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Old 08-13-2022, 02:13 PM   #121 (permalink)
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Hybrids save money over the life of the vehicle. A Camry LE is $25,845 and rated at 32 mpg. A Camry Hybrid LE is $28,080 and rated at 52 mpg. FuelEconomy.gov tells me that is a savings of $550 per year with gas at $3 a gallon. That extra $2235 purchase price pays back in 4 years. At 15 years you are $6,000 in the black on fuel savings alone - not even taking into account that the Hybrid will have it's original brakes while the Standard Camry will likely be on it's 2nd to 3rd set of brakes / rotors.

At 15 years you are at 214K miles driving the average US mileage. At that point a car is pretty much fully depreciated. Prior to the current vehicle shortage we are talking value of a few thousand dollars. Any major failure will send a vehicle that old to the scrapyard. However, if you wanted to replace the battery an OEM Toyota pack is $3500 + about $500 in labor. Most people would put that $4K toward a new car - no different than if the engine or transmission needed to be replaced for thousands of dollars.
I'm no expert, but it just seems that if every car were a hybrid and therefore every car basically had an expiration date of 15 years, that would put an end to the poor man's car, period. People who buy new cars might not be affected, depending on the demand and such. But if car's are worthless in 15 years, then what will be the prices of 10 year cars, or 5 year cars? It seems like there'd be some effect, probably good for the richer but bad for the poorer.

For an example I would love to put 4,000 towards a new car. I could even sell my Avalon for $10,000 (maybe more) and the Prius for a couple and have maybe $15,000 for a down payment. But I don't think there's anything out there I could afford right now with the way prices are even with a downpayment like that, at least not something that would be better or equal to what I already have.

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Old 08-13-2022, 03:11 PM   #122 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary View Post
I'm no expert, but it just seems that if every car were a hybrid and therefore every car basically had an expiration date of 15 years, that would put an end to the poor man's car, period. People who buy new cars might not be affected, depending on the demand and such. But if car's are worthless in 15 years, then what will be the prices of 10 year cars, or 5 year cars? It seems like there'd be some effect, probably good for the richer but bad for the poorer.
Hybrid batteries don't magically quit at 15 years old. Some will die sooner, others later. There was someone on Ecomodder that worked at a Toyota dealer and if I remember correctly he said most Prius batteries die at 16 - 18 years.

That said - even today a 15 year old car is pretty much worthless. As I mentioned above it is a major failure or even several minor failures away from going to the scrapeyard. It is the reason why people like Xist end up with 3 broken old cars. They buy a cheap car, something breaks and fixing it is more than the car is worth. So they buy another cheap car, something breaks - rinse and repeat.

That is the reality we live in right now. Less than 25% of vehicles on the road are older than 15 years. In 2021 1.2% of 15 million used cars sold in the USA had more than 200K miles on the odometer.

Another thing to consider is that a hybrid with a dead battery isn't necessarily dead. A Prius will drive with a dead battery as will other hybrids. They won't get the fuel economy they would with a working battery but they will go down the road. They will also have the dash lit up with warning lights so they won't pass inspection in areas that require inspections.

There is also the option to replace the battery either with a new one, junkyard one, or aftermarket battery. If all vehicles were hybrids people that drive 15 - 20 years old cars will have to learn new skills to keep their cars on the road. Instead of learning how to swap in a junkyard automatic transmission they will need to learn how to swap a battery.
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Old 08-13-2022, 04:14 PM   #123 (permalink)
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That said - even today a 15 year old car is pretty much worthless
I'm down to two vehicles, one 1971 and one 1990. The Metro is the newest model year I've owned.

My biggest problem is all the mechanics I knew either retired or passed.

The general public's problem is there aren't enough Model T Ford to go around. They will be running long afte the current crop is gone.

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Old 08-13-2022, 09:32 PM   #124 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSH View Post
Hybrid batteries don't magically quit at 15 years old. Some will die sooner, others later. There was someone on Ecomodder that worked at a Toyota dealer and if I remember correctly he said most Prius batteries die at 16 - 18 years.

That said - even today a 15 year old car is pretty much worthless. As I mentioned above it is a major failure or even several minor failures away from going to the scrapeyard. It is the reason why people like Xist end up with 3 broken old cars. They buy a cheap car, something breaks and fixing it is more than the car is worth. So they buy another cheap car, something breaks - rinse and repeat.

