Solar cell panel prices to drop soon..

[Xringer]

Here's a bit of good news.
Technology Review: A Price Drop for Solar Panels

I would be really nice to see prices get down around $2 a watt..

[Ryland]

it's nice to know that although a price jump of ten fold of silicon can raise the price of a finished panel by 20%, that a increase in silicon production 9 times what we currently have will drop the price to less then half of what it is, of course they are not saying what that increase in production will cost, because the current slump in production of silicon is not due to a lack of money.
and the solar cell it's self is only about 60% of the cost of a panel, you have the aluminum frame, the tempered glass, the safety glass adhesive that glues it together, the silver solder and wire, the copper wire, the stainless steel fasteners, I mean, these things are made to last 100 years, and it should stay that way, I plan to keep using my solar panels for the rest of my life.

[NeilBlanchard]

Hi,

Solar PV shingles or metal roofing made from thin film will also lower the price a lot. NanoSolar "prints" a coating on metal films -- they do not use silicon wafers at all! And, they do not use frames, or glass, and they do not have the same uplift and dead load problems that panels have. So in the end, they are a LOT less expensive!

I have heard the $1/watt number mentioned, for these types of PV.

[Ryland]

If you go just by the press releases then $1 per watt solar should be here any minute now, if you talk to people who work in the industry and have reviewed their test data, you will hear that you shouldn't get your hopes up about $1 per watt solar, even at $5 per watt it's still a good investment, better then money in the bank.
I wish I would have bought more pv's when they were cheaper, about 5-7 years ago.

[nowhhs]

I'll believe it when I see it. Lower prices have been promised for 20 years, back when I paid $5 in 1990. Not much has changed since then.

[beatr911]

I'm still waiting for a payback of much less than 25 years including incentives. With the western Washington insolation rate we have to significantly upsize our array compared to much of the country, also we still pay about .09.

Not long ago, with the incentives in California it moved the pay back to 5 years or less. I think they are still in effect. That's a no-brainer to me, seems like they should've been sprouting up everywhere.

[nowhhs]

It is a no-brainer, unfortunately too many people have no brain. I think the initial investment is too much for many, lots of people are struggling just to keep their house. But overall at least half the houses should have panels on them in CA.

[Axaday]

Originally Posted by Ryland

If you go just by the press releases then $1 per watt solar should be here any minute now, if you talk to people who work in the industry and have reviewed their test data, you will hear that you shouldn't get your hopes up about $1 per watt solar, even at $5 per watt it's still a good investment, better then money in the bank.
I wish I would have bought more pv's when they were cheaper, about 5-7 years ago.

Better than money in the bank? I just ran numbers on $1 per watt and it looks like a 30 year payoff for me. So at $5 per watt, it is a 150 year payoff. I'd rather have money in the bank. I know electricity prices are going up and will continue to go up, but that doesn't sound like a sure bet to me.

At $1 per watt, on the other hand, sign me up ASAP.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by Axaday

I just ran numbers on $1 per watt and it looks like a 30 year payoff for me. I'd rather have money in the bank. I know electricity prices are going up and will continue to go up, but that doesn't sound like a sure bet to me.

At $1 per watt, on the other hand, sign me up ASAP.

I don't really understand this statement

Electric here is $0.11 per kwhr
$1 per watt means $1000 per kwhr capable panel 1000watt an hr =1kwhr
$1000/$.11 = 9090.90 hrs to payoff

9090.9090 / 8 hrs of light a day / 365 = 3.09 years to payoff

Obviously assuming there is no inverter, battery packs, ect.

What am I missing?

[roflwaffle]

Originally Posted by nowhhs

I'll believe it when I see it. Lower prices have been promised for 20 years, back when I paid $5 in 1990. Not much has changed since then.

Except for the price of electricity from utilities.

Local prices for whole systems seem to range from ~$6.40/W w/o rebates/tax breaks to $3.60/W w/ 'em.