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Old 08-27-2019, 01:30 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Should Volkswagen create an electric revolution?

Is this guy a modern VW fan boy?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/19...p-competitors/

He says that Volkswagen has made various promises and curiously they have gone from promising a couple million sales in 2025 across thirty models to one million sales across seventy models. I will add the author's arguments if nobody else has time before I do.

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Old 08-27-2019, 02:17 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I don't visit that site, so you'll need to include the relevant points if I'm to discuss them.

That said, I don't believe anything any manufacturer says... I only believe what I see sitting on their dealership lots.

EVs aren't profitable at the moment. My guess is that statements about future EV sales are based on certain optimistic assumptions such as battery prices falling at some rate, or increasing in energy density (2 sides of the same coin). The only achilles heel for EVs is how bad the battery sucks compared to a petrol tank. It's worse in every measurable way except perhaps that electricity costs a little less per mile than gasoline.

The future of EVs is almost entirely reliant on batteries getting "better". The only other factor would be gasoline getting comparatively expensive or being banned outright.
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Old 08-27-2019, 02:50 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Won't be much revolution if the 7,500 to 9,500 dollar tax credit goes away.
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Old 08-27-2019, 03:16 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Do you have a specific issue with the site? Well, I have a specific issue with the title, which I put in the subject.

It can bankrupt top competitors, but not bottom competitors?

1. They have advertised 1 - 3 million EV sales in 2025 across 30 - 70 models, but since when do manufacturers meet expectations.
What will the manufacturer of diesels once thought to be without comparison do to electric?
2. The company is building EVs from the ground up on a solid EV platform shared across various models and classes.
Sounds efficient, but will we see 70, 30, or even 10 models by 2025?
3. A board member basically said "We are Volkswagen, we can create the market."
They can also create a car that is easy to maintain.
4. They are spending millions on advertising.
That three-wheeled gas-powered trike talked a great deal of hype...
5. "VW may have some large battery supplies secured with various partners." (italics original)
So far there is not proof of anything.
6. "Volkswagen Group has been leading the rollout of fast charging and superfast charging stations in Europe and the US."
Oh yeah?! Good for you!
7. "VW’s first fully electric models built electric from the ground up target high-volume vehicle classes — essentially a replacement for the Golf (ID.3) and an attractive electric crossover (ID.CROZZ)."
Show me F150 and Expedition competitors and I will care. What about semis?

The article also points out that Toyota has done very little about making a fully-electric car, just the hydrogen nonsense.

I do not see a comment section. Aside from trolls, I can usually find supporting or contradictory information there.

Will Honda save us?

Well, they are doing something. Their Clarity is available in limited quantities, but only has an 89-mile range. They have a hydrogen-powered one that goes four times as far without...energy source replacement? (it is also only available on lease)

Did Toyota ever start selling hydrogen cars in the U.S.? Well, Wikipedia says they sold 2,900, but that may be out-of-date:
Quote:
Toyota Mirai - 1,700 (down 7.5% from 1,838)
Honda Clarity Fuel Cell - 624 (up from 431 a year ago, according to our estimations)
https://www.insideevs.com/news/34237...-2300-in-2018/

So, Toyota sold 3,538 in two years and Honda sold 1,075 in the same time frame.

How much energy does it cost to produce one kilogram of hydrogen, the equivalent of a gallon of gasoline. I know that the cheapest method involves natural gas, but what about electrolysis?

Quote:
[C]urrent best processes for water electrolysis have an effective electrical efficiency of 70-80%, so that producing 1 kg of hydrogen (which has a specific energy of 143 MJ/kg or about 40 kWh/kg) requires 50–55 kWh of electricity. At an electricity cost of $0.06/kWh, as set out in the Department of Energy hydrogen production targets for 2015, the hydrogen cost is $3/kg. With the range of natural gas prices from 2016 as shown in the graph (Hydrogen Production Tech Team Roadmap, November 2017) putting the cost of SMR hydrogen at between $1.20 and $1.50
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_economy

Yeah. Okay. I do not know how much it costs, but we cannot afford not to?
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Old 08-27-2019, 03:55 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist View Post
Do you have a specific issue with the site?
My specific issue is that they are an echochamber of absurdity with an occasional few sentences making rational/factual sense. That in itself isn't the problem though. The problem is the site owners delete any comments that even remotely question the veracity or reasonableness of their absurd and factually false articles.

A comment like "death to the Koch bros" would be encouraged, but a comment like "maybe consumer choice has something to do with the popularity of fossil fuel consumption, and it isn't entirely a Big Oil conspiracy" will be removed.

Being wrong is inevitable and acceptable. Being willfully wrong and deceptive is inexcusable.

Besides all that, they don't do their own news research, they put their editorial commentary on news they collect from other sources. Why not just link to those other sources instead of have it filtered through religious zealots?

Quote:
1. They have advertised 1 - 3 million EV sales in 2025 across 30 - 70 models, but since when do manufacturers meet expectations.

As I said, I'll believe it when I see it. VW sells 11 million vehicles a year, so the claim is 10-30% of sales. The other question is what do they consider to be "electric"? Do hybrids count in their figures?