That is the reality we live in right now. Less than 25% of vehicles on the road are older than 15 years. In 2021 1.2% of 15 million used cars sold in the USA had more than 200K miles on the odometer.

Another thing to consider is that a hybrid with a dead battery isn't necessarily dead. A Prius will drive with a dead battery as will other hybrids. They won't get the fuel economy they would with a working battery but they will go down the road. They will also have the dash lit up with warning lights so they won't pass inspection in areas that require inspections.

There is also the option to replace the battery either with a new one, junkyard one, or aftermarket battery. If all vehicles were hybrids people that drive 15 - 20 years old cars will have to learn new skills to keep their cars on the road. Instead of learning how to swap in a junkyard automatic transmission they will need to learn how to swap a battery.
I think that's maybe what I've done with the Prius. Sure, it cost me $300, but needs a hybrid battery, a California compiant catalytic converter, and if I want the catalytic converter to last, either new piston rings or possible a whole new short block, not to mention it also needs a wheel bearing, the body looks pretty terrible and the interior isn't great either. Just the parts to make it roadworthy would be in the $6,000 range if I tackled it all by myself, plus several weeks of work. So I think I'm just going to sell it and that's that. At least I shouldn't lose any money on it.

And no, I still don't believe in junkyard batteries or aftermarket batteries. Tell me of one person who's aftermarket hybrid battery lasted more than 3 years, unless it was close to OEM price. Most people seem to be doing good to get a year out of one that's $600 to $1,000.

Anywho, compared to my 1985 VW Golf I had, I got 7 years out of it and never had any major problems except for a wheel bearing that failed and problems with aftermarket CV axle boots and door handles breaking every winter. The Golf had way more miles and was much older than the Prius, and it still runs to this day. Is it because the Prius is a hybrid and Golf isn't? Or was it just luck? Or was making sure the engine never ran out of water or oil, regular oil changes and always checking the transaxle oil and replacing seals or hoses when necessary that did it?

But regardless, now what do I do?. It's easy to say "car's 15 years are pretty much worthless" but how do I keep owning a car that's not 15 years old? I got the Avalon when it was 5 years old for $15,000 with $5,000 down from the money I saved from driving an old VW Golf for 7 years. That gives me a loan of $180 per month for five years. The Avalon will be paid off in less than a year and will be 10 years old soon. I think I could sell it for $10,000, maybe a bit more, and put that down on a newer car.

But what car? The Avalon Hybrid had just over 50k miles, was accident free and was 5 years old. The cheapest accident free Hybrid Avalon with less than 60k and at least 5 years old that I can find now on Autotempest in the entire country is $30,500. (There is only one cheaper one, it's $25,000, but was in a major accident.) If I put $10,000 down on it (the $30,500 Avalon) and drove it in from Minesota where it's at that would put me into a loan of at least $20,000, twice my previous loan! So $360 per month for 5 years. (I didn't even mention taxes.)

Why? Just covid related shortages?

Of course I have a custom welded tow hitch, a second set of rims with snow tires that may or may not fit a newer Avalon, and the all seasons I bought look pretty good still too. I don't think I can just swap all that over to a newer Avalon, so that's a couple grand right there more I'd have to spend to get the exact same thing, maybe with the money I make from selling the Prius.

But what if I wait, say, another 5 years after paying off the Avalon and save up $10,000 in that time by saving what I would have put in payments. The Avalon would be worth even less, maybe $5,000 or less. But I'd have that plus the $10,000 I saved. If I put $15,000 down on a 5 year old Avalon then, maybe they'd be a little cheaper than they are now and payments would be about the same as now, or I'd be making a little more then????

Or since this is the Maverick thread, maybe I should sell the Avalon, take the $10,000, put it down on a new Maverick and have the same payments I have now of around $180... A family of 4 could fit, technically, right?

