Gas prices in 2012? At least $4?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by suspectnumber961

The ENERGY vs ECONOMIC feedback mechanism is now with us for good?

Energy prices UP...economy stalls...economy stalls...energy prices go DOWN?

Cheap energy is not there to fuel the perpetual growth scenario? So the DEBT overhang can't be "grown" away? Add in population growth and the increasing costs to deal with global warming and extreme weather....?

So it looks like there's trouble in River City.

About the only thing that might save us is that all those people who believe go ahead and float up into the air...thus reducing the load on the planet.....

Hasn't energy always been tied to economic prosperity? Why did Europeans have relative prosperity compared to say, Native Americans? They had beasts of burden which gave them an energy advantage.

Your comments assume the following:

Cheap energy will not exist in the future

We are abundantly bombarded with free energy all the time. In fact, many are concerned that the earth does not waste this free energy fast enough (global warming). It seems inevitable that we learn to harness other forms of energy as our current favorite becomes too expensive.

Economic growth will not be possible due to expensive energy

Do we all agree that economic prosperity is dependent on abundance of energy?

Population growth and resource strains are inevitable

The US would have a negative population growth if not for immigration. The trend in affluent countries is a decreasing population growth rate. Link

Rapture may not be necessary to control population.

Global warming will have drastic and costly consequences

The film Cool It makes the case that many of us have an unrealistic perspective on the subject.

Cool It

[Frank Lee]

Natives didn't have horses?

A decreasing pop growth rate is not a pop decline; it is a slow in the rate of increase but yes it is still an increase.

In fact, many are concerned that the earth does not waste this free energy fast enough (global warming). It seems inevitable that we learn to harness other forms of energy as our current favorite becomes too expensive.

And switching to other forms is cheap?

[gone-ot]

...local SHELL is $3.159-per-gallon today, has been under $3.00 all summer.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

Natives didn't have horses?

Nope. Spaniards introduced them in the 16th century and natives were late at putting them to use.

A decreasing pop growth rate is not a pop decline; it is a slow in the rate of increase but yes it is still an increase.

True enough, although the trend is a decrease in growth for most all countries, and at some point it will be zero overall. The zeroing of the population growth can either be voluntary, or it can be forced by politics or nature. My guess is it will be a little of both.

And switching to other forms is cheap?

Switching forms is cheap; heavens no. But once the switch is made, it will certainly be relatively cheap, otherwise we would still be on fossil fuels.

[suspectnumber961]

From what I gather here and there...it takes a lot of time AND energy to transition to alternate sources. Those who "control" current energy sources...mostly coal, oil and gas....can only see their profits go UP as demand increases and supply decreases?

With political decisions mostly controlled by $$$$ (guess WHO has and will have the $?) ...the decisions to go with alternates won't be made in time?

AFTER the various PEAKS occur...it will be TOO LATE? No extra anything to make changes, let alone allow economic growth...a DECREASED standard of living......POST PEAKS ain't gonna be fun.....except for DIYers?

The current US admin tried in a half-*ssed way...but have the ball and chain of the perpetually retrograde to drag along.....who want to return to the "good old days" and "morning in America"?

I see fascism rearing it's ugly head sooner than later. I see it already...but it's not yet up and running.....just awake and looking around....? It will be with us soon due for the perceived need to "control" remaining resources (wars?) and to control populations (economic/climate/food refugees?).

After all....9/11 and the after-birth of same was and is all about OIL and it's use and control?

note: this is not a political post...but if it involves humans...it involves their interactions

[suspectnumber961]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Your comments assume the following:

Cheap energy will not exist in the future

You assume some kind of magical tech advances?

Economic growth will not be possible due to expensive energy

Unless you can make stuff without using energy...you will be making much less of it. No easy growth?

Population growth and resource strains are inevitable

More people who want more stuff = STRAINS?

Global warming will have drastic and costly consequences

Some consequences are already here? More on the way?

I think that the reality is that the changes will be like watching paint dry...and the with the reduced memory capacity of certain populations...the changes might not even be noticed. Which is what those promoting DOAN WORRY BOUT IT are counting on? Those who profit from things as they are want things to continue as they are?

Its interesting...all the disaster movies...while the real slower moving disasters are being mostly ignored? GMOs? Antibiotic use?

I notice that fracking is polluting the ground water...and the pollution dangers of the XLpipeline....used to get oil to Texas for refining and export and profits. The coming war with Iran? Arab spring resulting in part from higher food prices resulting in part from ethanol?

[brucey]

It could stay at 3.50 a gallon or it could be 9.50 a gallon.

And either way it still won't be cheap enough.

[Frank Lee]

It's never cheap enough for those who want to put 50,000 miles/year on their Canyoneros.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by suspectnumber961

AFTER the various PEAKS occur...it will be TOO LATE? No extra anything to make changes, let alone allow economic growth...a DECREASED standard of living......POST PEAKS ain't gonna be fun.....except for DIYers?...

note: this is not a political post...but if it involves humans...it involves their interactions

I hear what you are saying and mostly agree with your observations. Humans tend to be reactionary instead of proactive. When did New Orleans get a new levee... after the first one was overcome. What causes housing bubbles, stock market crashes, and education bubbles- reactions. People don't apply reason to a situation and anticipate the outcome, instead they react based on emotion.

There seems to be a possibility of decreased standards of living for some period of time, although I tend to believe a more moderate level of discomfort during the transition.

Originally Posted by suspectnumber961

Cheap energy will not exist in the future

You assume some kind of magical tech advances?

I do believe that everything is miraculous, but that is a different subject entirely. The kind of advances I anticipate are the kind we are familiar with. They are the innovations that make television sets thinner, cheaper, and more energy efficient. There will likely be some breakthroughs in technology, but mostly we will see an evolution of existing tech.

Economic growth will not be possible due to expensive energy

Unless you can make stuff without using energy...you will be making much less of it. No easy growth?

Agreed. In my view, abundant useable energy is the key to economic prosperity.

Population growth and resource strains are inevitable

More people who want more stuff = STRAINS?

Global warming will have drastic and costly consequences

Some consequences are already here? More on the way?

I tend to agree here too. Perhaps governments will provide disincentives to reproduction in the future. Currently, most governments provide massive subsidies for families (tax benefits, education, healthcare, etc). I see these incentives becoming less popular with tax payers as time goes on. On the other hand, there does seem to be a trend towards increasing socialism, so perhaps children will continue to be subsidized, but a limit may be imposed on the number allowed.

As far as global warming goes, I haven't been impacted by it yet, and I don't foresee my life being much different if the climate is a couple degrees warmer over the course of many decades.

I imagine we will be fretting over something entirely different within a decade. Iranian nuclear weapons perhaps? I dunno, but I'm fairly certain it won't be the weather.

[brucey]

Originally Posted by Frank Lee

It's never cheap enough for those who want to put 50,000 miles/year on their Canyoneros.

Smells like a steak and seats 35!

I actually meant to say 'not expensive enough' since that's the only way I see the masses ever changing away from it. Haven't had my coffee today I guess.