Gas prices in 2012? At least $4?

[user removed]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Yep, Dec 21 2012 the world ends.
According to the Mayans.
The day my first Social Security is due.
I knew they would figure out a way to not pay me.
Doomsday is inevitable!
We're all going to DIE, DIE, DIE.

That's one prediction you can believe.

Back to the gas thread .

regards
Mech

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The failure of one prediction, or even a whole series of predictions, has no bearing on the veracity of an argument. Doomsday is inevitable, but fortunately those events usually take a very long time.

Calling them cronicly wrong is an understatement yet we need to worry about their predictions?

Originally Posted by Arragonis

a lot of the predictions had a timescale attached and they didn't match reality in the timescale chosen

True, some of them are just recycled old predictions updated with a much further out date.

[Olympiadis]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

real science invites skepticism, critical thinking, more information and alternatives.

this ^

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Is skepticism a bad thing? Without it we would continue believing the world is flat, at the center of the universe.

True skepticism is a good thing. The problem here is that the climate "skeptics" want us to go on believing that the world is flat, and ignoring all that pesky science that says it's round.

Meteorologists have a very difficult time predicting just what the local weather will do tomorrow, so skepticism of predictions for the entire world over the course of hundreds of years is reasonable.

Only if you a) don't have a clue about the science involved; and b) refuse to learn. We might, by exactly the same logic, claim that because the roll of any one die is very difficult to predict, the house doesn't have the edge in craps, yet somehow casinos still make a profit :-)

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

The problem I find is all these predictions have been made, dooms dates have come and gone, nothing happened and some times the predictions get recycled and extended out another 20 to 70 years. Other wise not a single one has even came close.

And why don't a lot of the predictions come true? Because once a disaster is predicted, in most cases a lot of sensible people work their butts off doing something to avert the disaster. See Y2K as probably the prime example.

If you want to consider just environmental predictions, how about the Ice Age being triggered by sulfate emissions that the denialists like to go on about? What happened is that because of the prediction (and other things like smog & acid rain that had their own disasters attached), sensible people enacted various pollution-control regulations, the amout of emissions was greatly reduced, and without the emissions the disaster didn't happen. I find it amusing that the same denialists who use this as an example of a failed prediction are quite happy to speak out of the other side of their mouths and recommend sulfate aerosols as a geoengineering solution to the global warming that isn't happening.

Or we could consider that flurocarbons destroying the ozone layer thing. That's a nice example of a double-edged prediction: the environmental types were predicting a disaster from continuing use of flurocarbons, while the business-as-usual types were predicting economic disaster if they couldn't use them. Well, most flurocarbon use was banned, the ozone hole stopped growing (score one for environmentalists), and the economic disaster didn't happen.

[Arragonis]

You couldn't be arsed thinking about my point over name calling either ?

[suspectnumber961]

Proof Of U.S. Greater Depression (NYSEArca:SLV, NYSEArca:GLD, NYSEArca:SDS, NYSEArca:FAZ, NYSEArca:AGQ) | ETF DAILY NEWS

The great U.S. economy, the largest oil-glutton in the history of humanity (by several multiples) is now a “net energy exporter”. How can this be possible? The U.S. economy has contracted so severely (already) that the only way that U.S. refineries can sell all the petroleum products they produce is to sell them to the growing economies of “emerging market” nations.

Reflecting the broad-based collapse of the U.S. economy, these refineries are now exporting all categories of petroleum products: diesel, jet fuel, and even gasoline are now being exported in large quantities, month-after-month by U.S. refineries. Recall that it was only four, short years ago that many American politicians were alarmed by the crisis of the “lack of U.S. refining capacity”. No new refineries have been constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years, and at that time those refineries were straining to meet the demand of solely the U.S. domestic market. With that domestic market collapsing, these refineries are now straining to find enough foreign buyers to unload all of their inventories.

THE BAD NEWS?

This is a dying economy in the midst of a Greater Depression. Even with B.S. Bernanke’s permanent 0% interest rates (something which would have been totally unthinkable just four years earlier), this monetary defibrillator cannot continue to feign “life” in this economic corpse. The moment that fiscal tightening inevitably begins, the full brunt of the U.S.’s Greater Depression will bludgeon the American people – and hopefully (finally) awaken then from their terminal apathy.

Think Greek?

[suspectnumber961]

The Petro Business Cycle | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

If you want to know where the economy is heading, watch the price of oil. Oil is used to power over 90% of our transportation fleet from land, sea, to air. It is responsible for 95% of the production of all goods found in stores. It is also directly linked to 95% of our food products, from the fertilizer used in the planting cycle to the diesel used in tractors to the trucks that transport the food to processing plants and grocery stores. Look behind nearly any consumer item, building material, or medical device and you will find it linked to oil in some way. Plain and simple, we live in a petroleum-based society. It is the common thread behind all industrial/modern economies. Without oil our present way of life would cease to exist. For this reason, it is not only the most highly sought-after resource by nations worldwide, but also critical in driving the natural rhythms of recession and recovery. We define this as the "Petro Business Cycle".

[user removed]

And your solution?

regards
Mech

[Arragonis]

He/she/it doesn't do those. Ignore is your friend.