Sometimes I wish there were a giant neon sign in the sky saying "Do this!"
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Old 08-13-2022, 10:19 PM   #125 (permalink)
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Old 08-14-2022, 12:03 AM   #126 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary View Post
But what if I wait, say, another 5 years after paying off the Avalon and save up $10,000 in that time by saving what I would have put in payments. The Avalon would be worth even less, maybe $5,000 or less. But I'd have that plus the $10,000 I saved. If I put $15,000 down on a 5 year old Avalon then, maybe they'd be a little cheaper than they are now and payments would be about the same as now, or I'd be making a little more then????
Two parts of the equation; income and expenses. Right now, things are expensive and not a good market to be buying. But, lower end wages have skyrocketed. Taco Bell will pay $17/hr plus a bonus. Many job markets are seeking employees, and now is a good time to negotiate.
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Old 08-14-2022, 02:32 AM   #127 (permalink)
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Going by the Dave Ramsey's budget (whoever that is, I just found his budget to be interesting when googling) a person should try to spend no more than 25% of income on housing and 10% on transportation. Others say to pay no more than 10% on your car payment and no more than 20% total on total transportation.

Per hour for 40 hours a week for 48 work weeks a year:
Per year roughly after taxes working as employee, married:
Per month 10% (car) and 25% (house)
$17.50, $30K, $250, $625
$21.38, $36K, $300, $750
$25.16, $42K, $350, $875
$30.81, $51K, $425, $1,062.50
$40.56, $66K, $500, $1,250

Cheapest rent right now that I can find in area:
$1,500 per month (does not include utilities).

Cheapest Maveric within 500 miles of my place according to Cars.com:
$26,425,
The Cars.com monthly payment calculator, $350/month for 72 months.

So, in order to live a person needs to make around $40 or more per hour?! Or spend a lot more than 10% and 25% of income on his car and home. Maybe make $21.38 or more per hour and spend 50% on rent and 20% on vehicle and 30% on everything else. That would be $1,000 for food, clothing, phone, internet, savings, healthcare, utilities, recreation and anything else.
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Old 08-14-2022, 11:48 PM   #128 (permalink)
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Hourly to annual income is roughly every $1 per hour equates to $2,000 annual income. That means a $20/hr employee makes $40,000 / year.

The $18 / hr Taco Bell new hires are making $36,000 if they happened to score full time employment, plus the few grand bonus if they last 6 months.

If I happened to make $18 / hr, I would not expect to have an entire domicile to myself. Even if I made more, I would not exclude the possibility of subletting a domicile with others. Certainly I would dwell not on the constraints as much as the possibilities.
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Old 08-15-2022, 08:45 AM   #129 (permalink)
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Hourly to annual income is roughly every $1 per hour equates to $2,000 annual income. That means a $20/hr employee makes $40,000 / year.

The $18 / hr Taco Bell new hires are making $36,000 if they happened to score full time employment, plus the few grand bonus if they last 6 months.

If I happened to make $18 / hr, I would not expect to have an entire domicile to myself. Even if I made more, I would not exclude the possibility of subletting a domicile with others. Certainly I would dwell not on the constraints as much as the possibilities.
Yes, a $20/hr employee makes $40,000/year before taxes. I was estimating what they'd make after taxes.

Many people share their domicile with their spouse and children.

The median income for one person in the USA is around $45,000, and for an entire household around $70,000. That means half the population makes that or less. If you factor in taxes, half of individuals take home about $3,500 or less per month. 10% of that is $350 or less. And a household gets about $5,000 or less per month after taxes, so 10% would be $500 or less.

For me, I put a monthly budget on how much I spend on transportation and try not to pass that budget. If I were to throw a new car or one that's 5 years-old right now, I'd blow that budget quite quickly, unless it were perhaps a small economy car. So I'm thinking I probably should keep my eyes on small economy cars or hope the economy will change for the better soon.

But even then, the question is, can a person really save money by avoiding old cars and sticking with a monthly payment?
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Old 08-15-2022, 10:04 AM   #130 (permalink)
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Yes, a $20/hr employee makes $40,000/year before taxes. I was estimating what they'd make after taxes.
You need to make up your mind -- are you using take home pay as your number, or are you using gross income? Which number did the Ramsey budget use?

Quote:
But even then, the question is, can a person really save money by avoiding old cars and sticking with a monthly payment?
Transportation costs money. The simplest way to think about it is cost per mile.

https://www.carpaymentcalculator.net/calcs/car-cost.php

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