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Old 09-25-2009, 10:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
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common sense? stop it all ready

Quote:
Originally Posted by solarguy View Post
The abiotic theory of oil production, which implies essentially limitless oil supplies, is based on crap.

Ooops, did I say that out loud?


Anyway, I'm hoping for a soft landing to peak oil, where we get incrementally better at finding and extracting the remaining dino petro, and (rapidly) incrementally better at conserving and alternative energy sources.

Otherwise, we are in for a rough scenario.

Finest regards,

troy
That is the most sensible thing I have seen written lately about oil and alternative energy sources. Or maybe we should just shut down the oil industry right now and hope that an alternative will appear instantly. I suppose it could happen (in some people's minds). Maybe the "everything runs for free" fairy will appear.

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Old 09-25-2009, 11:29 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zjrog View Post
I have a geologist acquaintance that has thoughts on the abiotic theories. Endless and limitless? No, not at all. But he has seen capped, dry wells checked after 20 years with oil in them. He doesn't want to tender any further thoughts in that regard though.

With more discoveries, of course, buys more time. But there are still plentiful reserves that we aren't allowed to touch. My thinking is to access these resources to be completely independent of foreign petroleum. To me (a retired Navy guy), it comes down to national security, ensuring our enemies don't profit from us. But hey, what do I know...
What about the long-term plan, when we still have oil (and the technology not to have to use it), and they all need it?

Now what say 'ye about National Security? When we're the ones doling out oil supply, I'd say we have more than enough room to profit 10 fold from other countries that are reaping the benefit of US dollars and raping the US in the mean time.

I'm sure someone thought of this before, but I doubt it will come to fruition, at least since science became a non-border affair.
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Old 09-28-2009, 10:55 PM   #13 (permalink)
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The gotcha, energy of activation.

"What about the long-term plan, when we still have oil (and the technology not to have to use it), and they all need it?"


There is some fairly serious discussion going on about how much energy it will take to convert to an economy that doesn't float on fossil petroleum. Some calculate that we have enough energy left to build enough solar panels and windmills (for example) so that we could have a decent and sustainable lifestyle that looks something like what we have now.

Others do the math and think we are already passed the tipping point. Even if we ran as fast as we could toward the perfectly balance eco solution to everything, there's not enough available energy to pull it off. If these people are right, we're headed back to the advanced stone age and the population of the world will drop by 90-99% in the next hundred years. That's your kids and grandkids we're talking about.

The system is big enough, and complex enough, there's probably nobody that can say with certainty who is really right.

So, in short, you people are missionaries. Or early adopters if you don't like the religious analogy. Or the marketing branch of humanity. If you convince enough people to save enough energy in their cars and their houses, your own grandkids might not starve to death.

No pressure...


Finest regards,

troy
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Old 09-28-2009, 11:27 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Troy -

You bring up a valid point, there. One that many try to ignore, or are ignorant of.

One thing that isn't considered though, is that the tipping point moves further into the black with each advancement in eco-technology.

Let's say right now that it would take 400 trillion trillion barrels of oil to make the whole world enough crap-stuff-junk to completely remove any need for oil. That figure only takes into account the oil necessary to do all that, ALL AT ONCE.

Now, lets say that in 15 years, we've built enough crap-stuff-junk to make it so that the remainder only takes another 100 trillion trillion barrels of oil to produce the same effect... We haven't necessarily made 300 trillion trillion barrels' worth of crap-stuff-junk, but we're using the energy from the ones that we have already made, which is helping to make more.

Of course, this shows that the trend that people currently are viewing as linear is actually a curve! The more we do, the less oil we need to continue!

We're still pioneering a new world order, as it were, but even if we're right at the brink of the tipping point, every time a solar panel is built and installed, every time some kid learns to drive correctly, or better yet, ride a bike to the store down the street, we've pushed that tipping point further back into the horizon.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:45 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Old 09-30-2009, 12:28 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christ View Post
Let's say right now that it would take 400 trillion trillion barrels of oil to make the whole world enough crap-stuff-junk to completely remove any need for oil. That figure only takes into account the oil necessary to do all that, ALL AT ONCE.
Where did you get that figure from?
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Old 09-30-2009, 12:36 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Do I really have to answer that? I'm fairly certain that it's obvious from the tone of the post (and the verbs used within) that it's an exaggeration... seriously.

The point of the post wasn't in the numbers... maybe you'd better re-read it a couple times?

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