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Old 03-21-2020, 06:27 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Agreed on an points about Miami. I grew up in Florida, and even spent a summer working in Miami. Nothing there I want to see. Just using it as a reference.

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Old 03-21-2020, 07:22 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ecky
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) I already have the car I want.
I think I know the one you're talking about.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:47 PM   #13 (permalink)
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.
Cheap and abundant oil is going fund the comeback and then some.
I was reading that since around 2012 when shale oil and gas production really kicked off, low oil prices became not so clearly good for the overall US economy, since that industry is so important to certain regions of the US.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:29 PM   #14 (permalink)
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.

Read the OP’s first post.

Future Recession

Yes the whole world is now in recession.

Thanks Mr. Obvious for pointing that out...

We will be fine.

No infrastructure has been lost.

Hopefully, little to no workforce will be lost.

Consumers are still going to consume and need the essentials at the very least.

The travel industry however is probably in trouble in the short term.


Relax.

We’re still in good shape.

It’ll take time to return normalcy.

Nobody’s throwing in the towel yet...







>
Nobody is throwing in the towel but it seem pretty obvious that this recession is just getting started and is going to be worst than the 2008 / 2009 recession.

We aren't talking about just the travel industry. We are talking about entire cities / states shutting down for weeks or months. Here in Portland all restaurants are closed, all bars are closed, all sporting events, concerts, shows, and movies are cancelled. More industries are expected to be ordered to close tomorrow as they have in other states.

Steve Mnuchin is talking 20% unemployment rates. That is double 2009. Only 15 states have announced unemployment filings for last week and we are already up to 630,000 people filing for unemployment last week. That matches the worst weeks of 2009 with 35 states still to report.

Yes, we will get through it but it is going to be a rough ride.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:55 PM   #15 (permalink)
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In October 2009 unemployment was 10.4% or 10.5% which was the peak.

What could happen here, assuming the government doesn't cancel rent, is all the service sector employees who have had their jobs closed (restaurants, bars, bands, amusement parks, childcare, nonessential retail, etc) will be unable to pay rent and get evicted en masse which could lead to severe social disruption. That's why Mnuchin wants to give everyone around $1200 a month for a couple months, but it seems like it's getting stalled by the usual bickering in Congress right now.

Those people, once the lockdowns end, aren't going to be going out for dinner or to see the next Marvel film. They're going to be scrambling to find a place to live if they were evicted. The rent money will of course get siphoned into the hands of the rich and a bunch of REITs and will never be seen again. The recovery will be slow because we won't have much in the way of discretionary consumer spending for a while, until everyone gets back on their feet and can afford to do things again.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:25 PM   #16 (permalink)
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops

Quote:
"The Machine Stops" is a science fiction short story (12,300 words) by E. M. Forster. After initial publication in The Oxford and Cambridge Review (November 1909), the story was republished in Forster's The Eternal Moment and Other Stories in 1928...

The story, set in a world where humanity lives underground and relies on a giant machine to provide its needs, predicted technologies similar to instant messaging and the Internet.
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Old 03-22-2020, 07:03 AM   #17 (permalink)
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.

There’s no question a lot of people are in financial pain. And sadly, a lot more is coming.




>
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:51 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Natalya View Post
In October 2009 unemployment was 10.4% or 10.5% which was the peak.

What could happen here, assuming the government doesn't cancel rent, is all the service sector employees who have had their jobs closed (restaurants, bars, bands, amusement parks, childcare, nonessential retail, etc) will be unable to pay rent and get evicted en masse which could lead to severe social disruption. That's why Mnuchin wants to give everyone around $1200 a month for a couple months, but it seems like it's getting stalled by the usual bickering in Congress right now....
$1200 a month doesn't even cover rent let alone other large costs (like health insurance). Unemployment is also insufficient. I collect unemployment for 8 months back in 2008 / 2009 when the company I worked for folded. It was capped at $220 a week which was about 20% of the median household income at the time. My wife and I didn't need it and I just invested it in my IRA but people that needed to try to live on it were just screwed.

It seems we haven't learned anything from 2008 / 2009. We are still talking about sending everyone a check instead of targeting people that actually need help. The most obvious way to help people is the expand who is eligible for unemployment (huge numbers of workers are not) and raise the payouts to a reasonable amount. The mechanism to do this is already there, it just takes the will to do so.

Unfortunately we are still taking about tax breaks, loans, and crazy rules that exclude huge numbers of workers.

The paid sick leave passed last week is an excellent example. It only covers employers from 50-500 employees. That is only about 25% of workers, it is only 2 weeks of pay, and companies will get "paid" back in 3 months with a payroll tax cut. Congress spent all week to pass that.

Meanwhile as Congress bickers 20% of the US population has been mandated to stay home and not go to work.

LA's 110 Harbor Freeway Friday Afternoon at "rush hour"

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Old 03-22-2020, 10:32 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
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We are talking about entire cities / states shutting down for weeks or months. Here in Portland all restaurants are closed, all bars are closed, all sporting events, concerts, shows, and movies are cancelled. More industries are expected to be ordered to close tomorrow as they have in other states.
My city has basically not closed anything. Businesses that are non essential are switching to curbside pickup and drive thrus. This is after the governor ordered closure of all non-essential bussinesses. I think the large cities are highly likely to follow the closure order to the dot, but many of the small (and medium-ish) towns will just alter service. Just as a reference my county has had 3 cases and 1 death of covid-19. I'm sure the more cases the more serious businesses will get about it.

Businesses (I noticed) that are completely closed were kohl's and shoe carnival. Family video was still open, drive thru only.

All I know is that I make ~$1100 a month right now and pay all my bills (mortgage included). No, I don't have health insurance, but help is still help. Rent not being covered comes down to your location and property, but around here $1200 goes a long way.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:49 AM   #20 (permalink)
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We have some restaurants still operating here for take-out only too. However, that means a lot of their employees are laid off. (Hosts, servers, bartenders, busboys, etc) Most of those employees are not eligible for unemployment insurance.

We stopped into our favorite brewery yesterday to pick up some bottles and help support a local small business. They are now open Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday 4-6pm selling bottles. The owner is only person working. His 11 employees have been laid off. They are all part time workers (he can't afford to pay health insurance) so they are not eligible for unemployment. He is out of bottles and labels so what he has in inventory is all he has to sell.

He was trying to stay upbeat but the reality is many small business like his are going to go out of business. Rent and loan payments are still due but money isn't coming in.

EDIT. Yes, $1200 a month is a lot of money in many places. However, it won't even keep people in their homes on the Coasts. The median 2-bedroom unit in my Portland suburb rents for $2,097 a month.


Last edited by JSH; 03-22-2020 at 12:00 PM..
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