the gas side is already highly evolved, and the electric side depends on .... battery technology.

Waiting for the nano-scale fractal quantum-dot metamaterial electrodes and solid state electrolytes. That oughta do it.

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by Xist

I saw Internet and I wondered who was convinced they needed that. Some prefer streaming music to listening to the radio.

Radio? Didn't that go away about the same time as the incandescent light bulb?

Don't most people put whatever music they want on to their device, be it stand-alone player, cell phone, or whatever, and just play it?

[Frank Lee]

I just drive. No radio, no CD, no tapes, no device. Alone with my thoughts- terrible huh?

[Fat Charlie]

I'll pass.