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Old 09-07-2021, 02:18 AM   #71 (permalink)
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Starting an auto manufacturing company now is a bold move because the industry as a whole is in the consolidation phase. There are already too many players and it needs to shrink considerably, and that process will be expedited when autonomous vehicles become generally available.

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Old 09-07-2021, 10:02 AM   #72 (permalink)
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Well, Rivian is trying to value themselves at $80 billion for their IPO. Quite a bit more than Ford. It's insane.
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Old 09-07-2021, 10:21 AM   #73 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Vaporware is always impressive. There is no way a start-up is going to make a $20K street legal EV. There is also no way a KEI style cab-forward van is going to pass US crash standards.
Something surprising is all the ebussy comments were deleted

Normally this type of things just goes into the unicorn area, while I was gone something must have happened
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Old 09-07-2021, 10:49 AM   #74 (permalink)
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Well, Rivian is trying to value themselves at $80 billion for their IPO. Quite a bit more than Ford. It's insane.
Yes, it is insane but "normal" for new EV companies. Most won't survive but that doesn't mean investors won't throw money at them hoping they turn into the next TSLA (which is valued more than all the other automotive manufacturers combined)

3 of the 10 most valuable automakers in the world are EV start-ups that make a tiny number of vehicles:

1. Tesla - $755 billion
4. BYD - $115 billion
8. NIO - $68 billion

There are 3 more in the top 20 including companies that haven't made a single vehicle.
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Old 09-07-2021, 01:12 PM   #75 (permalink)
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BYD is not really a startup. I remember seeing some ICE-powered copies of Toyotas made by BYD with Uruguayan plates, yet the only BYD cars I have seen with Brazilian plates (for test) were electric (including 2 urban transit buses in my hometown).
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Old 09-07-2021, 04:26 PM   #76 (permalink)
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BYD is not really a startup. I remember seeing some ICE-powered copies of Toyotas made by BYD with Uruguayan plates, yet the only BYD cars I have seen with Brazilian plates (for test) were electric (including 2 urban transit buses in my hometown).
BYD was founded in 2003 - the same year as Tesla. Like Tesla they are a tiny player in the global automotive industry. BYD is on track to sell 500K vehicles in 2021 which is more or less what Tesla will sell. Combined that would give them 1.4% market share yet they are the #1 and #4 most valuable automotive companies in the world. How does that make any kind of logical sense?
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Old 09-07-2021, 09:19 PM   #77 (permalink)
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BYD was founded in 2003 - the same year as Tesla. Like Tesla they are a tiny player in the global automotive industry.
IIRC their core business is batteries for cellphones.
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Old 09-07-2021, 09:32 PM   #78 (permalink)
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In some cases like say Ford or GM, you have to consider legacy liabilities in their value. So a startup car maker may not have factories but they also don't have 200,000 employees producing nothing but still collecting paychecks, and getting $5 copays on $1000 doctor visits.
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Old 09-07-2021, 09:38 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Quote:
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In some cases like say Ford or GM, you have to consider legacy liabilities in their value. So a startup car maker may not have factories but they also don't have 200,000 employees producing nothing but still collecting paychecks, and getting $5 copays on $1000 doctor visits.
That's a good point. Legacy liability was a main reason why Ford retreated from manufacturing in Brazil.
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Old 09-07-2021, 11:23 PM   #80 (permalink)
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IIRC their core business is batteries for cellphones.
The core business for BYD Electrical is cell phones. BYD Automotive is a separate company that is independently valued at $114 billion as of today. That is about what GM and Ford are valued combined

Quote:
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In some cases like say Ford or GM, you have to consider legacy liabilities in their value. So a startup car maker may not have factories but they also don't have 200,000 employees producing nothing but still collecting paychecks, and getting $5 copays on $1000 doctor visits.
GM handed over responsibility for retiree healthcare to the UAW in the bankruptcy.

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