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Old 06-17-2020, 12:12 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rmay635703 View Post
700,000 cars would cut the black book in half or less, right now that’s at parity with the entire pandemic North American market.

AKA If they were charging a legitimate wholesale+ amount to the retail market they would sell, if they dumped into the actual wholesale marketplace values would simply drop off a cliff

Hard place to be in but it is what is it is.
Why would the company liquidating Hertz cars dump them all at once instead of spreading them out?

As to the Pandemic market - used car sales are higher than last year and inventory is lower.

Quote:
Dealers are now competing to buy vehicles, even as the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain.

“We actually have an issue now, which is that we don’t have enough inventory,” said George Arison, co-CEO of online used-car seller Shift. Shift’s sales rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels by late April.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23C1FK



Someone looking to grab a killer deal on a used car due to COVID may have already missed their window.

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Old 06-17-2020, 12:16 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Why would the company liquidating Hertz cars dump them all at once instead of spreading them out?

As to the Pandemic market - used car sales are higher than last year and inventory is lower..
Inventory is lower because of lag in the marketplace
AKA there is a glut in a field because of entities doing just what you suggest, every repair depo in my area is overflowing with functional cars packed tight waiting for prices and markets to improve, they only have so much space and can only wait so long.
Morbid as it seems the market was helped by close to a million cars being for all purposes destroyed by natural events

Housing costs are higher despite fewer sales for the same reason

Last edited by rmay635703; 06-17-2020 at 12:44 PM..
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:37 PM   #23 (permalink)
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I expect the price of most things, especially toys and other non-essential items to go down over the next 1-2 years. Some of the job losses aren't coming back soon. We're in for a minimum of 1 more period of lockdowns (some places haven't even opened, like PDX), and at least 1 more round of rioting/looting. If Trump wins another election, that's another round of rioting/looting.

Late winter might be a good time to begin purchases.
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Old 06-17-2020, 04:56 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Again, how is a 1 year old car selling for less than 50% of new not a deal?
Well, here's one with 36,000 miles for $2,000 less. From a place that isn't famously in bankruptcy. Just a car dealership selling cars, without any "Going Out Of Business Forever" shtick or anything like that.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used...ting=270471623

$22k from a dealership that plans to still be around a year from now looks better to me than $24k from the bankruptcy "bargains".
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:14 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Well, here's one with 36,000 miles for $2,000 less. From a place that isn't famously in bankruptcy. Just a car dealership selling cars, without any "Going Out Of Business Forever" shtick or anything like that.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used...ting=270471623

$22k from a dealership that plans to still be around a year from now looks better to me than $24k from the bankruptcy "bargains".
Why does it matter if Hertz might be going out of business? I just don't get the fascination with this. I have never been back to a dealer I purchased a car from. Once the car is in my possession the dealer is irrelevant

Yes, the car in NY is $2,000 less with 7,000 more miles. The details say it was a rental car and it is a salt car. It is also listed for $13,500 on the dealer's website so you might expect some monkey business with dealer fees. 2 out of 4 reviews say the dealer didn't follow through on a sale after the buyer put down a deposit.

All that said, I'll point to CarGuru's rating on the price (Great Deal - $4,653 below market price)

The Hertz car is rated as (Good Deal - $3,266 below market value)
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Old 06-17-2020, 09:41 PM   #26 (permalink)
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What is a market? Hertz is desperate and dying, but a car dealership that plans to stay open is undercutting them. It sounds like Hertz is playing on buyers' expectations of fire sale prices to charge higher prices. And they're pointing at an out of date book to make it look like a discount.

Crude oil dropped below zero and the concept of "jobs" is a bit iffy. A "used car value book" seems rather quaint at the moment. I googled "2019 cadillac cts for sale" and the one I linked to was the second result (now it's the first, go Ecomodder!).

So if you want a year old Caddy, you can find one cheap without trying hard. If you go to Hertz for the bargains, you'll pay more. For $2k, I'll fly to Albany and drive home in my year-old Caddy. But neither price is "below" market value. Advertised prices are a bit above market value.
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Old 06-18-2020, 08:31 AM   #27 (permalink)
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What is a market?
It sounds like Hertz is playing on buyers' expectations of fire sale prices to charge higher prices. And they're pointing at an out of date book to make it look like a discount.

But neither price is "below" market value. Advertised prices are a bit above market value.
THIS 100%

Most of the sales occurring recently seem to play on the buyers ignorance of actual scarcity with a gotta buy now.

There is a local 1000sqft home with a 1/10 of an acre lot for $200,000 because there is a housing shortage right now.
Normally that “city house” is a $45,000 affair.
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Old 06-18-2020, 07:41 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Market is the average sale price for the model car with the same trim and mileage in the same geographical region.

Flying and driving costs money. Albany to Denver is 1800 miles. That is a flight, 4 nights of hotels and food plus 1800 miles of gas.

If you are flying and driving why does it matter if the dealership is in business after you buy the car? Why does Hertz's bankruptcy matter when it comes to price?
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:52 PM   #29 (permalink)
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The market only exists in peoples' heads, especially now. What is an average sale price during a lockdown in a pandemic with unemployment benefits about to run out while recovering from riots?

"Going out of business" sales play on the buyer's perception that the seller is desperate. That's why mattress stores that have been around forever always seem to be going out of business. Hertz's bankruptcy draws the eyes of people assuming they're trying to turn their inventory into any sort of cash, even at a "loss"- that they're desperately trying to get out from under their inventory. Joe McStayinginbusiness is actually trying to make a profit and keep his store running. If he's undercutting Hertz, it tells me their deals aren't good. But Hertz will have some success, mainly because there's a sucker born every minute.

I buy and sell things, and I set prices based on perceptions too. But if I advertise a price, it's a price I can be happy with- I don't undercut anyone unless I'm still happy with my markup. I'll sell things at rock bottom prices if I can still make it work for me, and on some of them it's really funny how well it works. I'll even sell things at a loss, but only if I'm trapped and trying to cut my losses. And if a "customer" wants to push too hard, the price goes up and I'll cheerfully tell him to take a hike.

So I'm assuming that Joe McStayinginbusiness is making a decent profit on his year old Caddy. And Hertz, with their "We're in bankruptcy! Look at these cars being sold for below book value!" is riding the hype as far as they can. Joe from Schenectady has got to be jealous.
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:12 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Quote:
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So I'm assuming that Joe McStayinginbusiness is making a decent profit on his year old Caddy. And Hertz, with their "We're in bankruptcy! Look at these cars being sold for below book value!" is riding the hype as far as they can. Joe from Schenectady has got to be jealous.
Assuming Joe McStayinginbusiness is selling at a profit is a big assumption when they are advertising the lowest price in the USA. Are you sure they aren't just silently trying to move some cars and stay out of bankruptcy?

Nationwide the range on Car Guru is $22,000 to $40,000

EDIT:

When I see a dealer price below everyone else I think this:

Quote:
"A new trend among dealerships selling used cars is to post a price that is well below the market average only to make up for it later with back end fees. So while the posted price or sale price looks competitive that value is quickly eroded by other nonsense."
More details in the article below - including an example of a Kia dealership adding $2888 of bogus fees BEFORE legitimate extras like taxes and DMV fee.

https://jalopnik.com/how-used-car-de...ric-1837030397


Last edited by JSH; 06-19-2020 at 10:47 AM..
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