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Old 07-21-2022, 02:19 AM   #241 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
That can always change, and recently has, but predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.
What has changed recently is that a bunch of pillars behind dollar strength have been knocked out in one go. Now you have a large % of states with trade surpluses shedding dollar assets.

Sure maybe rapprochement with one or more of them can happen but...not holding my breath.

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Old 07-21-2022, 02:56 AM   #242 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5
...but predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.
Can I quote you on that?
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Old 07-21-2022, 03:06 AM   #243 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Can I quote you on that?
My main appreciation of people is honesty, not accuracy, though my expectation is generally both from you.
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Old 07-21-2022, 09:54 AM   #244 (permalink)
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but predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.

I'm expecting a recession,.
Isn't that a Yogi-ism?

Ditto on the recession.
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Old 07-21-2022, 01:22 PM   #245 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Piotrsko View Post
Isn't that a Yogi-ism?

Ditto on the recession.
Funny part is normally specific metrics that point to a recession run inversely to other metrics that would show economic stability or growth.

Both types of metrics are going up together in tandem on a variety of different economic metrics, which means we are in a new world.

As an example stagnation is running side by side with job expansion

Housing in many areas outside the cities (that are very very slowly crashing) are behaving in a similar fashion with stagnation plus stable or increasing housing availablity + cost.

I guess the 5 trillion dollar money expansion (33% increase in debt+ dollar circulation) from the 2020 shadow bank crisis
might take 10 years to fully unravel.

Thankfully 2021+ has been running sub $1T per year expansions but it won’t matter until the largest glut of cash to banks in history works it’s way through causing continued shockwaves in the economy

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Old 07-21-2022, 02:07 PM   #246 (permalink)
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My son who is currently attempting to buy a house might disagree about the state of the market. Easy to find a talking head that agrees with one's perspective.

As for recession, been my experience that for every boom there is a bust separating the booms ergo we're due for a recession . Nothing scientific in my observation other than experiencing a bunch of recessions first hand
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Old 07-21-2022, 02:19 PM   #247 (permalink)
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It seems we roughly follow decade long boom/bust cycles.

The problem as Robert Kiyosaki likes to say, is that a bull market takes the stairs, but bears jump out the window.
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Old 07-21-2022, 04:45 PM   #248 (permalink)
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Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
But we were so poor that we couldn't tell

The cotton was short, and the weeds was tall
But Mr. Roosevelt's a' gonna save us all

Well momma got sick, and daddy got down
The county got the farm, and we moved to town
Poppa got a job with the TVA
We bought a washing machine, and then a Chevrolet

Singing: Song song of the South
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again
Song of the South -- Alabama
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Old 07-27-2022, 01:57 AM   #249 (permalink)
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Even 50 ppm diesel will kill the emission systems on a Euro V or EPA 2008 truck.
No wonder S-50 faded away quickly after Euro-5 came into effect in Brazil in 2012, and in 2013 S-10 was already in use. But anyway, it's been 10 years and DEF is not so easily available inner-city as it is more to the outskirts of Porto Alegre... And at least since 2018 DEF had also been used on those Peugeot Expert and CitroŽn Jumpy vans which became favored by many commercial operators and even some camping enthusiasts.

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