6. "Volkswagen Group has been leading the rollout of fast charging and superfast charging stations in Europe and the US."

...as agreed to as part of their Dieselgate settlement. Nothing like negotiating ownership in a Oligopolistic business as punishment for wrongdoing, even if it is unprofitable at the moment.

7. "VW’s first fully electric models built electric from the ground up target high-volume vehicle classes

The Golf EV is a very good car, so they are capable of making such a product.
Quote:
The article also points out that Toyota has done very little about making a fully-electric car, just the hydrogen nonsense.
In my view, a very smart move as the moment to profit from EVs has not yet arrived.

Quote:
Well, they are doing something. Their Clarity is available in limited quantities, but only has an 89-mile range. They have a hydrogen-powered one that goes four times as far without...energy source replacement? (it is also only available on lease)

Did Toyota ever start selling hydrogen cars in the U.S.? Well, Wikipedia says they sold 2,900, but that may be out-of-date:
https://www.insideevs.com/news/34237...-2300-in-2018/

So, Toyota sold 3,538 in two years and Honda sold 1,075 in the same time frame.

How much energy does it cost to produce one kilogram of hydrogen, the equivalent of a gallon of gasoline. I know that the cheapest method involves natural gas, but what about electrolysis?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_economy

Yeah. Okay. I do not know how much it costs, but we cannot afford not to?
Hydrogen cars are a joke, as evidenced by the (nearly non-existent) numbers sold, by the (non)availability of refueling, and the fact that they run on what is essentially natural gas. While labs might be able to obtain 80% efficiencies for electrolysis of water, typical is something like 35%.
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Old 08-27-2019, 04:10 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Good points! Should Volkswagen go ahead and make the mistakes so that Toyota does not have to?

What are the chances Toyota would make the same mistakes VW would?

Since the original article is based on fantasy, as I recall, saltwater is supposed to undergo electrolysis more efficient than freshwater. So, set up hydrogen plants on the coasts powered by burning millennials (They are a renewable resource!) and their water vapor exhaust will lead to ever so slightly more rain!

Less saltwater, fewer millennials, and more freshwater! Everybody wins!
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Old 08-27-2019, 04:49 PM   #7 (permalink)
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$3 per kg of H
Takes about 2kg to equal the energy in a gallon of gasoline.
So $6 per gallon at cost, not counting taxes, over head, profit.
So it could really end up costing upwards of $10 to replace a gallon of gasoline. And that's a deal compared to buying bottled hydrogen at $50 per kg for a local welding shop.
Natural gas steam reforming is the cheapest way to produce hydrogen.

VW hasn't made an easy to maintain car since they went liquid cooled.

Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
My specific issue is that they are an echochamber of absurdity with an occasional few sentences making rational/factual sense. That in itself isn't the problem though. The problem is the site owners delete any comments that even remotely question the veracity or reasonableness of their absurd and factually false articles.

A comment like "death to the Koch bros" would be encouraged, but a comment like "maybe consumer choice has something to do with the popularity of fossil fuel consumption, and it isn't entirely a Big Oil conspiracy" will be removed.
That means they have to shut down discussion because they have no valid logical points to argue and thus becomes a lightning rod for extremists.

Kind of like the myNissanleaf Web site. It sickens some of them to think that some one might own and occasionally drive a diesel truck or god forbid burn wood is among them.

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Old 08-27-2019, 06:09 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Vastly cheaper H than a welding shop, but I heard that is the cheapest place to purchase He.
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Old 08-27-2019, 06:16 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Anyways, in regards to the thread question of "Should Volkswagen create an electric revolution?", the answer is clearly maybe, but probably not.

Tesla is already leading the "revolution" in addition to Chinese companies (in China). Tesla is the canary in the EV coal mine. They have among the cheapest parts costs (motor and battery for example) while having among the highest performance. If Tesla can't be profitable, it's extremely unlikely anyone else can be. At least for now. Unless VW has some ace up their sleeve that has been tightly guarded, they aren't going to be more successful than Tesla (which remains to be seen if they can be successful).

So, should VW commit to EVs? Probably not. They should commit to build what consumers demand, and which turns a profit for VW. It isn't the responsibility of business to build "virtuous" products. It's the responsibility of the people to determine what products to demand.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:27 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Tim Pool recommends https://www.newsguardtech.com/ so I had a look:
Quote:
Our Green-Red ratings signal if a website is trying to get it right or instead has a hidden agenda or knowingly publishes falsehoods or propaganda.
....
NewsGuard also provides “Nutrition Label” write-ups of the more than 2,000 news and information sites that account for 96% of online engagement in the U.S. in English.

A SWAT team of NewsGuard analysts operates 24/7 to identify suddenly trending purveyors of unreliable news among sites that NewsGuard has not yet rated and warn internet users about them in real time.

Our goal is to give everyone the information they need to be better informed about which news sources they can rely on—or can’t rely on.
I submitted cleantechnica.com but I just got "Thanks for submitting a site!" in response. I think you have to install a browser plug-in or something.

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